Premier League·Regular Season - 25·
Premier League·Regular Season - 25·Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
24%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.613.05safe0.47–2.410.75–2.461.23–4.87safer0.22–2.660.52–2.690.75–5.35
Shots on target
34%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.255.019.26safe2.39–6.113.27–6.765.66–12.87safer1.90–6.602.81–7.224.70–13.82
Total shots
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4513.3325.78safe8.53–16.389.77–16.8918.30–33.27safer7.44–17.478.81–17.8516.24–35.32
Shots in box
36%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction7.908.9116.80safe4.96–10.846.22–11.5911.18–22.43safer4.13–11.675.49–12.329.61–23.99
Blocked shots
31%
15%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.123.887.00safe1.24–5.002.23–5.543.47–10.54safer0.70–5.551.74–6.032.43–11.57
Corners
36%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.475.119.58safe2.26–6.693.11–7.115.37–13.79safer1.69–7.262.57–7.644.26–14.90
Possession %
23%
74%
homeawayprediction44.7556.41safe37.96–51.5449.63–63.20safer36.29–53.2147.96–64.87
Passes
21%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction402497899safe335–470431–563766–1033safer317–488413–581730–1069
Pass accuracy %
89%
homeawayprediction64.7174.73safe60.68–68.7470.41–79.06safer59.38–70.0369.10–80.37
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5913.6227.21safe10.75–16.4310.67–16.5621.43–32.99safer10.00–17.189.93–17.3119.92–34.50
Offsides
45%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.892.655.54safe1.73–4.051.56–3.743.29–7.80safer1.43–4.351.27–4.032.70–8.39
Yellow cards
40%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.022.034.05safe0.97–3.070.90–3.161.87–6.23safer0.70–3.340.61–3.451.31–6.79
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.120.26safe0.00–0.300.00–0.300.00–0.60safer0.00–0.450.00–0.430.00–0.89
GK saves
48%
16%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.262.856.11safe1.83–4.701.30–4.413.12–9.11safer1.44–5.090.87–4.832.31–9.92
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.44 0.47–2.41 0.22–2.66 | 1.61 0.75–2.46 0.52–2.69 | 3.05 1.23–4.87 0.75–5.35 | 34% 24% 42% |
| Shots on target | 4.25 2.39–6.11 1.90–6.60 | 5.01 3.27–6.76 2.81–7.22 | 9.26 5.66–12.87 4.70–13.82 | 34% 53% |
| Total shots | 12.45 8.53–16.38 7.44–17.47 | 13.33 9.77–16.89 8.81–17.85 | 25.78 18.30–33.27 16.24–35.32 | 39% 53% |
| Shots in box | 7.90 4.96–10.84 4.13–11.67 | 8.91 6.22–11.59 5.49–12.32 | 16.80 11.18–22.43 9.61–23.99 | 36% 55% |
| Blocked shots | 3.12 1.24–5.00 0.70–5.55 | 3.88 2.23–5.54 1.74–6.03 | 7.00 3.47–10.54 2.43–11.57 | 31% 15% 54% |
| Corners | 4.47 2.26–6.69 1.69–7.26 | 5.11 3.11–7.11 2.57–7.64 | 9.58 5.37–13.79 4.26–14.90 | 36% 52% |
| Possession % | 44.75 37.96–51.54 36.29–53.21 | 56.41 49.63–63.20 47.96–64.87 | — | 23% 74% |
| Passes | 402 335–470 317–488 | 497 431–563 413–581 | 899 766–1033 730–1069 | 21% 78% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.71 60.68–68.74 59.38–70.03 | 74.73 70.41–79.06 69.10–80.37 | — | 89% |
| Fouls | 13.59 10.75–16.43 10.00–17.18 | 13.62 10.67–16.56 9.93–17.31 | 27.21 21.43–32.99 19.92–34.50 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 2.89 1.73–4.05 1.43–4.35 | 2.65 1.56–3.74 1.27–4.03 | 5.54 3.29–7.80 2.70–8.39 | 45% 17% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 2.02 0.97–3.07 0.70–3.34 | 2.03 0.90–3.16 0.61–3.45 | 4.05 1.87–6.23 1.31–6.79 | 40% 21% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.26 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.89 | 79% |
| GK saves | 3.26 1.83–4.70 1.44–5.09 | 2.85 1.30–4.41 0.87–4.83 | 6.11 3.12–9.11 2.31–9.92 | 48% 16% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.