Premier League·Regular Season - 11·
Premier League·Regular Season - 11·Predicted match statistics
Goals
52%
23%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.851.223.07safe0.88–2.820.36–2.071.25–4.89safer0.63–3.070.13–2.300.77–5.37
Shots on target
69%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.713.729.43safe3.85–7.571.98–5.465.83–13.04safer3.36–8.061.51–5.934.87–13.99
Total shots
90%
homeawaytotalprediction16.209.2525.46safe12.28–20.135.69–12.8217.97–32.94safer11.19–21.224.73–13.7815.92–35.00
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction10.486.1316.61safe7.54–13.433.44–8.8110.99–22.23safer6.71–14.252.71–9.549.42–23.80
Blocked shots
73%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction4.072.056.12safe2.19–5.950.40–3.712.59–9.66safer1.64–6.500.00–4.201.55–10.69
Corners
73%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction5.993.609.59safe3.78–8.211.60–5.605.38–13.80safer3.21–8.781.06–6.134.27–14.91
Possession %
82%
15%
homeawayprediction58.2342.04safe51.44–65.0235.25–48.82safer49.77–66.6933.58–50.49
Passes
90%
homeawaytotalprediction518365883safe451–586298–431749–1017safer433–604281–449714–1052
Pass accuracy %
77%
20%
homeawayprediction73.3767.23safe69.34–77.4062.91–71.56safer68.05–78.7061.60–72.86
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8913.9726.86safe10.06–15.7311.03–16.9221.08–32.65safer9.30–16.4910.28–17.6619.58–34.15
Offsides
32%
17%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.493.095.58safe1.33–3.652.00–4.183.33–7.83safer1.03–3.951.71–4.472.74–8.42
Yellow cards
29%
19%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.862.504.36safe0.81–2.911.37–3.632.19–6.54safer0.54–3.181.08–3.921.63–7.10
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.150.22safe0.00–0.240.00–0.330.00–0.57safer0.00–0.390.00–0.470.00–0.85
GK saves
21%
14%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction2.393.916.30safe0.95–3.822.35–5.473.30–9.29safer0.56–4.211.93–5.892.49–10.10
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.85 0.88–2.82 0.63–3.07 | 1.22 0.36–2.07 0.13–2.30 | 3.07 1.25–4.89 0.77–5.37 | 52% 23% 25% |
| Shots on target | 5.71 3.85–7.57 3.36–8.06 | 3.72 1.98–5.46 1.51–5.93 | 9.43 5.83–13.04 4.87–13.99 | 69% 21% |
| Total shots | 16.20 12.28–20.13 11.19–21.22 | 9.25 5.69–12.82 4.73–13.78 | 25.46 17.97–32.94 15.92–35.00 | 90% |
| Shots in box | 10.48 7.54–13.43 6.71–14.25 | 6.13 3.44–8.81 2.71–9.54 | 16.61 10.99–22.23 9.42–23.80 | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 4.07 2.19–5.95 1.64–6.50 | 2.05 0.40–3.71 0.00–4.20 | 6.12 2.59–9.66 1.55–10.69 | 73% 15% |
| Corners | 5.99 3.78–8.21 3.21–8.78 | 3.60 1.60–5.60 1.06–6.13 | 9.59 5.38–13.80 4.27–14.91 | 73% 17% |
| Possession % | 58.23 51.44–65.02 49.77–66.69 | 42.04 35.25–48.82 33.58–50.49 | — | 82% 15% |
| Passes | 518 451–586 433–604 | 365 298–431 281–449 | 883 749–1017 714–1052 | 90% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.37 69.34–77.40 68.05–78.70 | 67.23 62.91–71.56 61.60–72.86 | — | 77% 20% |
| Fouls | 12.89 10.06–15.73 9.30–16.49 | 13.97 11.03–16.92 10.28–17.66 | 26.86 21.08–32.65 19.58–34.15 | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 2.49 1.33–3.65 1.03–3.95 | 3.09 2.00–4.18 1.71–4.47 | 5.58 3.33–7.83 2.74–8.42 | 32% 17% 51% |
| Yellow cards | 1.86 0.81–2.91 0.54–3.18 | 2.50 1.37–3.63 1.08–3.92 | 4.36 2.19–6.54 1.63–7.10 | 29% 19% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.15 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.47 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.39 0.95–3.82 0.56–4.21 | 3.91 2.35–5.47 1.93–5.89 | 6.30 3.30–9.29 2.49–10.10 | 21% 14% 66% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+