Premier League·Regular Season - 20·
Premier League·Regular Season - 20·Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
27%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.271.232.50safe0.30–2.240.37–2.080.68–4.32safer0.05–2.490.14–2.310.20–4.80
Shots on target
44%
15%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.913.847.76safe2.05–5.782.10–5.594.15–11.36safer1.56–6.271.64–6.053.20–12.32
Total shots
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4611.7324.19safe8.54–16.388.17–15.3016.71–31.68safer7.44–17.487.21–16.2614.66–33.73
Shots in box
45%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction7.317.3014.61safe4.37–10.254.61–9.988.98–20.23safer3.54–11.083.88–10.717.42–21.80
Blocked shots
48%
16%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.352.956.30safe1.46–5.231.30–4.602.76–9.83safer0.92–5.770.81–5.101.73–10.87
Corners
51%
13%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.964.409.36safe2.74–7.172.40–6.405.15–13.57safer2.17–7.741.87–6.944.04–14.68
Possession %
62%
34%
homeawayprediction52.8246.63safe46.03–59.6139.85–53.42safer44.36–61.2838.18–55.09
Passes
74%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction433354786safe365–500287–420653–920safer347–518270–438617–956
Pass accuracy %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction64.1365.81safe60.10–68.1661.49–70.14safer58.81–69.4660.18–71.45
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2414.2328.47safe11.40–17.0811.29–17.1822.69–34.26safer10.65–17.8310.54–17.9321.19–35.76
Offsides
36%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.862.033.90safe0.70–3.020.94–3.131.64–6.15safer0.40–3.330.65–3.421.06–6.74
Yellow cards
34%
18%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.392.785.17safe1.34–3.441.66–3.912.99–7.35safer1.07–3.701.36–4.202.44–7.91
Red cards
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.150.130.28safe0.00–0.310.00–0.320.00–0.63safer0.00–0.460.00–0.450.00–0.91
GK saves
41%
18%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.632.645.27safe1.19–4.061.08–4.202.28–8.26safer0.80–4.450.66–4.621.46–9.07
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 0.30–2.24 0.05–2.49 | 1.23 0.37–2.08 0.14–2.31 | 2.50 0.68–4.32 0.20–4.80 | 38% 27% 35% |
| Shots on target | 3.91 2.05–5.78 1.56–6.27 | 3.84 2.10–5.59 1.64–6.05 | 7.76 4.15–11.36 3.20–12.32 | 44% 15% 42% |
| Total shots | 12.46 8.54–16.38 7.44–17.48 | 11.73 8.17–15.30 7.21–16.26 | 24.19 16.71–31.68 14.66–33.73 | 52% 40% |
| Shots in box | 7.31 4.37–10.25 3.54–11.08 | 7.30 4.61–9.98 3.88–10.71 | 14.61 8.98–20.23 7.42–21.80 | 45% 45% |
| Blocked shots | 3.35 1.46–5.23 0.92–5.77 | 2.95 1.30–4.60 0.81–5.10 | 6.30 2.76–9.83 1.73–10.87 | 48% 16% 36% |
| Corners | 4.96 2.74–7.17 2.17–7.74 | 4.40 2.40–6.40 1.87–6.94 | 9.36 5.15–13.57 4.04–14.68 | 51% 13% 36% |
| Possession % | 52.82 46.03–59.61 44.36–61.28 | 46.63 39.85–53.42 38.18–55.09 | — | 62% 34% |
| Passes | 433 365–500 347–518 | 354 287–420 270–438 | 786 653–920 617–956 | 74% 25% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.13 60.10–68.16 58.81–69.46 | 65.81 61.49–70.14 60.18–71.45 | — | 39% 56% |
| Fouls | 14.24 11.40–17.08 10.65–17.83 | 14.23 11.29–17.18 10.54–17.93 | 28.47 22.69–34.26 21.19–35.76 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.86 0.70–3.02 0.40–3.33 | 2.03 0.94–3.13 0.65–3.42 | 3.90 1.64–6.15 1.06–6.74 | 36% 21% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 2.39 1.34–3.44 1.07–3.70 | 2.78 1.66–3.91 1.36–4.20 | 5.17 2.99–7.35 2.44–7.91 | 34% 18% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.15 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.28 0.00–0.63 0.00–0.91 | 77% |
| GK saves | 2.63 1.19–4.06 0.80–4.45 | 2.64 1.08–4.20 0.66–4.62 | 5.27 2.28–8.26 1.46–9.07 | 41% 18% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.