Premier League·Regular Season - 11·
Premier League·Regular Season - 11·Predicted match statistics
Goals
36%
28%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.171.162.33safe0.20–2.140.30–2.010.50–4.15safer0.00–2.390.07–2.240.03–4.63
Shots on target
46%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.544.348.88safe2.68–6.402.60–6.095.28–12.49safer2.19–6.892.14–6.554.32–13.44
Total shots
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6713.3026.97safe9.74–17.599.74–16.8719.48–34.46safer8.65–18.688.78–17.8217.43–36.51
Shots in box
47%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction8.468.2316.69safe5.52–11.415.55–10.9111.07–22.31safer4.69–12.234.81–11.649.50–23.88
Blocked shots
50%
16%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.482.966.44safe1.59–5.361.31–4.612.90–9.97safer1.05–5.900.82–5.111.87–11.01
Corners
54%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.604.7610.36safe3.39–7.812.76–6.766.15–14.58safer2.81–8.392.23–7.305.04–15.68
Possession %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction55.4644.49safe48.67–62.2537.71–51.28safer47.00–63.9236.04–52.95
Passes
82%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction421312732safe353–488245–378599–866safer335–506228–396563–902
Pass accuracy %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction65.3664.43safe61.33–69.3960.10–68.75safer60.04–70.6858.79–70.06
Fouls
32%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5916.6831.26safe11.75–17.4313.73–19.6225.48–37.05safer11.00–18.1812.98–20.3723.98–38.55
Offsides
32%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.812.244.04safe0.65–2.971.14–3.331.79–6.30safer0.34–3.270.86–3.621.20–6.89
Yellow cards
36%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.602.935.53safe1.55–3.651.80–4.063.35–7.71safer1.28–3.911.51–4.352.79–8.26
Red cards
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.150.28safe0.00–0.290.00–0.340.00–0.63safer0.00–0.440.00–0.470.00–0.91
GK saves
36%
16%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.923.296.21safe1.48–4.361.73–4.843.21–9.20safer1.10–4.741.30–5.272.40–10.01
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 0.20–2.14 0.00–2.39 | 1.16 0.30–2.01 0.07–2.24 | 2.33 0.50–4.15 0.03–4.63 | 36% 28% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.54 2.68–6.40 2.19–6.89 | 4.34 2.60–6.09 2.14–6.55 | 8.88 5.28–12.49 4.32–13.44 | 46% 14% 41% |
| Total shots | 13.67 9.74–17.59 8.65–18.68 | 13.30 9.74–16.87 8.78–17.82 | 26.97 19.48–34.46 17.43–36.51 | 49% 43% |
| Shots in box | 8.46 5.52–11.41 4.69–12.23 | 8.23 5.55–10.91 4.81–11.64 | 16.69 11.07–22.31 9.50–23.88 | 47% 43% |
| Blocked shots | 3.48 1.59–5.36 1.05–5.90 | 2.96 1.31–4.61 0.82–5.11 | 6.44 2.90–9.97 1.87–11.01 | 50% 16% 34% |
| Corners | 5.60 3.39–7.81 2.81–8.39 | 4.76 2.76–6.76 2.23–7.30 | 10.36 6.15–14.58 5.04–15.68 | 54% 34% |
| Possession % | 55.46 48.67–62.25 47.00–63.92 | 44.49 37.71–51.28 36.04–52.95 | — | 72% 24% |
| Passes | 421 353–488 335–506 | 312 245–378 228–396 | 732 599–866 563–902 | 82% 18% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.36 61.33–69.39 60.04–70.68 | 64.43 60.10–68.75 58.79–70.06 | — | 52% 43% |
| Fouls | 14.59 11.75–17.43 11.00–18.18 | 16.68 13.73–19.62 12.98–20.37 | 31.26 25.48–37.05 23.98–38.55 | 32% 61% |
| Offsides | 1.81 0.65–2.97 0.34–3.27 | 2.24 1.14–3.33 0.86–3.62 | 4.04 1.79–6.30 1.20–6.89 | 32% 20% 48% |
| Yellow cards | 2.60 1.55–3.65 1.28–3.91 | 2.93 1.80–4.06 1.51–4.35 | 5.53 3.35–7.71 2.79–8.26 | 36% 17% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.15 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.47 | 0.28 0.00–0.63 0.00–0.91 | 77% |
| GK saves | 2.92 1.48–4.36 1.10–4.74 | 3.29 1.73–4.84 1.30–5.27 | 6.21 3.21–9.20 2.40–10.01 | 36% 16% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.