Premier League·Regular Season - 11·
Premier League·Regular Season - 11·Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
27%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.082.44safe0.39–2.320.23–1.940.61–4.26safer0.14–2.570.00–2.160.13–4.74
Shots on target
62%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction4.733.348.07safe2.87–6.601.60–5.084.47–11.68safer2.38–7.091.13–5.553.51–12.63
Total shots
75%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3210.4824.81safe10.40–18.256.92–14.0517.32–32.29safer9.31–19.345.96–15.0015.27–34.34
Shots in box
73%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction8.996.0915.08safe6.05–11.933.41–8.779.45–20.70safer5.22–12.762.67–9.517.89–22.27
Blocked shots
61%
15%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction3.732.506.23safe1.85–5.610.84–4.152.69–9.76safer1.30–6.160.35–4.641.66–10.80
Corners
71%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction6.073.839.90safe3.86–8.291.83–5.835.69–14.11safer3.29–8.861.29–6.364.58–15.22
Possession %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction49.0050.41safe42.21–55.7943.62–57.19safer40.54–57.4641.95–58.86
Passes
46%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction381393774safe314–448327–460641–908safer296–466309–477605–944
Pass accuracy %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction61.7467.24safe57.71–65.7762.91–71.56safer56.42–67.0661.60–72.87
Fouls
36%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5715.0228.60safe10.74–16.4112.08–17.9722.82–34.38safer9.98–17.1711.33–18.7221.31–35.88
Offsides
42%
21%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.031.893.92safe0.87–3.190.80–2.981.66–6.17safer0.57–3.490.51–3.271.08–6.76
Yellow cards
35%
18%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.432.775.20safe1.38–3.481.64–3.893.02–7.38safer1.12–3.751.35–4.192.46–7.93
Red cards
76%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.180.30safe0.00–0.280.00–0.370.00–0.65safer0.00–0.430.00–0.500.00–0.93
GK saves
29%
17%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.273.035.30safe0.84–3.711.47–4.592.31–8.30safer0.45–4.101.05–5.011.50–9.11
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 0.39–2.32 0.14–2.57 | 1.08 0.23–1.94 0.00–2.16 | 2.44 0.61–4.26 0.13–4.74 | 43% 27% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.73 2.87–6.60 2.38–7.09 | 3.34 1.60–5.08 1.13–5.55 | 8.07 4.47–11.68 3.51–12.63 | 62% 25% |
| Total shots | 14.32 10.40–18.25 9.31–19.34 | 10.48 6.92–14.05 5.96–15.00 | 24.81 17.32–32.29 15.27–34.34 | 75% 19% |
| Shots in box | 8.99 6.05–11.93 5.22–12.76 | 6.09 3.41–8.77 2.67–9.51 | 15.08 9.45–20.70 7.89–22.27 | 73% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 3.73 1.85–5.61 1.30–6.16 | 2.50 0.84–4.15 0.35–4.64 | 6.23 2.69–9.76 1.66–10.80 | 61% 15% 24% |
| Corners | 6.07 3.86–8.29 3.29–8.86 | 3.83 1.83–5.83 1.29–6.36 | 9.90 5.69–14.11 4.58–15.22 | 71% 19% |
| Possession % | 49.00 42.21–55.79 40.54–57.46 | 50.41 43.62–57.19 41.95–58.86 | — | 44% 51% |
| Passes | 381 314–448 296–466 | 393 327–460 309–477 | 774 641–908 605–944 | 46% 54% |
| Pass accuracy % | 61.74 57.71–65.77 56.42–67.06 | 67.24 62.91–71.56 61.60–72.87 | — | 22% 74% |
| Fouls | 13.57 10.74–16.41 9.98–17.17 | 15.02 12.08–17.97 11.33–18.72 | 28.60 22.82–34.38 21.31–35.88 | 36% 57% |
| Offsides | 2.03 0.87–3.19 0.57–3.49 | 1.89 0.80–2.98 0.51–3.27 | 3.92 1.66–6.17 1.08–6.76 | 42% 21% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 2.43 1.38–3.48 1.12–3.75 | 2.77 1.64–3.89 1.35–4.19 | 5.20 3.02–7.38 2.46–7.93 | 35% 18% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.18 0.00–0.37 0.00–0.50 | 0.30 0.00–0.65 0.00–0.93 | 76% 15% |
| GK saves | 2.27 0.84–3.71 0.45–4.10 | 3.03 1.47–4.59 1.05–5.01 | 5.30 2.31–8.30 1.50–9.11 | 29% 17% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.