Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Andrey Prokopov
Goals
28%
27%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.031.392.42safe0.07–2.000.53–2.250.60–4.25safer0.00–2.260.28–2.500.10–4.75actual0.003.003.00
Shots on target
33%
14%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction3.564.327.88safe1.71–5.422.61–6.034.32–11.45safer1.21–5.922.15–6.503.35–12.42actual3.006.009.00
Total shots
21%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction9.9213.3723.30safe6.22–13.6310.00–16.7516.22–30.38safer5.19–14.669.07–17.6814.25–32.34actual12.0011.0023.00
Shots in box
30%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction6.427.9414.35safe3.90–8.935.63–10.249.53–19.17safer3.04–9.804.84–11.037.87–20.83actual9.007.0016.00
Blocked shots
26%
16%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.353.375.72safe0.76–3.931.96–4.792.72–8.72safer0.23–4.471.47–5.271.70–9.74actual3.002.005.00
Corners
35%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.355.019.35safe2.14–6.553.03–6.995.17–13.54safer1.55–7.152.49–7.524.04–14.67actual4.004.008.00
Possession %
89%
homeawayprediction39.5359.81safe33.21–45.8553.49–66.12safer31.62–47.4551.89–67.72actual40.0060.00
Passes
94%
homeawaytotalprediction322501823safe256–387436–566693–953safer239–405419–583658–988actual341561902
Pass accuracy %
94%
homeawayprediction60.4473.28safe56.23–64.6668.77–77.79safer54.93–65.9667.44–79.12
Fouls
73%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8310.3824.22safe10.98–16.697.44–13.3318.41–30.02safer10.09–17.576.52–14.2516.61–31.82actual18.0012.0030.00
Offsides
67%
15%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction3.191.714.90safe1.98–4.400.55–2.872.52–7.27safer1.63–4.740.21–3.201.85–7.95actual5.000.005.00
Yellow cards
48%
20%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.311.904.21safe1.26–3.370.78–3.022.04–6.39safer0.99–3.640.49–3.311.48–6.95actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.090.21safe0.00–0.270.00–0.290.00–0.55safer0.00–0.420.00–0.430.00–0.85actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
52%
17%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.072.415.48safe1.66–4.480.86–3.972.51–8.45safer1.27–4.870.43–4.401.69–9.27actual3.002.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.03 0.07–2.00 0.00–2.26 | 0.00 | 1.39 0.53–2.25 0.28–2.50 | 3.00 | 2.42 0.60–4.25 0.10–4.75 | 3.00 | 28% 27% 45% |
| Shots on target | 3.56 1.71–5.42 1.21–5.92 | 3.00 | 4.32 2.61–6.03 2.15–6.50 | 6.00 | 7.88 4.32–11.45 3.35–12.42 | 9.00 | 33% 14% 53% |
| Total shots | 9.92 6.22–13.63 5.19–14.66 | 12.00 | 13.37 10.00–16.75 9.07–17.68 | 11.00 | 23.30 16.22–30.38 14.25–32.34 | 23.00 | 21% 73% |
| Shots in box | 6.42 3.90–8.93 3.04–9.80 | 9.00 | 7.94 5.63–10.24 4.84–11.03 | 7.00 | 14.35 9.53–19.17 7.87–20.83 | 16.00 | 30% 61% |
| Blocked shots | 2.35 0.76–3.93 0.23–4.47 | 3.00 | 3.37 1.96–4.79 1.47–5.27 | 2.00 | 5.72 2.72–8.72 1.70–9.74 | 5.00 | 26% 16% 58% |
| Corners | 4.35 2.14–6.55 1.55–7.15 | 4.00 | 5.01 3.03–6.99 2.49–7.52 | 4.00 | 9.35 5.17–13.54 4.04–14.67 | 8.00 | 35% 52% |
| Possession % | 39.53 33.21–45.85 31.62–47.45 | 40.00 | 59.81 53.49–66.12 51.89–67.72 | 60.00 | — | — | 89% |
| Passes | 322 256–387 239–405 | 341 | 501 436–566 419–583 | 561 | 823 693–953 658–988 | 902 | 94% |
| Pass accuracy % | 60.44 56.23–64.66 54.93–65.96 | — | 73.28 68.77–77.79 67.44–79.12 | — | — | — | 94% |
| Fouls | 13.83 10.98–16.69 10.09–17.57 | 18.00 | 10.38 7.44–13.33 6.52–14.25 | 12.00 | 24.22 18.41–30.02 16.61–31.82 | 30.00 | 73% 21% |
| Offsides | 3.19 1.98–4.40 1.63–4.74 | 5.00 | 1.71 0.55–2.87 0.21–3.20 | 0.00 | 4.90 2.52–7.27 1.85–7.95 | 5.00 | 67% 15% 18% |
| Yellow cards | 2.31 1.26–3.37 0.99–3.64 | 1.00 | 1.90 0.78–3.02 0.49–3.31 | 3.00 | 4.21 2.04–6.39 1.48–6.95 | 4.00 | 48% 20% 32% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.21 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.85 | 0.00 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.07 1.66–4.48 1.27–4.87 | 3.00 | 2.41 0.86–3.97 0.43–4.40 | 2.00 | 5.48 2.51–8.45 1.69–9.27 | 5.00 | 52% 17% 31% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.