Premier League·Regular Season - 9·
Premier League·Regular Season - 9·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
34%
27%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.221.322.54safe0.26–2.180.46–2.180.72–4.36safer0.00–2.440.22–2.430.21–4.87actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
45%
13%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.644.519.15safe2.79–6.502.80–6.225.59–12.72safer2.29–7.002.34–6.694.62–13.69actual3.006.009.00
Total shots
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6613.8127.47safe9.96–17.3710.43–17.1820.39–34.55safer8.93–18.409.50–18.1118.43–36.51actual11.0017.0028.00
Shots in box
51%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction9.849.2119.04safe7.32–12.356.91–11.5114.23–23.86safer6.45–13.226.11–12.3112.57–25.52actual6.0010.0016.00
Blocked shots
47%
15%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.863.547.39safe2.27–5.442.12–4.954.39–10.39safer1.74–5.971.64–5.443.37–11.41actual2.001.003.00
Corners
48%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.974.619.58safe2.77–7.182.63–6.595.40–13.77safer2.17–7.772.09–7.134.27–14.90actual3.001.004.00
Possession %
31%
64%
homeawayprediction46.8453.49safe40.52–53.1647.17–59.81safer38.93–54.7545.57–61.40actual56.0044.00
Passes
41%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction405432837safe340–470367–497707–967safer322–488350–514672–1002actual496385881
Pass accuracy %
36%
60%
homeawayprediction67.3069.77safe63.09–71.5265.27–74.28safer61.79–72.8263.93–75.61
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6112.9825.59safe9.75–15.4610.04–15.9319.79–31.39safer8.87–16.359.12–16.8517.99–33.20actual18.0019.0037.00
Offsides
51%
21%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.121.563.68safe0.91–3.330.40–2.731.31–6.06safer0.56–3.670.07–3.060.63–6.73actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
44%
20%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.302.104.40safe1.24–3.350.98–3.222.22–6.58safer0.97–3.620.69–3.511.66–7.14actual5.004.009.00
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.100.23safe0.00–0.290.00–0.290.00–0.57safer0.00–0.440.00–0.430.00–0.87actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
40%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.113.246.35safe1.70–4.521.69–4.803.38–9.32safer1.31–4.911.26–5.232.56–10.14actual5.002.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.22 0.26–2.18 0.00–2.44 | 1.00 | 1.32 0.46–2.18 0.22–2.43 | 1.00 | 2.54 0.72–4.36 0.21–4.87 | 2.00 | 34% 27% 39% |
| Shots on target | 4.64 2.79–6.50 2.29–7.00 | 3.00 | 4.51 2.80–6.22 2.34–6.69 | 6.00 | 9.15 5.59–12.72 4.62–13.69 | 9.00 | 45% 13% 42% |
| Total shots | 13.66 9.96–17.37 8.93–18.40 | 11.00 | 13.81 10.43–17.18 9.50–18.11 | 17.00 | 27.47 20.39–34.55 18.43–36.51 | 28.00 | 45% 47% |
| Shots in box | 9.84 7.32–12.35 6.45–13.22 | 6.00 | 9.21 6.91–11.51 6.11–12.31 | 10.00 | 19.04 14.23–23.86 12.57–25.52 | 16.00 | 51% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 3.86 2.27–5.44 1.74–5.97 | 2.00 | 3.54 2.12–4.95 1.64–5.44 | 1.00 | 7.39 4.39–10.39 3.37–11.41 | 3.00 | 47% 15% 38% |
| Corners | 4.97 2.77–7.18 2.17–7.77 | 3.00 | 4.61 2.63–6.59 2.09–7.13 | 1.00 | 9.58 5.40–13.77 4.27–14.90 | 4.00 | 48% 39% |
| Possession % | 46.84 40.52–53.16 38.93–54.75 | 56.00 | 53.49 47.17–59.81 45.57–61.40 | 44.00 | — | — | 31% 64% |
| Passes | 405 340–470 322–488 | 496 | 432 367–497 350–514 | 385 | 837 707–967 672–1002 | 881 | 41% 59% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.30 63.09–71.52 61.79–72.82 | — | 69.77 65.27–74.28 63.93–75.61 | — | — | — | 36% 60% |
| Fouls | 12.61 9.75–15.46 8.87–16.35 | 18.00 | 12.98 10.04–15.93 9.12–16.85 | 19.00 | 25.59 19.79–31.39 17.99–33.20 | 37.00 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 2.12 0.91–3.33 0.56–3.67 | 0.00 | 1.56 0.40–2.73 0.07–3.06 | 1.00 | 3.68 1.31–6.06 0.63–6.73 | 1.00 | 51% 21% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 2.30 1.24–3.35 0.97–3.62 | 5.00 | 2.10 0.98–3.22 0.69–3.51 | 4.00 | 4.40 2.22–6.58 1.66–7.14 | 9.00 | 44% 20% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.23 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.87 | 0.00 | 81% |
| GK saves | 3.11 1.70–4.52 1.31–4.91 | 5.00 | 3.24 1.69–4.80 1.26–5.23 | 2.00 | 6.35 3.38–9.32 2.56–10.14 | 7.00 | 40% 16% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.