Premier League·Regular Season - 16·
Premier League·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
17%
22%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction0.891.882.77safe0.00–1.861.03–2.730.95–4.59safer0.00–2.110.80–2.960.47–5.07
Shots on target
20%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction3.205.078.27safe1.34–5.073.33–6.814.67–11.88safer0.85–5.562.86–7.283.71–12.84
Total shots
13%
82%
homeawaytotalprediction9.8114.8024.61safe5.88–13.7311.24–18.3717.12–32.10safer4.79–14.8210.28–19.3315.07–34.15
Shots in box
81%
homeawaytotalprediction5.789.7515.53safe2.84–8.727.07–12.439.91–21.16safer2.01–9.556.33–13.178.34–22.72
Blocked shots
21%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction2.704.367.06safe0.82–4.582.71–6.013.53–10.60safer0.28–5.132.21–6.502.49–11.63
Corners
19%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction3.495.559.04safe1.28–5.703.55–7.554.83–13.25safer0.70–6.283.02–8.093.72–14.36
Possession %
91%
homeawayprediction38.4461.90safe31.65–45.2355.11–68.68safer29.98–46.9053.44–70.36
Passes
94%
homeawaytotalprediction316503819safe249–384437–569686–953safer231–402419–587650–989
Pass accuracy %
98%
homeawayprediction60.5077.05safe56.47–64.5372.73–81.37safer55.18–65.8371.42–82.68
Fouls
77%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction17.3212.8330.15safe14.48–20.169.88–15.7724.36–35.93safer13.72–20.919.14–16.5222.86–37.43
Offsides
35%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.843.51safe0.50–2.820.75–2.941.25–5.76safer0.20–3.120.46–3.230.67–6.35
Yellow cards
49%
19%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.411.964.37safe1.36–3.460.83–3.092.19–6.55safer1.10–3.730.54–3.381.63–7.11
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.090.21safe0.00–0.280.00–0.280.00–0.56safer0.00–0.430.00–0.410.00–0.84
GK saves
61%
15%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction3.482.275.75safe2.04–4.910.72–3.832.76–8.74safer1.65–5.300.29–4.251.95–9.56
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.89 0.00–1.86 0.00–2.11 | 1.88 1.03–2.73 0.80–2.96 | 2.77 0.95–4.59 0.47–5.07 | 17% 22% 61% |
| Shots on target | 3.20 1.34–5.07 0.85–5.56 | 5.07 3.33–6.81 2.86–7.28 | 8.27 4.67–11.88 3.71–12.84 | 20% 68% |
| Total shots | 9.81 5.88–13.73 4.79–14.82 | 14.80 11.24–18.37 10.28–19.33 | 24.61 17.12–32.10 15.07–34.15 | 13% 82% |
| Shots in box | 5.78 2.84–8.72 2.01–9.55 | 9.75 7.07–12.43 6.33–13.17 | 15.53 9.91–21.16 8.34–22.72 | 81% |
| Blocked shots | 2.70 0.82–4.58 0.28–5.13 | 4.36 2.71–6.01 2.21–6.50 | 7.06 3.53–10.60 2.49–11.63 | 21% 67% |
| Corners | 3.49 1.28–5.70 0.70–6.28 | 5.55 3.55–7.55 3.02–8.09 | 9.04 4.83–13.25 3.72–14.36 | 19% 70% |
| Possession % | 38.44 31.65–45.23 29.98–46.90 | 61.90 55.11–68.68 53.44–70.36 | — | 91% |
| Passes | 316 249–384 231–402 | 503 437–569 419–587 | 819 686–953 650–989 | 94% |
| Pass accuracy % | 60.50 56.47–64.53 55.18–65.83 | 77.05 72.73–81.37 71.42–82.68 | — | 98% |
| Fouls | 17.32 14.48–20.16 13.72–20.91 | 12.83 9.88–15.77 9.14–16.52 | 30.15 24.36–35.93 22.86–37.43 | 77% 18% |
| Offsides | 1.66 0.50–2.82 0.20–3.12 | 1.84 0.75–2.94 0.46–3.23 | 3.51 1.25–5.76 0.67–6.35 | 35% 22% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 2.41 1.36–3.46 1.10–3.73 | 1.96 0.83–3.09 0.54–3.38 | 4.37 2.19–6.55 1.63–7.11 | 49% 19% 32% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.48 2.04–4.91 1.65–5.30 | 2.27 0.72–3.83 0.29–4.25 | 5.75 2.76–8.74 1.95–9.56 | 61% 15% 23% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+