Premier League·Regular Season - 10·
Premier League·Regular Season - 10·Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
25%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.402.80safe0.43–2.370.55–2.260.98–4.62safer0.18–2.620.32–2.490.50–5.10
Shots on target
46%
13%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.764.549.31safe2.90–6.632.80–6.295.70–12.91safer2.41–7.122.34–6.754.75–13.87
Total shots
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2812.2825.56safe9.36–17.218.72–15.8418.07–33.05safer8.27–18.307.76–16.8016.02–35.10
Shots in box
38%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction8.238.9517.18safe5.28–11.176.27–11.6311.55–22.80safer4.45–12.005.53–12.379.99–24.37
Blocked shots
43%
15%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.593.577.16safe1.71–5.471.92–5.223.62–10.70safer1.16–6.011.43–5.722.59–11.73
Corners
45%
13%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.794.659.43safe2.57–7.002.65–6.655.22–13.65safer2.00–7.582.11–7.184.11–14.76
Possession %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction50.1050.26safe43.31–56.8943.48–57.05safer41.64–58.5641.81–58.72
Passes
50%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction421421842safe354–488355–487708–976safer336–506337–505673–1011
Pass accuracy %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction74.9076.64safe70.87–78.9372.32–80.96safer69.58–80.2271.01–82.27
Fouls
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction15.5714.3229.90safe12.74–18.4111.38–17.2724.11–35.68safer11.98–19.1710.63–18.0122.61–37.18
Offsides
34%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.983.67safe0.53–2.850.89–3.071.42–5.93safer0.23–3.160.60–3.360.83–6.52
Yellow cards
44%
18%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.722.585.30safe1.67–3.771.45–3.713.12–7.48safer1.41–4.041.16–4.002.57–8.04
Red cards
14%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction0.170.110.29safe0.01–0.330.00–0.300.00–0.63safer0.00–0.480.00–0.430.00–0.92
GK saves
42%
16%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.143.126.25safe1.70–4.571.56–4.673.26–9.25safer1.31–4.961.14–5.102.45–10.06
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 0.43–2.37 0.18–2.62 | 1.40 0.55–2.26 0.32–2.49 | 2.80 0.98–4.62 0.50–5.10 | 37% 25% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.76 2.90–6.63 2.41–7.12 | 4.54 2.80–6.29 2.34–6.75 | 9.31 5.70–12.91 4.75–13.87 | 46% 13% 41% |
| Total shots | 13.28 9.36–17.21 8.27–18.30 | 12.28 8.72–15.84 7.76–16.80 | 25.56 18.07–33.05 16.02–35.10 | 54% 38% |
| Shots in box | 8.23 5.28–11.17 4.45–12.00 | 8.95 6.27–11.63 5.53–12.37 | 17.18 11.55–22.80 9.99–24.37 | 38% 52% |
| Blocked shots | 3.59 1.71–5.47 1.16–6.01 | 3.57 1.92–5.22 1.43–5.72 | 7.16 3.62–10.70 2.59–11.73 | 43% 15% 42% |
| Corners | 4.79 2.57–7.00 2.00–7.58 | 4.65 2.65–6.65 2.11–7.18 | 9.43 5.22–13.65 4.11–14.76 | 45% 13% 42% |
| Possession % | 50.10 43.31–56.89 41.64–58.56 | 50.26 43.48–57.05 41.81–58.72 | — | 47% 48% |
| Passes | 421 354–488 336–506 | 421 355–487 337–505 | 842 708–976 673–1011 | 50% 50% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.90 70.87–78.93 69.58–80.22 | 76.64 72.32–80.96 71.01–82.27 | — | 39% 56% |
| Fouls | 15.57 12.74–18.41 11.98–19.17 | 14.32 11.38–17.27 10.63–18.01 | 29.90 24.11–35.68 22.61–37.18 | 55% 37% |
| Offsides | 1.69 0.53–2.85 0.23–3.16 | 1.98 0.89–3.07 0.60–3.36 | 3.67 1.42–5.93 0.83–6.52 | 34% 21% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 2.72 1.67–3.77 1.41–4.04 | 2.58 1.45–3.71 1.16–4.00 | 5.30 3.12–7.48 2.57–8.04 | 44% 18% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.17 0.01–0.33 0.00–0.48 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.29 0.00–0.63 0.00–0.92 | 14% 76% |
| GK saves | 3.14 1.70–4.57 1.31–4.96 | 3.12 1.56–4.67 1.14–5.10 | 6.25 3.26–9.25 2.45–10.06 | 42% 16% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.