Premier League·Regular Season - 16·
Premier League·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
27%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.052.42safe0.40–2.340.19–1.900.59–4.24safer0.15–2.590.00–2.130.11–4.72
Shots on target
56%
13%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.723.788.50safe2.86–6.592.03–5.524.90–12.11safer2.37–7.081.57–5.993.94–13.06
Total shots
76%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction15.5611.3326.89safe11.64–19.487.77–14.8919.40–34.38safer10.54–20.586.81–15.8517.35–36.43
Shots in box
64%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction9.007.0916.09safe6.06–11.944.41–9.7710.46–21.71safer5.23–12.773.67–10.518.90–23.28
Blocked shots
55%
15%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.642.836.47safe1.75–5.521.18–4.482.93–10.00safer1.21–6.060.69–4.981.90–11.04
Corners
49%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.184.749.92safe2.97–7.392.74–6.745.71–14.14safer2.39–7.972.21–7.284.60–15.24
Possession %
38%
58%
homeawayprediction48.1252.42safe41.33–54.9145.63–59.20safer39.66–56.5843.96–60.87
Passes
35%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction341386726safe273–408319–452593–860safer255–426302–470557–896
Pass accuracy %
19%
77%
homeawayprediction59.8666.16safe55.83–63.8961.83–70.48safer54.54–65.1860.52–71.79
Fouls
58%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction16.2514.6330.88safe13.41–19.0911.69–17.5825.10–36.66safer12.66–19.8410.94–18.3323.60–38.17
Offsides
47%
21%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.071.693.76safe0.91–3.240.60–2.781.51–6.02safer0.61–3.540.31–3.070.92–6.61
Yellow cards
33%
17%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.402.895.30safe1.35–3.451.77–4.023.12–7.47safer1.09–3.721.47–4.312.56–8.03
Red cards
75%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.200.31safe0.00–0.260.02–0.390.00–0.65safer0.00–0.410.00–0.520.00–0.94
GK saves
32%
16%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.693.356.04safe1.25–4.121.79–4.913.04–9.03safer0.86–4.511.37–5.332.23–9.84
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 0.40–2.34 0.15–2.59 | 1.05 0.19–1.90 0.00–2.13 | 2.42 0.59–4.24 0.11–4.72 | 44% 27% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.72 2.86–6.59 2.37–7.08 | 3.78 2.03–5.52 1.57–5.99 | 8.50 4.90–12.11 3.94–13.06 | 56% 13% 31% |
| Total shots | 15.56 11.64–19.48 10.54–20.58 | 11.33 7.77–14.89 6.81–15.85 | 26.89 19.40–34.38 17.35–36.43 | 76% 18% |
| Shots in box | 9.00 6.06–11.94 5.23–12.77 | 7.09 4.41–9.77 3.67–10.51 | 16.09 10.46–21.71 8.90–23.28 | 64% 27% |
| Blocked shots | 3.64 1.75–5.52 1.21–6.06 | 2.83 1.18–4.48 0.69–4.98 | 6.47 2.93–10.00 1.90–11.04 | 55% 15% 30% |
| Corners | 5.18 2.97–7.39 2.39–7.97 | 4.74 2.74–6.74 2.21–7.28 | 9.92 5.71–14.14 4.60–15.24 | 49% 38% |
| Possession % | 48.12 41.33–54.91 39.66–56.58 | 52.42 45.63–59.20 43.96–60.87 | — | 38% 58% |
| Passes | 341 273–408 255–426 | 386 319–452 302–470 | 726 593–860 557–896 | 35% 65% |
| Pass accuracy % | 59.86 55.83–63.89 54.54–65.18 | 66.16 61.83–70.48 60.52–71.79 | — | 19% 77% |
| Fouls | 16.25 13.41–19.09 12.66–19.84 | 14.63 11.69–17.58 10.94–18.33 | 30.88 25.10–36.66 23.60–38.17 | 58% 35% |
| Offsides | 2.07 0.91–3.24 0.61–3.54 | 1.69 0.60–2.78 0.31–3.07 | 3.76 1.51–6.02 0.92–6.61 | 47% 21% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 2.40 1.35–3.45 1.09–3.72 | 2.89 1.77–4.02 1.47–4.31 | 5.30 3.12–7.47 2.56–8.03 | 33% 17% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.20 0.02–0.39 0.00–0.52 | 0.31 0.00–0.65 0.00–0.94 | 75% 17% |
| GK saves | 2.69 1.25–4.12 0.86–4.51 | 3.35 1.79–4.91 1.37–5.33 | 6.04 3.04–9.03 2.23–9.84 | 32% 16% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.