Premier League·Regular Season - 28·
Premier League·Regular Season - 28·Predicted match statistics
Goals
27%
24%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.151.642.79safe0.18–2.110.79–2.490.96–4.61safer0.00–2.360.56–2.720.48–5.09
Shots on target
39%
14%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.134.448.57safe2.27–6.002.70–6.184.97–12.18safer1.78–6.492.23–6.654.01–13.13
Total shots
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6413.6826.32safe8.72–16.5610.11–17.2418.83–33.80safer7.62–17.669.15–18.2016.78–35.86
Shots in box
33%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction7.598.8816.46safe4.65–10.536.20–11.5610.84–22.09safer3.82–11.365.46–12.309.27–23.65
Blocked shots
32%
15%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction3.254.007.24safe1.36–5.132.34–5.653.71–10.78safer0.82–5.671.85–6.142.67–11.81
Corners
39%
14%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.274.618.88safe2.05–6.482.61–6.614.67–13.09safer1.48–7.052.08–7.153.56–14.20
Possession %
34%
62%
homeawayprediction47.1353.23safe40.34–53.9246.44–60.01safer38.67–55.5944.77–61.69
Passes
34%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction383431814safe316–450365–497680–948safer298–468347–515645–983
Pass accuracy %
17%
79%
homeawayprediction64.3371.15safe60.30–68.3666.82–75.47safer59.01–69.6565.51–76.78
Fouls
56%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction15.6314.2529.88safe12.79–18.4711.31–17.2024.10–35.66safer12.04–19.2210.56–17.9522.60–37.17
Offsides
42%
22%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.623.42safe0.64–2.960.53–2.721.17–5.68safer0.34–3.260.24–3.010.58–6.27
Yellow cards
42%
19%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.322.214.53safe1.27–3.371.08–3.342.35–6.71safer1.01–3.640.79–3.631.80–7.27
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.110.22safe0.00–0.280.00–0.290.00–0.57safer0.00–0.430.00–0.430.00–0.85
GK saves
44%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.952.805.75safe1.51–4.391.25–4.362.76–8.75safer1.13–4.770.82–4.781.95–9.56
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.15 0.18–2.11 0.00–2.36 | 1.64 0.79–2.49 0.56–2.72 | 2.79 0.96–4.61 0.48–5.09 | 27% 24% 49% |
| Shots on target | 4.13 2.27–6.00 1.78–6.49 | 4.44 2.70–6.18 2.23–6.65 | 8.57 4.97–12.18 4.01–13.13 | 39% 14% 47% |
| Total shots | 12.64 8.72–16.56 7.62–17.66 | 13.68 10.11–17.24 9.15–18.20 | 26.32 18.83–33.80 16.78–35.86 | 38% 54% |
| Shots in box | 7.59 4.65–10.53 3.82–11.36 | 8.88 6.20–11.56 5.46–12.30 | 16.46 10.84–22.09 9.27–23.65 | 33% 58% |
| Blocked shots | 3.25 1.36–5.13 0.82–5.67 | 4.00 2.34–5.65 1.85–6.14 | 7.24 3.71–10.78 2.67–11.81 | 32% 15% 53% |
| Corners | 4.27 2.05–6.48 1.48–7.05 | 4.61 2.61–6.61 2.08–7.15 | 8.88 4.67–13.09 3.56–14.20 | 39% 14% 48% |
| Possession % | 47.13 40.34–53.92 38.67–55.59 | 53.23 46.44–60.01 44.77–61.69 | — | 34% 62% |
| Passes | 383 316–450 298–468 | 431 365–497 347–515 | 814 680–948 645–983 | 34% 65% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.33 60.30–68.36 59.01–69.65 | 71.15 66.82–75.47 65.51–76.78 | — | 17% 79% |
| Fouls | 15.63 12.79–18.47 12.04–19.22 | 14.25 11.31–17.20 10.56–17.95 | 29.88 24.10–35.66 22.60–37.17 | 56% 37% |
| Offsides | 1.80 0.64–2.96 0.34–3.26 | 1.62 0.53–2.72 0.24–3.01 | 3.42 1.17–5.68 0.58–6.27 | 42% 22% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 2.32 1.27–3.37 1.01–3.64 | 2.21 1.08–3.34 0.79–3.63 | 4.53 2.35–6.71 1.80–7.27 | 42% 19% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.95 1.51–4.39 1.13–4.77 | 2.80 1.25–4.36 0.82–4.78 | 5.75 2.76–8.75 1.95–9.56 | 44% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.