Premier League·Regular Season - 27·
Premier League·Regular Season - 27·Predicted match statistics
Goals
70%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.210.782.99safe1.24–3.180.00–1.631.17–4.81safer0.99–3.430.00–1.860.69–5.29
Shots on target
80%
homeawaytotalprediction6.433.329.76safe4.57–8.301.58–5.076.15–13.36safer4.08–8.791.11–5.535.20–14.32
Total shots
90%
homeawaytotalprediction17.3810.2227.60safe13.45–21.306.66–13.7820.11–35.09safer12.36–22.395.70–14.7418.06–37.14
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction12.096.3218.41safe9.15–15.043.64–9.0012.79–24.03safer8.32–15.872.90–9.7311.22–25.60
Blocked shots
71%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction4.642.617.25safe2.76–6.520.96–4.263.71–10.79safer2.21–7.070.46–4.762.68–11.82
Corners
83%
homeawaytotalprediction7.173.5610.73safe4.96–9.391.56–5.566.52–14.94safer4.38–9.961.02–6.095.41–16.05
Possession %
97%
homeawayprediction66.4133.39safe59.62–73.2026.61–40.18safer57.95–74.8724.94–41.85
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction566253819safe499–633186–319685–953safer481–652169–337650–988
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction78.1864.50safe74.15–82.2160.18–68.83safer72.86–83.5058.87–70.14
Fouls
17%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0416.6628.69safe9.20–14.8713.71–19.6022.91–34.47safer8.44–15.6312.96–20.3521.41–35.98
Offsides
35%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.882.103.98safe0.72–3.041.01–3.201.73–6.24safer0.42–3.340.72–3.481.14–6.83
Yellow cards
17%
15%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction1.703.234.93safe0.65–2.752.10–4.362.75–7.11safer0.38–3.021.81–4.652.19–7.66
Red cards
75%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.200.30safe0.00–0.260.01–0.390.00–0.65safer0.00–0.410.00–0.520.00–0.93
GK saves
20%
13%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction2.444.006.45safe1.01–3.882.45–5.563.46–9.44safer0.62–4.272.02–5.982.64–10.25
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.21 1.24–3.18 0.99–3.43 | 0.78 0.00–1.63 0.00–1.86 | 2.99 1.17–4.81 0.69–5.29 | 70% 18% |
| Shots on target | 6.43 4.57–8.30 4.08–8.79 | 3.32 1.58–5.07 1.11–5.53 | 9.76 6.15–13.36 5.20–14.32 | 80% |
| Total shots | 17.38 13.45–21.30 12.36–22.39 | 10.22 6.66–13.78 5.70–14.74 | 27.60 20.11–35.09 18.06–37.14 | 90% |
| Shots in box | 12.09 9.15–15.04 8.32–15.87 | 6.32 3.64–9.00 2.90–9.73 | 18.41 12.79–24.03 11.22–25.60 | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 4.64 2.76–6.52 2.21–7.07 | 2.61 0.96–4.26 0.46–4.76 | 7.25 3.71–10.79 2.68–11.82 | 71% 17% |
| Corners | 7.17 4.96–9.39 4.38–9.96 | 3.56 1.56–5.56 1.02–6.09 | 10.73 6.52–14.94 5.41–16.05 | 83% |
| Possession % | 66.41 59.62–73.20 57.95–74.87 | 33.39 26.61–40.18 24.94–41.85 | — | 97% |
| Passes | 566 499–633 481–652 | 253 186–319 169–337 | 819 685–953 650–988 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.18 74.15–82.21 72.86–83.50 | 64.50 60.18–68.83 58.87–70.14 | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 12.04 9.20–14.87 8.44–15.63 | 16.66 13.71–19.60 12.96–20.35 | 28.69 22.91–34.47 21.41–35.98 | 17% 78% |
| Offsides | 1.88 0.72–3.04 0.42–3.34 | 2.10 1.01–3.20 0.72–3.48 | 3.98 1.73–6.24 1.14–6.83 | 35% 21% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 1.70 0.65–2.75 0.38–3.02 | 3.23 2.10–4.36 1.81–4.65 | 4.93 2.75–7.11 2.19–7.66 | 17% 15% 68% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.20 0.01–0.39 0.00–0.52 | 0.30 0.00–0.65 0.00–0.93 | 75% 17% |
| GK saves | 2.44 1.01–3.88 0.62–4.27 | 4.00 2.45–5.56 2.02–5.98 | 6.45 3.46–9.44 2.64–10.25 | 20% 13% 66% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.