Premier League·Regular Season - 9·
Premier League·Regular Season - 9·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
40%
27%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.202.53safe0.37–2.300.34–2.060.71–4.36safer0.11–2.560.09–2.300.20–4.86actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
61%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.893.588.47safe3.03–6.751.87–5.284.90–12.03safer2.53–7.241.40–5.753.93–13.00actual4.004.008.00
Total shots
72%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5911.1325.71safe10.88–18.297.75–14.5018.63–32.80safer9.85–19.326.82–15.4416.67–34.76actual14.008.0022.00
Shots in box
52%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction8.547.8116.35safe6.03–11.065.51–10.1111.54–21.17safer5.16–11.924.71–10.919.88–22.83actual8.007.0015.00
Blocked shots
47%
16%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.513.216.72safe1.92–5.091.79–4.623.72–9.72safer1.39–5.631.31–5.112.70–10.74actual3.001.004.00
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.844.6610.50safe3.63–8.042.68–6.646.32–14.68safer3.04–8.642.15–7.185.18–15.82actual10.004.0014.00
Possession %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction46.0754.30safe39.75–52.3947.99–60.62safer38.16–53.9846.39–62.22actual56.0044.00
Passes
23%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction366450816safe301–431385–515686–946safer283–449368–532651–981actual437313750
Pass accuracy %
43%
52%
homeawayprediction66.7867.77safe62.57–71.0063.26–72.27safer61.26–72.3061.93–73.60
Fouls
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8113.2125.01safe8.95–14.6610.26–16.1519.21–30.82safer8.06–15.559.34–17.0717.41–32.62actual13.0018.0031.00
Offsides
30%
19%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.852.414.26safe0.64–3.061.25–3.571.89–6.63safer0.29–3.400.92–3.911.21–7.31actual3.001.004.00
Yellow cards
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.951.953.90safe0.90–3.010.83–3.071.72–6.07safer0.62–3.280.54–3.361.16–6.64actual2.003.005.00
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.100.21safe0.00–0.260.00–0.300.00–0.56safer0.00–0.420.00–0.440.00–0.86actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
31%
17%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.503.155.65safe1.09–3.921.60–4.712.68–8.62safer0.70–4.301.17–5.141.86–9.44actual3.003.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 0.37–2.30 0.11–2.56 | 1.00 | 1.20 0.34–2.06 0.09–2.30 | 1.00 | 2.53 0.71–4.36 0.20–4.86 | 2.00 | 40% 27% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.89 3.03–6.75 2.53–7.24 | 4.00 | 3.58 1.87–5.28 1.40–5.75 | 4.00 | 8.47 4.90–12.03 3.93–13.00 | 8.00 | 61% 26% |
| Total shots | 14.59 10.88–18.29 9.85–19.32 | 14.00 | 11.13 7.75–14.50 6.82–15.44 | 8.00 | 25.71 18.63–32.80 16.67–34.76 | 22.00 | 72% 22% |
| Shots in box | 8.54 6.03–11.06 5.16–11.92 | 8.00 | 7.81 5.51–10.11 4.71–10.91 | 7.00 | 16.35 11.54–21.17 9.88–22.83 | 15.00 | 52% 38% |
| Blocked shots | 3.51 1.92–5.09 1.39–5.63 | 3.00 | 3.21 1.79–4.62 1.31–5.11 | 1.00 | 6.72 3.72–9.72 2.70–10.74 | 4.00 | 47% 16% 38% |
| Corners | 5.84 3.63–8.04 3.04–8.64 | 10.00 | 4.66 2.68–6.64 2.15–7.18 | 4.00 | 10.50 6.32–14.68 5.18–15.82 | 14.00 | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 46.07 39.75–52.39 38.16–53.98 | 56.00 | 54.30 47.99–60.62 46.39–62.22 | 44.00 | — | — | 28% 68% |
| Passes | 366 301–431 283–449 | 437 | 450 385–515 368–532 | 313 | 816 686–946 651–981 | 750 | 23% 76% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.78 62.57–71.00 61.26–72.30 | — | 67.77 63.26–72.27 61.93–73.60 | — | — | — | 43% 52% |
| Fouls | 11.81 8.95–14.66 8.06–15.55 | 13.00 | 13.21 10.26–16.15 9.34–17.07 | 18.00 | 25.01 19.21–30.82 17.41–32.62 | 31.00 | 35% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.85 0.64–3.06 0.29–3.40 | 3.00 | 2.41 1.25–3.57 0.92–3.91 | 1.00 | 4.26 1.89–6.63 1.21–7.31 | 4.00 | 30% 19% 51% |
| Yellow cards | 1.95 0.90–3.01 0.62–3.28 | 2.00 | 1.95 0.83–3.07 0.54–3.36 | 3.00 | 3.90 1.72–6.07 1.16–6.64 | 5.00 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.86 | 0.00 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.50 1.09–3.92 0.70–4.30 | 3.00 | 3.15 1.60–4.71 1.17–5.14 | 3.00 | 5.65 2.68–8.62 1.86–9.44 | 6.00 | 31% 17% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.