Premier League·Regular Season - 26·
Premier League·Regular Season - 26·Predicted match statistics
Goals
56%
22%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction1.871.052.92safe0.90–2.840.20–1.911.10–4.75safer0.65–3.090.00–2.140.62–5.22
Shots on target
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.323.689.00safe3.45–7.181.94–5.425.39–12.60safer2.96–7.671.47–5.894.44–13.56
Total shots
80%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction14.9610.3225.29safe11.04–18.896.76–13.8817.80–32.77safer9.95–19.985.80–14.8415.75–34.82
Shots in box
80%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction10.216.3516.56safe7.27–13.153.67–9.0310.93–22.18safer6.44–13.982.93–9.779.37–23.75
Blocked shots
60%
14%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.363.167.52safe2.48–6.241.51–4.813.98–11.05safer1.93–6.781.01–5.302.95–12.09
Corners
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.933.769.69safe3.72–8.141.76–5.765.48–13.91safer3.14–8.721.23–6.304.37–15.01
Possession %
59%
37%
homeawayprediction52.1547.40safe45.36–58.9440.61–54.18safer43.69–60.6138.94–55.85
Passes
59%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction432403835safe365–499336–469701–969safer347–517319–487666–1004
Pass accuracy %
48%
47%
homeawayprediction76.3576.23safe72.32–80.3871.90–80.55safer71.03–81.6770.59–81.86
Fouls
29%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5516.1429.69safe10.72–16.3913.19–19.0823.91–35.47safer9.96–17.1512.44–19.8322.40–36.98
Offsides
46%
21%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.051.733.78safe0.89–3.210.64–2.821.53–6.03safer0.59–3.510.35–3.110.94–6.62
Yellow cards
25%
17%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.012.964.97safe0.96–3.051.83–4.092.79–7.15safer0.69–3.321.54–4.382.23–7.70
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.140.26safe0.00–0.280.00–0.330.00–0.61safer0.00–0.430.00–0.460.00–0.89
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.423.225.64safe0.99–3.861.66–4.772.65–8.63safer0.60–4.251.24–5.201.83–9.44
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.87 0.90–2.84 0.65–3.09 | 1.05 0.20–1.91 0.00–2.14 | 2.92 1.10–4.75 0.62–5.22 | 56% 22% 21% |
| Shots on target | 5.32 3.45–7.18 2.96–7.67 | 3.68 1.94–5.42 1.47–5.89 | 9.00 5.39–12.60 4.44–13.56 | 65% 24% |
| Total shots | 14.96 11.04–18.89 9.95–19.98 | 10.32 6.76–13.88 5.80–14.84 | 25.29 17.80–32.77 15.75–34.82 | 80% 15% |
| Shots in box | 10.21 7.27–13.15 6.44–13.98 | 6.35 3.67–9.03 2.93–9.77 | 16.56 10.93–22.18 9.37–23.75 | 80% 14% |
| Blocked shots | 4.36 2.48–6.24 1.93–6.78 | 3.16 1.51–4.81 1.01–5.30 | 7.52 3.98–11.05 2.95–12.09 | 60% 14% 27% |
| Corners | 5.93 3.72–8.14 3.14–8.72 | 3.76 1.76–5.76 1.23–6.30 | 9.69 5.48–13.91 4.37–15.01 | 70% 19% |
| Possession % | 52.15 45.36–58.94 43.69–60.61 | 47.40 40.61–54.18 38.94–55.85 | — | 59% 37% |
| Passes | 432 365–499 347–517 | 403 336–469 319–487 | 835 701–969 666–1004 | 59% 40% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.35 72.32–80.38 71.03–81.67 | 76.23 71.90–80.55 70.59–81.86 | — | 48% 47% |
| Fouls | 13.55 10.72–16.39 9.96–17.15 | 16.14 13.19–19.08 12.44–19.83 | 29.69 23.91–35.47 22.40–36.98 | 29% 65% |
| Offsides | 2.05 0.89–3.21 0.59–3.51 | 1.73 0.64–2.82 0.35–3.11 | 3.78 1.53–6.03 0.94–6.62 | 46% 21% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 2.01 0.96–3.05 0.69–3.32 | 2.96 1.83–4.09 1.54–4.38 | 4.97 2.79–7.15 2.23–7.70 | 25% 17% 58% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.26 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.89 | 78% |
| GK saves | 2.42 0.99–3.86 0.60–4.25 | 3.22 1.66–4.77 1.24–5.20 | 5.64 2.65–8.63 1.83–9.44 | 29% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.