Premier League·Regular Season - 11·
Premier League·Regular Season - 11·Predicted match statistics
Goals
21%
24%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction0.931.692.63safe0.00–1.900.84–2.550.80–4.45safer0.00–2.150.61–2.780.33–4.93
Shots on target
24%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction3.745.389.12safe1.87–5.603.64–7.125.51–12.72safer1.38–6.093.17–7.594.56–13.68
Total shots
25%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3515.3327.68safe8.43–16.2811.76–18.8920.19–35.17safer7.34–17.3710.80–19.8518.14–37.22
Shots in box
18%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction6.8310.0516.88safe3.88–9.777.37–12.7411.26–22.50safer3.05–10.606.64–13.479.69–24.07
Blocked shots
27%
15%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.813.836.64safe0.92–4.692.18–5.483.10–10.17safer0.38–5.231.69–5.982.06–11.21
Corners
30%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction4.035.159.18safe1.82–6.243.15–7.154.96–13.39safer1.24–6.822.61–7.683.86–14.50
Possession %
15%
83%
homeawayprediction41.5358.37safe34.74–48.3251.59–65.16safer33.07–49.9949.92–66.83
Passes
13%
86%
homeawaytotalprediction351483834safe284–418417–549700–968safer265–436399–567665–1003
Pass accuracy %
94%
homeawayprediction64.7977.22safe60.76–68.8272.90–81.54safer59.47–70.1271.59–82.85
Fouls
61%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction16.1314.0930.22safe13.29–18.9711.14–17.0324.44–36.00safer12.54–19.7210.40–17.7822.93–37.51
Offsides
43%
20%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.222.054.26safe1.06–3.380.95–3.142.01–6.52safer0.75–3.680.66–3.431.42–7.11
Yellow cards
52%
17%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.112.475.58safe2.06–4.161.34–3.603.40–7.76safer1.80–4.431.05–3.892.85–8.32
Red cards
19%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction0.240.140.38safe0.08–0.400.00–0.320.03–0.72safer0.00–0.550.00–0.460.00–1.01
GK saves
56%
15%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.542.676.21safe2.10–4.981.11–4.233.22–9.20safer1.72–5.360.69–4.652.41–10.02
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.93 0.00–1.90 0.00–2.15 | 1.69 0.84–2.55 0.61–2.78 | 2.63 0.80–4.45 0.33–4.93 | 21% 24% 55% |
| Shots on target | 3.74 1.87–5.60 1.38–6.09 | 5.38 3.64–7.12 3.17–7.59 | 9.12 5.51–12.72 4.56–13.68 | 24% 65% |
| Total shots | 12.35 8.43–16.28 7.34–17.37 | 15.33 11.76–18.89 10.80–19.85 | 27.68 20.19–35.17 18.14–37.22 | 25% 68% |
| Shots in box | 6.83 3.88–9.77 3.05–10.60 | 10.05 7.37–12.74 6.64–13.47 | 16.88 11.26–22.50 9.69–24.07 | 18% 75% |
| Blocked shots | 2.81 0.92–4.69 0.38–5.23 | 3.83 2.18–5.48 1.69–5.98 | 6.64 3.10–10.17 2.06–11.21 | 27% 15% 58% |
| Corners | 4.03 1.82–6.24 1.24–6.82 | 5.15 3.15–7.15 2.61–7.68 | 9.18 4.96–13.39 3.86–14.50 | 30% 58% |
| Possession % | 41.53 34.74–48.32 33.07–49.99 | 58.37 51.59–65.16 49.92–66.83 | — | 15% 83% |
| Passes | 351 284–418 265–436 | 483 417–549 399–567 | 834 700–968 665–1003 | 13% 86% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.79 60.76–68.82 59.47–70.12 | 77.22 72.90–81.54 71.59–82.85 | — | 94% |
| Fouls | 16.13 13.29–18.97 12.54–19.72 | 14.09 11.14–17.03 10.40–17.78 | 30.22 24.44–36.00 22.93–37.51 | 61% 32% |
| Offsides | 2.22 1.06–3.38 0.75–3.68 | 2.05 0.95–3.14 0.66–3.43 | 4.26 2.01–6.52 1.42–7.11 | 43% 20% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 3.11 2.06–4.16 1.80–4.43 | 2.47 1.34–3.60 1.05–3.89 | 5.58 3.40–7.76 2.85–8.32 | 52% 17% 31% |
| Red cards | 0.24 0.08–0.40 0.00–0.55 | 0.14 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.38 0.03–0.72 0.00–1.01 | 19% 71% |
| GK saves | 3.54 2.10–4.98 1.72–5.36 | 2.67 1.11–4.23 0.69–4.65 | 6.21 3.22–9.20 2.41–10.02 | 56% 15% 29% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.