Premier League·Regular Season - 9·
Premier League·Regular Season - 9·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
65%
21%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction1.870.712.58safe0.91–2.840.00–1.570.76–4.40safer0.65–3.100.00–1.810.25–4.91actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
73%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction5.353.068.41safe3.49–7.201.35–4.774.84–11.97safer2.99–7.700.89–5.243.88–12.94actual5.001.006.00
Total shots
90%
homeawaytotalprediction15.588.7524.34safe11.88–19.295.37–12.1317.26–31.42safer10.85–20.324.44–13.0615.29–33.38actual25.002.0027.00
Shots in box
86%
homeawaytotalprediction10.155.4015.55safe7.63–12.663.10–7.7010.73–20.36safer6.77–13.532.30–8.509.07–22.02actual15.001.0016.00
Blocked shots
70%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction4.212.336.53safe2.62–5.790.91–3.743.54–9.53safer2.09–6.330.43–4.232.51–10.55actual6.001.007.00
Corners
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.413.7410.14safe4.20–8.611.76–5.725.96–14.33safer3.60–9.211.22–6.254.83–15.46actual11.002.0013.00
Possession %
96%
homeawayprediction64.0335.08safe57.71–70.3528.76–41.40safer56.12–71.9427.16–42.99actual75.0025.00
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction575310885safe510–641245–374755–1015safer492–658228–392720–1050actual587194781
Pass accuracy %
98%
homeawayprediction81.3564.46safe77.13–85.5659.95–68.97safer75.83–86.8658.62–70.30
Fouls
18%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9215.1026.02safe8.06–13.7712.16–18.0520.22–31.82safer7.17–14.6611.24–18.9718.41–33.62actual7.0023.0030.00
Offsides
45%
21%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.021.733.75safe0.81–3.230.57–2.901.38–6.12safer0.46–3.570.24–3.230.70–6.80actual4.001.005.00
Yellow cards
31%
18%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.102.624.72safe1.04–3.151.50–3.742.55–6.90safer0.77–3.431.21–4.031.98–7.46actual0.002.002.00
Red cards
80%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.170.24safe0.00–0.220.00–0.370.00–0.58safer0.00–0.370.00–0.510.00–0.88actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
17%
14%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction1.803.415.21safe0.39–3.211.85–4.962.24–8.17safer0.00–3.601.42–5.391.42–9.00actual1.003.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.87 0.91–2.84 0.65–3.10 | 1.00 | 0.71 0.00–1.57 0.00–1.81 | 0.00 | 2.58 0.76–4.40 0.25–4.91 | 1.00 | 65% 21% 13% |
| Shots on target | 5.35 3.49–7.20 2.99–7.70 | 5.00 | 3.06 1.35–4.77 0.89–5.24 | 1.00 | 8.41 4.84–11.97 3.88–12.94 | 6.00 | 73% 16% |
| Total shots | 15.58 11.88–19.29 10.85–20.32 | 25.00 | 8.75 5.37–12.13 4.44–13.06 | 2.00 | 24.34 17.26–31.42 15.29–33.38 | 27.00 | 90% |
| Shots in box | 10.15 7.63–12.66 6.77–13.53 | 15.00 | 5.40 3.10–7.70 2.30–8.50 | 1.00 | 15.55 10.73–20.36 9.07–22.02 | 16.00 | 86% |
| Blocked shots | 4.21 2.62–5.79 2.09–6.33 | 6.00 | 2.33 0.91–3.74 0.43–4.23 | 1.00 | 6.53 3.54–9.53 2.51–10.55 | 7.00 | 70% 17% |
| Corners | 6.41 4.20–8.61 3.60–9.21 | 11.00 | 3.74 1.76–5.72 1.22–6.25 | 2.00 | 10.14 5.96–14.33 4.83–15.46 | 13.00 | 75% 16% |
| Possession % | 64.03 57.71–70.35 56.12–71.94 | 75.00 | 35.08 28.76–41.40 27.16–42.99 | 25.00 | — | — | 96% |
| Passes | 575 510–641 492–658 | 587 | 310 245–374 228–392 | 194 | 885 755–1015 720–1050 | 781 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.35 77.13–85.56 75.83–86.86 | — | 64.46 59.95–68.97 58.62–70.30 | — | — | — | 98% |
| Fouls | 10.92 8.06–13.77 7.17–14.66 | 7.00 | 15.10 12.16–18.05 11.24–18.97 | 23.00 | 26.02 20.22–31.82 18.41–33.62 | 30.00 | 18% 77% |
| Offsides | 2.02 0.81–3.23 0.46–3.57 | 4.00 | 1.73 0.57–2.90 0.24–3.23 | 1.00 | 3.75 1.38–6.12 0.70–6.80 | 5.00 | 45% 21% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 2.10 1.04–3.15 0.77–3.43 | 0.00 | 2.62 1.50–3.74 1.21–4.03 | 2.00 | 4.72 2.55–6.90 1.98–7.46 | 2.00 | 31% 18% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.17 0.00–0.37 0.00–0.51 | 1.00 | 0.24 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.88 | 1.00 | 80% 15% |
| GK saves | 1.80 0.39–3.21 0.00–3.60 | 1.00 | 3.41 1.85–4.96 1.42–5.39 | 3.00 | 5.21 2.24–8.17 1.42–9.00 | 4.00 | 17% 14% 68% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.