Premier League·Regular Season - 18·
Premier League·Regular Season - 18·Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
26%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.082.52safe0.48–2.420.22–1.930.70–4.35safer0.23–2.670.00–2.160.22–4.83
Shots on target
55%
13%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.884.018.89safe3.01–6.742.27–5.755.28–12.49safer2.52–7.231.80–6.224.33–13.45
Total shots
73%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5911.0525.64safe10.66–18.517.49–14.6218.16–33.13safer9.57–19.606.53–15.5816.11–35.18
Shots in box
68%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction9.116.7915.90safe6.17–12.054.11–9.4810.28–21.53safer5.34–12.883.38–10.218.71–23.09
Blocked shots
62%
14%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction3.902.586.48safe2.02–5.780.93–4.232.94–10.01safer1.47–6.320.43–4.721.91–11.05
Corners
56%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.454.449.89safe3.24–7.662.44–6.445.68–14.10safer2.66–8.241.91–6.984.57–15.21
Possession %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction49.8950.00safe43.10–56.6843.22–56.79safer41.43–58.3541.55–58.46
Passes
54%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction442428869safe374–509361–494736–1003safer356–527344–512700–1039
Pass accuracy %
31%
64%
homeawayprediction67.9471.28safe63.91–71.9766.96–75.61safer62.62–73.2665.65–76.92
Fouls
40%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8715.8030.67safe12.04–17.7112.85–18.7424.89–36.45safer11.28–18.4712.10–19.4923.38–37.96
Offsides
34%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.732.003.73safe0.57–2.890.91–3.101.48–5.99safer0.27–3.190.62–3.390.89–6.57
Yellow cards
28%
17%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.182.955.13safe1.13–3.231.82–4.082.95–7.31safer0.86–3.491.53–4.372.39–7.86
Red cards
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.170.29safe0.00–0.280.00–0.350.00–0.63safer0.00–0.430.00–0.490.00–0.92
GK saves
32%
16%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.823.446.25safe1.38–4.251.88–4.993.26–9.25safer0.99–4.641.46–5.422.45–10.06
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.45 0.48–2.42 0.23–2.67 | 1.08 0.22–1.93 0.00–2.16 | 2.52 0.70–4.35 0.22–4.83 | 46% 26% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.88 3.01–6.74 2.52–7.23 | 4.01 2.27–5.75 1.80–6.22 | 8.89 5.28–12.49 4.33–13.45 | 55% 13% 32% |
| Total shots | 14.59 10.66–18.51 9.57–19.60 | 11.05 7.49–14.62 6.53–15.58 | 25.64 18.16–33.13 16.11–35.18 | 73% 21% |
| Shots in box | 9.11 6.17–12.05 5.34–12.88 | 6.79 4.11–9.48 3.38–10.21 | 15.90 10.28–21.53 8.71–23.09 | 68% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 3.90 2.02–5.78 1.47–6.32 | 2.58 0.93–4.23 0.43–4.72 | 6.48 2.94–10.01 1.91–11.05 | 62% 14% 23% |
| Corners | 5.45 3.24–7.66 2.66–8.24 | 4.44 2.44–6.44 1.91–6.98 | 9.89 5.68–14.10 4.57–15.21 | 56% 31% |
| Possession % | 49.89 43.10–56.68 41.43–58.35 | 50.00 43.22–56.79 41.55–58.46 | — | 47% 48% |
| Passes | 442 374–509 356–527 | 428 361–494 344–512 | 869 736–1003 700–1039 | 54% 45% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.94 63.91–71.97 62.62–73.26 | 71.28 66.96–75.61 65.65–76.92 | — | 31% 64% |
| Fouls | 14.87 12.04–17.71 11.28–18.47 | 15.80 12.85–18.74 12.10–19.49 | 30.67 24.89–36.45 23.38–37.96 | 40% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.73 0.57–2.89 0.27–3.19 | 2.00 0.91–3.10 0.62–3.39 | 3.73 1.48–5.99 0.89–6.57 | 34% 21% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 2.18 1.13–3.23 0.86–3.49 | 2.95 1.82–4.08 1.53–4.37 | 5.13 2.95–7.31 2.39–7.86 | 28% 17% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.17 0.00–0.35 0.00–0.49 | 0.29 0.00–0.63 0.00–0.92 | 77% 14% |
| GK saves | 2.82 1.38–4.25 0.99–4.64 | 3.44 1.88–4.99 1.46–5.42 | 6.25 3.26–9.25 2.45–10.06 | 32% 16% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.