Premier League·Regular Season - 17·
Premier League·Regular Season - 17·Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
26%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.161.442.60safe0.19–2.130.58–2.290.77–4.42safer0.00–2.380.36–2.520.29–4.90
Shots on target
32%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction4.165.129.28safe2.30–6.033.38–6.865.68–12.89safer1.81–6.522.91–7.334.72–13.84
Total shots
35%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6914.2126.90safe8.77–16.6210.65–17.7719.41–34.39safer7.67–17.719.69–18.7317.36–36.44
Shots in box
34%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction7.618.7216.33safe4.66–10.556.04–11.4010.70–21.95safer3.83–11.385.30–12.149.14–23.52
Blocked shots
33%
15%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction3.003.656.64safe1.11–4.881.99–5.303.11–10.18safer0.57–5.421.50–5.792.07–11.21
Corners
44%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction5.035.0010.03safe2.82–7.243.00–7.005.82–14.24safer2.24–7.822.46–7.534.71–15.35
Possession %
38%
58%
homeawayprediction47.9052.26safe41.11–54.6945.47–59.04safer39.44–56.3643.80–60.72
Passes
43%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction408429837safe341–475363–496704–971safer323–494345–513668–1007
Pass accuracy %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction64.7370.30safe60.70–68.7665.97–74.62safer59.41–70.0664.66–75.93
Fouls
55%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction15.4914.2829.78safe12.65–18.3311.34–17.2323.99–35.56safer11.90–19.0910.59–17.9822.49–37.06
Offsides
56%
18%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.791.934.72safe1.63–3.950.83–3.022.46–6.97safer1.33–4.250.54–3.311.87–7.56
Yellow cards
46%
19%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.532.244.77safe1.48–3.581.11–3.372.59–6.95safer1.22–3.850.82–3.662.04–7.51
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.110.25safe0.00–0.290.00–0.300.00–0.60safer0.00–0.440.00–0.430.00–0.88
GK saves
44%
16%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.203.046.24safe1.77–4.641.48–4.593.25–9.23safer1.38–5.031.06–5.022.44–10.05
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.16 0.19–2.13 0.00–2.38 | 1.44 0.58–2.29 0.36–2.52 | 2.60 0.77–4.42 0.29–4.90 | 30% 26% 44% |
| Shots on target | 4.16 2.30–6.03 1.81–6.52 | 5.12 3.38–6.86 2.91–7.33 | 9.28 5.68–12.89 4.72–13.84 | 32% 56% |
| Total shots | 12.69 8.77–16.62 7.67–17.71 | 14.21 10.65–17.77 9.69–18.73 | 26.90 19.41–34.39 17.36–36.44 | 35% 58% |
| Shots in box | 7.61 4.66–10.55 3.83–11.38 | 8.72 6.04–11.40 5.30–12.14 | 16.33 10.70–21.95 9.14–23.52 | 34% 56% |
| Blocked shots | 3.00 1.11–4.88 0.57–5.42 | 3.65 1.99–5.30 1.50–5.79 | 6.64 3.11–10.18 2.07–11.21 | 33% 15% 52% |
| Corners | 5.03 2.82–7.24 2.24–7.82 | 5.00 3.00–7.00 2.46–7.53 | 10.03 5.82–14.24 4.71–15.35 | 44% 43% |
| Possession % | 47.90 41.11–54.69 39.44–56.36 | 52.26 45.47–59.04 43.80–60.72 | — | 38% 58% |
| Passes | 408 341–475 323–494 | 429 363–496 345–513 | 837 704–971 668–1007 | 43% 57% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.73 60.70–68.76 59.41–70.06 | 70.30 65.97–74.62 64.66–75.93 | — | 22% 74% |
| Fouls | 15.49 12.65–18.33 11.90–19.09 | 14.28 11.34–17.23 10.59–17.98 | 29.78 23.99–35.56 22.49–37.06 | 55% 38% |
| Offsides | 2.79 1.63–3.95 1.33–4.25 | 1.93 0.83–3.02 0.54–3.31 | 4.72 2.46–6.97 1.87–7.56 | 56% 18% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 2.53 1.48–3.58 1.22–3.85 | 2.24 1.11–3.37 0.82–3.66 | 4.77 2.59–6.95 2.04–7.51 | 46% 19% 35% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.25 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 3.20 1.77–4.64 1.38–5.03 | 3.04 1.48–4.59 1.06–5.02 | 6.24 3.25–9.23 2.44–10.05 | 44% 16% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.