Premier League·Regular Season - 11·
Premier League·Regular Season - 11·Predicted match statistics
Goals
52%
26%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.480.852.33safe0.51–2.450.00–1.710.51–4.16safer0.26–2.700.00–1.940.03–4.63
Shots on target
65%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.113.478.57safe3.24–6.971.72–5.214.97–12.18safer2.75–7.461.26–5.674.01–13.13
Total shots
82%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction15.4210.3425.75safe11.49–19.346.77–13.9018.27–33.24safer10.40–20.435.81–14.8616.21–35.29
Shots in box
76%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction9.766.4316.19safe6.81–12.703.75–9.1110.56–21.81safer5.99–13.533.01–9.859.00–23.38
Blocked shots
68%
13%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction3.992.296.28safe2.11–5.870.64–3.952.75–9.82safer1.56–6.410.15–4.441.71–10.85
Corners
64%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction6.084.3910.46safe3.87–8.292.39–6.396.25–14.68safer3.29–8.871.85–6.925.14–15.79
Possession %
70%
26%
homeawayprediction54.5744.87safe47.78–61.3638.08–51.65safer46.11–63.0336.41–53.33
Passes
78%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction459366825safe392–526299–432691–958safer374–544282–450655–994
Pass accuracy %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction68.1667.12safe64.13–72.1962.79–71.44safer62.84–73.4861.48–72.75
Fouls
29%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6816.2329.91safe10.84–16.5113.29–19.1824.13–35.69safer10.08–17.2712.54–19.9322.62–37.20
Offsides
42%
21%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.951.803.74safe0.79–3.110.70–2.891.49–6.00safer0.49–3.410.41–3.180.90–6.59
Yellow cards
29%
18%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.002.654.65safe0.95–3.051.52–3.782.47–6.83safer0.68–3.321.23–4.071.92–7.39
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.130.23safe0.00–0.270.00–0.310.00–0.58safer0.00–0.420.00–0.450.00–0.86
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.483.315.79safe1.05–3.921.75–4.862.80–8.78safer0.66–4.311.32–5.291.99–9.59
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 0.51–2.45 0.26–2.70 | 0.85 0.00–1.71 0.00–1.94 | 2.33 0.51–4.16 0.03–4.63 | 52% 26% 22% |
| Shots on target | 5.11 3.24–6.97 2.75–7.46 | 3.47 1.72–5.21 1.26–5.67 | 8.57 4.97–12.18 4.01–13.13 | 65% 23% |
| Total shots | 15.42 11.49–19.34 10.40–20.43 | 10.34 6.77–13.90 5.81–14.86 | 25.75 18.27–33.24 16.21–35.29 | 82% 13% |
| Shots in box | 9.76 6.81–12.70 5.99–13.53 | 6.43 3.75–9.11 3.01–9.85 | 16.19 10.56–21.81 9.00–23.38 | 76% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 3.99 2.11–5.87 1.56–6.41 | 2.29 0.64–3.95 0.15–4.44 | 6.28 2.75–9.82 1.71–10.85 | 68% 13% 19% |
| Corners | 6.08 3.87–8.29 3.29–8.87 | 4.39 2.39–6.39 1.85–6.92 | 10.46 6.25–14.68 5.14–15.79 | 64% 25% |
| Possession % | 54.57 47.78–61.36 46.11–63.03 | 44.87 38.08–51.65 36.41–53.33 | — | 70% 26% |
| Passes | 459 392–526 374–544 | 366 299–432 282–450 | 825 691–958 655–994 | 78% 22% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.16 64.13–72.19 62.84–73.48 | 67.12 62.79–71.44 61.48–72.75 | — | 53% 42% |
| Fouls | 13.68 10.84–16.51 10.08–17.27 | 16.23 13.29–19.18 12.54–19.93 | 29.91 24.13–35.69 22.62–37.20 | 29% 65% |
| Offsides | 1.95 0.79–3.11 0.49–3.41 | 1.80 0.70–2.89 0.41–3.18 | 3.74 1.49–6.00 0.90–6.59 | 42% 21% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 2.00 0.95–3.05 0.68–3.32 | 2.65 1.52–3.78 1.23–4.07 | 4.65 2.47–6.83 1.92–7.39 | 29% 18% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.13 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.48 1.05–3.92 0.66–4.31 | 3.31 1.75–4.86 1.32–5.29 | 5.79 2.80–8.78 1.99–9.59 | 29% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.