Premier League·Regular Season - 10·
Premier League·Regular Season - 10·Predicted match statistics
Goals
58%
22%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.032.93safe0.93–2.870.17–1.881.10–4.75safer0.68–3.120.00–2.110.62–5.23
Shots on target
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.733.709.43safe3.86–7.591.96–5.455.82–13.03safer3.37–8.081.50–5.914.87–13.99
Total shots
81%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction16.5611.4027.97safe12.64–20.497.84–14.9720.48–35.45safer11.55–21.586.88–15.9318.43–37.50
Shots in box
72%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction9.786.8516.63safe6.84–12.724.17–9.5311.01–22.26safer6.01–13.553.43–10.279.44–23.82
Blocked shots
63%
14%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction3.962.596.54safe2.07–5.840.93–4.243.01–10.08safer1.53–6.380.44–4.731.97–11.11
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.824.5010.32safe3.61–8.032.50–6.506.10–14.53safer3.03–8.611.96–7.035.00–15.64
Possession %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction55.7445.52safe48.95–62.5338.73–52.30safer47.28–64.2037.06–53.98
Passes
79%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction468369837safe400–535303–435703–970safer382–553285–453667–1006
Pass accuracy %
64%
31%
homeawayprediction69.9066.63safe65.87–73.9362.30–70.95safer64.58–75.2260.99–72.26
Fouls
35%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7915.3729.16safe10.95–16.6312.43–18.3223.38–34.95safer10.19–17.3811.68–19.0721.88–36.45
Offsides
26%
18%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.902.774.67safe0.74–3.061.68–3.872.42–6.92safer0.44–3.361.39–4.151.83–7.51
Yellow cards
25%
17%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction1.952.894.84safe0.90–3.001.76–4.022.67–7.02safer0.64–3.271.47–4.312.11–7.58
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.150.23safe0.00–0.240.00–0.340.00–0.57safer0.00–0.390.00–0.470.00–0.86
GK saves
30%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.673.486.15safe1.24–4.111.92–5.043.16–9.15safer0.85–4.501.50–5.462.35–9.96
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.90 0.93–2.87 0.68–3.12 | 1.03 0.17–1.88 0.00–2.11 | 2.93 1.10–4.75 0.62–5.23 | 58% 22% 20% |
| Shots on target | 5.73 3.86–7.59 3.37–8.08 | 3.70 1.96–5.45 1.50–5.91 | 9.43 5.82–13.03 4.87–13.99 | 69% 20% |
| Total shots | 16.56 12.64–20.49 11.55–21.58 | 11.40 7.84–14.97 6.88–15.93 | 27.97 20.48–35.45 18.43–37.50 | 81% 14% |
| Shots in box | 9.78 6.84–12.72 6.01–13.55 | 6.85 4.17–9.53 3.43–10.27 | 16.63 11.01–22.26 9.44–23.82 | 72% 20% |
| Blocked shots | 3.96 2.07–5.84 1.53–6.38 | 2.59 0.93–4.24 0.44–4.73 | 6.54 3.01–10.08 1.97–11.11 | 63% 14% 23% |
| Corners | 5.82 3.61–8.03 3.03–8.61 | 4.50 2.50–6.50 1.96–7.03 | 10.32 6.10–14.53 5.00–15.64 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 55.74 48.95–62.53 47.28–64.20 | 45.52 38.73–52.30 37.06–53.98 | — | 71% 25% |
| Passes | 468 400–535 382–553 | 369 303–435 285–453 | 837 703–970 667–1006 | 79% 20% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.90 65.87–73.93 64.58–75.22 | 66.63 62.30–70.95 60.99–72.26 | — | 64% 31% |
| Fouls | 13.79 10.95–16.63 10.19–17.38 | 15.37 12.43–18.32 11.68–19.07 | 29.16 23.38–34.95 21.88–36.45 | 35% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.90 0.74–3.06 0.44–3.36 | 2.77 1.68–3.87 1.39–4.15 | 4.67 2.42–6.92 1.83–7.51 | 26% 18% 57% |
| Yellow cards | 1.95 0.90–3.00 0.64–3.27 | 2.89 1.76–4.02 1.47–4.31 | 4.84 2.67–7.02 2.11–7.58 | 25% 17% 58% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.15 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.47 | 0.23 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.86 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.67 1.24–4.11 0.85–4.50 | 3.48 1.92–5.04 1.50–5.46 | 6.15 3.16–9.15 2.35–9.96 | 30% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.