Premier League·Regular Season - 29·
Premier League·Regular Season - 29·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
26%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.252.65safe0.43–2.370.39–2.100.82–4.47safer0.18–2.620.16–2.330.34–4.95
Shots on target
39%
14%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.274.598.86safe2.41–6.142.84–6.335.25–12.46safer1.92–6.622.38–6.804.30–13.42
Total shots
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8813.1926.07safe8.95–16.809.63–16.7518.58–33.56safer7.86–17.898.67–17.7116.53–35.61
Shots in box
41%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction7.958.3516.30safe5.01–10.895.67–11.0310.68–21.92safer4.18–11.724.93–11.779.11–23.49
Blocked shots
39%
15%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.373.586.94safe1.48–5.251.92–5.233.41–10.48safer0.94–5.791.43–5.722.37–11.51
Corners
42%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction5.045.1510.20safe2.83–7.263.15–7.155.98–14.41safer2.26–7.832.62–7.694.88–15.52
Possession %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction51.5449.48safe44.75–58.3342.70–56.27safer43.08–60.0041.03–57.94
Passes
56%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction424406830safe357–492340–473697–964safer339–510322–490661–1000
Pass accuracy %
25%
70%
homeawayprediction63.8268.47safe59.79–67.8564.15–72.80safer58.50–69.1462.84–74.11
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8313.6827.51safe11.00–16.6710.73–16.6221.73–33.29safer10.24–17.439.99–17.3720.22–34.80
Offsides
46%
22%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.921.593.51safe0.76–3.080.50–2.691.26–5.77safer0.46–3.380.21–2.980.67–6.36
Yellow cards
37%
21%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.872.023.88safe0.82–2.920.89–3.151.71–6.06safer0.55–3.180.60–3.441.15–6.62
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.130.22safe0.00–0.250.00–0.320.00–0.57safer0.00–0.400.00–0.450.00–0.85
GK saves
46%
17%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.132.886.01safe1.70–4.571.32–4.443.02–9.01safer1.31–4.960.90–4.862.21–9.82
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 0.43–2.37 0.18–2.62 | 1.25 0.39–2.10 0.16–2.33 | 2.65 0.82–4.47 0.34–4.95 | 41% 26% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.27 2.41–6.14 1.92–6.62 | 4.59 2.84–6.33 2.38–6.80 | 8.86 5.25–12.46 4.30–13.42 | 39% 14% 47% |
| Total shots | 12.88 8.95–16.80 7.86–17.89 | 13.19 9.63–16.75 8.67–17.71 | 26.07 18.58–33.56 16.53–35.61 | 44% 48% |
| Shots in box | 7.95 5.01–10.89 4.18–11.72 | 8.35 5.67–11.03 4.93–11.77 | 16.30 10.68–21.92 9.11–23.49 | 41% 49% |
| Blocked shots | 3.37 1.48–5.25 0.94–5.79 | 3.58 1.92–5.23 1.43–5.72 | 6.94 3.41–10.48 2.37–11.51 | 39% 15% 45% |
| Corners | 5.04 2.83–7.26 2.26–7.83 | 5.15 3.15–7.15 2.62–7.69 | 10.20 5.98–14.41 4.88–15.52 | 42% 45% |
| Possession % | 51.54 44.75–58.33 43.08–60.00 | 49.48 42.70–56.27 41.03–57.94 | — | 52% 43% |
| Passes | 424 357–492 339–510 | 406 340–473 322–490 | 830 697–964 661–1000 | 56% 44% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.82 59.79–67.85 58.50–69.14 | 68.47 64.15–72.80 62.84–74.11 | — | 25% 70% |
| Fouls | 13.83 11.00–16.67 10.24–17.43 | 13.68 10.73–16.62 9.99–17.37 | 27.51 21.73–33.29 20.22–34.80 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.92 0.76–3.08 0.46–3.38 | 1.59 0.50–2.69 0.21–2.98 | 3.51 1.26–5.77 0.67–6.36 | 46% 22% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.87 0.82–2.92 0.55–3.18 | 2.02 0.89–3.15 0.60–3.44 | 3.88 1.71–6.06 1.15–6.62 | 37% 21% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 3.13 1.70–4.57 1.31–4.96 | 2.88 1.32–4.44 0.90–4.86 | 6.01 3.02–9.01 2.21–9.82 | 46% 17% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.