Premier League·Regular Season - 12·
Premier League·Regular Season - 12·Predicted match statistics
Goals
52%
25%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.640.992.63safe0.67–2.600.14–1.840.80–4.45safer0.42–2.850.00–2.070.32–4.93
Shots on target
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.073.758.82safe3.21–6.932.00–5.495.21–12.42safer2.72–7.421.54–5.964.26–13.38
Total shots
71%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5411.1925.73safe10.62–18.477.63–14.7518.25–33.22safer9.53–19.566.67–15.7116.20–35.27
Shots in box
69%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction9.737.1616.90safe6.79–12.684.48–9.8411.27–22.52safer5.96–13.513.74–10.589.71–24.09
Blocked shots
63%
14%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.172.796.96safe2.29–6.051.14–4.443.42–10.50safer1.75–6.600.64–4.932.39–11.53
Corners
73%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction6.433.9810.41safe4.22–8.641.98–5.986.20–14.62safer3.64–9.221.45–6.525.09–15.73
Possession %
83%
14%
homeawayprediction58.5541.24safe51.76–65.3434.46–48.03safer50.09–67.0132.79–49.70
Passes
91%
homeawaytotalprediction454295750safe387–522229–362616–883safer369–540211–379580–919
Pass accuracy %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction68.0964.07safe64.06–72.1259.75–68.39safer62.77–73.4158.44–69.70
Fouls
16%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9517.9630.91safe10.11–15.7915.02–20.9125.13–36.69safer9.35–16.5414.27–21.6623.62–38.20
Offsides
42%
23%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.573.28safe0.55–2.880.47–2.661.03–5.54safer0.25–3.180.19–2.950.44–6.13
Yellow cards
20%
15%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction1.953.305.26safe0.90–3.002.17–4.433.08–7.43safer0.64–3.271.88–4.722.52–7.99
Red cards
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.190.31safe0.00–0.280.00–0.380.00–0.65safer0.00–0.430.00–0.510.00–0.94
GK saves
27%
16%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.523.475.99safe1.08–3.961.92–5.033.00–8.98safer0.70–4.341.49–5.452.19–9.80
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.64 0.67–2.60 0.42–2.85 | 0.99 0.14–1.84 0.00–2.07 | 2.63 0.80–4.45 0.32–4.93 | 52% 25% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.07 3.21–6.93 2.72–7.42 | 3.75 2.00–5.49 1.54–5.96 | 8.82 5.21–12.42 4.26–13.38 | 61% 27% |
| Total shots | 14.54 10.62–18.47 9.53–19.56 | 11.19 7.63–14.75 6.67–15.71 | 25.73 18.25–33.22 16.20–35.27 | 71% 22% |
| Shots in box | 9.73 6.79–12.68 5.96–13.51 | 7.16 4.48–9.84 3.74–10.58 | 16.90 11.27–22.52 9.71–24.09 | 69% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 4.17 2.29–6.05 1.75–6.60 | 2.79 1.14–4.44 0.64–4.93 | 6.96 3.42–10.50 2.39–11.53 | 63% 14% 23% |
| Corners | 6.43 4.22–8.64 3.64–9.22 | 3.98 1.98–5.98 1.45–6.52 | 10.41 6.20–14.62 5.09–15.73 | 73% 18% |
| Possession % | 58.55 51.76–65.34 50.09–67.01 | 41.24 34.46–48.03 32.79–49.70 | — | 83% 14% |
| Passes | 454 387–522 369–540 | 295 229–362 211–379 | 750 616–883 580–919 | 91% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.09 64.06–72.12 62.77–73.41 | 64.07 59.75–68.39 58.44–69.70 | — | 68% 28% |
| Fouls | 12.95 10.11–15.79 9.35–16.54 | 17.96 15.02–20.91 14.27–21.66 | 30.91 25.13–36.69 23.62–38.20 | 16% 79% |
| Offsides | 1.72 0.55–2.88 0.25–3.18 | 1.57 0.47–2.66 0.19–2.95 | 3.28 1.03–5.54 0.44–6.13 | 42% 23% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.95 0.90–3.00 0.64–3.27 | 3.30 2.17–4.43 1.88–4.72 | 5.26 3.08–7.43 2.52–7.99 | 20% 15% 64% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.19 0.00–0.38 0.00–0.51 | 0.31 0.00–0.65 0.00–0.94 | 75% 16% |
| GK saves | 2.52 1.08–3.96 0.70–4.34 | 3.47 1.92–5.03 1.49–5.45 | 5.99 3.00–8.98 2.19–9.80 | 27% 16% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+