Premier League·Regular Season - 11·
Premier League·Regular Season - 11·Predicted match statistics
Goals
70%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.170.742.91safe1.20–3.140.00–1.601.09–4.74safer0.95–3.390.00–1.830.61–5.22
Shots on target
90%
homeawaytotalprediction6.572.368.93safe4.71–8.440.61–4.105.33–12.54safer4.22–8.930.15–4.564.37–13.49
Total shots
99%
homeawaytotalprediction18.516.6725.19safe14.59–22.443.11–10.2317.70–32.67safer13.50–23.532.15–11.1915.65–34.72
Shots in box
97%
homeawaytotalprediction12.204.4016.60safe9.26–15.151.72–7.0810.98–22.23safer8.43–15.970.98–7.829.41–23.79
Blocked shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction5.252.087.33safe3.36–7.130.43–3.733.79–10.86safer2.82–7.670.00–4.232.75–11.90
Corners
91%
homeawaytotalprediction7.562.8910.45safe5.35–9.780.89–4.896.24–14.67safer4.78–10.350.35–5.425.13–15.77
Possession %
94%
homeawayprediction64.0136.03safe57.22–70.8029.24–42.81safer55.55–72.4727.57–44.48
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction577312889safe509–644246–379755–1022safer491–662228–396719–1058
Pass accuracy %
88%
homeawayprediction75.5465.84safe71.51–79.5761.51–70.16safer70.22–80.8660.21–71.47
Fouls
23%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1715.4727.63safe9.33–15.0012.52–18.4121.85–33.41safer8.57–15.7611.77–19.1620.34–34.92
Offsides
45%
24%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.671.363.03safe0.51–2.830.26–2.450.78–5.28safer0.21–3.130.00–2.740.19–5.87
Yellow cards
17%
16%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction1.422.864.28safe0.37–2.471.73–3.992.10–6.46safer0.10–2.731.44–4.281.54–7.01
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.140.21safe0.00–0.230.00–0.320.00–0.56safer0.00–0.380.00–0.460.00–0.84
GK saves
79%
homeawaytotalprediction1.794.296.08safe0.35–3.232.74–5.853.09–9.08safer0.00–3.612.31–6.272.28–9.89
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.17 1.20–3.14 0.95–3.39 | 0.74 0.00–1.60 0.00–1.83 | 2.91 1.09–4.74 0.61–5.22 | 70% 18% |
| Shots on target | 6.57 4.71–8.44 4.22–8.93 | 2.36 0.61–4.10 0.15–4.56 | 8.93 5.33–12.54 4.37–13.49 | 90% |
| Total shots | 18.51 14.59–22.44 13.50–23.53 | 6.67 3.11–10.23 2.15–11.19 | 25.19 17.70–32.67 15.65–34.72 | 99% |
| Shots in box | 12.20 9.26–15.15 8.43–15.97 | 4.40 1.72–7.08 0.98–7.82 | 16.60 10.98–22.23 9.41–23.79 | 97% |
| Blocked shots | 5.25 3.36–7.13 2.82–7.67 | 2.08 0.43–3.73 0.00–4.23 | 7.33 3.79–10.86 2.75–11.90 | 84% |
| Corners | 7.56 5.35–9.78 4.78–10.35 | 2.89 0.89–4.89 0.35–5.42 | 10.45 6.24–14.67 5.13–15.77 | 91% |
| Possession % | 64.01 57.22–70.80 55.55–72.47 | 36.03 29.24–42.81 27.57–44.48 | — | 94% |
| Passes | 577 509–644 491–662 | 312 246–379 228–396 | 889 755–1022 719–1058 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.54 71.51–79.57 70.22–80.86 | 65.84 61.51–70.16 60.21–71.47 | — | 88% |
| Fouls | 12.17 9.33–15.00 8.57–15.76 | 15.47 12.52–18.41 11.77–19.16 | 27.63 21.85–33.41 20.34–34.92 | 23% 70% |
| Offsides | 1.67 0.51–2.83 0.21–3.13 | 1.36 0.26–2.45 0.00–2.74 | 3.03 0.78–5.28 0.19–5.87 | 45% 24% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.42 0.37–2.47 0.10–2.73 | 2.86 1.73–3.99 1.44–4.28 | 4.28 2.10–6.46 1.54–7.01 | 17% 16% 67% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.14 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 1.79 0.35–3.23 0.00–3.61 | 4.29 2.74–5.85 2.31–6.27 | 6.08 3.09–9.08 2.28–9.89 | 79% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.