Premier League·Regular Season - 9·
Premier League·Regular Season - 9·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Kirill Levnikov
Goals
22%
25%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction0.961.642.60safe0.00–1.920.78–2.500.78–4.42safer0.00–2.180.54–2.750.27–4.93actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
22%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction3.405.108.51safe1.55–5.263.40–6.814.94–12.07safer1.05–5.762.93–7.283.98–13.04actual6.001.007.00
Total shots
28%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8113.2224.03safe7.10–14.519.84–16.6016.94–31.11safer6.07–15.548.91–17.5314.98–33.07actual18.0016.0034.00
Shots in box
20%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction7.1210.0317.15safe4.60–9.637.73–12.3412.34–21.97safer3.74–10.506.94–13.1310.67–23.63actual11.009.0020.00
Blocked shots
25%
14%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction2.683.936.62safe1.10–4.272.52–5.353.62–9.61safer0.57–4.802.03–5.832.60–10.64actual5.007.0012.00
Corners
25%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction4.195.8510.04safe1.99–6.403.87–7.835.86–14.23safer1.39–6.993.33–8.374.73–15.36actual3.005.008.00
Possession %
95%
homeawayprediction35.9163.52safe29.60–42.2357.20–69.84safer28.00–43.8355.61–71.44actual39.0061.00
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction277489766safe212–342425–554636–896safer194–360407–571601–931actual287438725
Pass accuracy %
99%
homeawayprediction59.8678.49safe55.65–64.0873.99–83.00safer54.34–65.3872.66–84.33
Fouls
71%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction15.3611.9227.28safe12.51–18.228.98–14.8721.48–33.09safer11.62–19.108.06–15.7819.68–34.89actual19.0016.0035.00
Offsides
39%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.992.054.05safe0.78–3.200.89–3.211.67–6.42safer0.44–3.550.56–3.551.00–7.09actual2.003.005.00
Yellow cards
57%
18%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.651.784.42safe1.59–3.700.66–2.902.25–6.60safer1.32–3.970.37–3.191.68–7.16actual5.004.009.00
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.150.110.26safe0.00–0.300.00–0.300.00–0.60safer0.00–0.450.00–0.450.00–0.90actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
49%
18%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.792.345.13safe1.37–4.200.79–3.902.16–8.10safer0.98–4.590.36–4.331.34–8.92actual1.006.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.96 0.00–1.92 0.00–2.18 | 0.00 | 1.64 0.78–2.50 0.54–2.75 | 0.00 | 2.60 0.78–4.42 0.27–4.93 | 0.00 | 22% 25% 53% |
| Shots on target | 3.40 1.55–5.26 1.05–5.76 | 6.00 | 5.10 3.40–6.81 2.93–7.28 | 1.00 | 8.51 4.94–12.07 3.98–13.04 | 7.00 | 22% 66% |
| Total shots | 10.81 7.10–14.51 6.07–15.54 | 18.00 | 13.22 9.84–16.60 8.91–17.53 | 16.00 | 24.03 16.94–31.11 14.98–33.07 | 34.00 | 28% 65% |
| Shots in box | 7.12 4.60–9.63 3.74–10.50 | 11.00 | 10.03 7.73–12.34 6.94–13.13 | 9.00 | 17.15 12.34–21.97 10.67–23.63 | 20.00 | 20% 72% |
| Blocked shots | 2.68 1.10–4.27 0.57–4.80 | 5.00 | 3.93 2.52–5.35 2.03–5.83 | 7.00 | 6.62 3.62–9.61 2.60–10.64 | 12.00 | 25% 14% 61% |
| Corners | 4.19 1.99–6.40 1.39–6.99 | 3.00 | 5.85 3.87–7.83 3.33–8.37 | 5.00 | 10.04 5.86–14.23 4.73–15.36 | 8.00 | 25% 64% |
| Possession % | 35.91 29.60–42.23 28.00–43.83 | 39.00 | 63.52 57.20–69.84 55.61–71.44 | 61.00 | — | — | 95% |
| Passes | 277 212–342 194–360 | 287 | 489 425–554 407–571 | 438 | 766 636–896 601–931 | 725 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 59.86 55.65–64.08 54.34–65.38 | — | 78.49 73.99–83.00 72.66–84.33 | — | — | — | 99% |
| Fouls | 15.36 12.51–18.22 11.62–19.10 | 19.00 | 11.92 8.98–14.87 8.06–15.78 | 16.00 | 27.28 21.48–33.09 19.68–34.89 | 35.00 | 71% 22% |
| Offsides | 1.99 0.78–3.20 0.44–3.55 | 2.00 | 2.05 0.89–3.21 0.56–3.55 | 3.00 | 4.05 1.67–6.42 1.00–7.09 | 5.00 | 39% 21% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 2.65 1.59–3.70 1.32–3.97 | 5.00 | 1.78 0.66–2.90 0.37–3.19 | 4.00 | 4.42 2.25–6.60 1.68–7.16 | 9.00 | 57% 18% 25% |
| Red cards | 0.15 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.26 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.90 | 0.00 | 79% |
| GK saves | 2.79 1.37–4.20 0.98–4.59 | 1.00 | 2.34 0.79–3.90 0.36–4.33 | 6.00 | 5.13 2.16–8.10 1.34–8.92 | 7.00 | 49% 18% 34% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+