Premier League·Regular Season - 29·
Premier League·Regular Season - 29·Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
26%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.171.482.65safe0.20–2.140.63–2.340.83–4.48safer0.00–2.390.40–2.570.35–4.96
Shots on target
41%
14%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.344.528.86safe2.48–6.212.77–6.265.25–12.46safer1.99–6.702.31–6.724.30–13.42
Total shots
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3912.7926.17safe9.46–17.319.22–16.3518.69–33.66safer8.37–18.408.26–17.3116.64–35.71
Shots in box
45%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction7.927.9015.82safe4.98–10.865.22–10.5910.20–21.45safer4.15–11.694.49–11.328.63–23.01
Blocked shots
39%
16%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.163.386.54safe1.28–5.041.72–5.033.00–10.07safer0.73–5.591.23–5.521.97–11.11
Corners
38%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.705.159.85safe2.49–6.913.15–7.155.63–14.06safer1.91–7.492.62–7.684.53–15.17
Possession %
19%
78%
homeawayprediction43.0557.17safe36.26–49.8450.38–63.95safer34.59–51.5148.71–65.62
Passes
21%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction324420744safe257–392353–486610–878safer239–410336–504575–913
Pass accuracy %
90%
homeawayprediction60.2970.67safe56.27–64.3266.35–75.00safer54.97–65.6265.04–76.30
Fouls
76%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction17.6413.2130.84safe14.80–20.4710.26–16.1525.06–36.62safer14.04–21.239.51–16.9023.55–38.13
Offsides
39%
23%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.671.643.31safe0.51–2.830.55–2.731.05–5.56safer0.21–3.130.26–3.020.47–6.15
Yellow cards
46%
19%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.582.274.85safe1.53–3.621.14–3.402.67–7.02safer1.26–3.890.85–3.692.11–7.58
Red cards
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.150.28safe0.00–0.290.00–0.330.00–0.63safer0.00–0.440.00–0.470.00–0.91
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.912.815.72safe1.48–4.351.25–4.362.73–8.72safer1.09–4.740.83–4.791.92–9.53
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 0.20–2.14 0.00–2.39 | 1.48 0.63–2.34 0.40–2.57 | 2.65 0.83–4.48 0.35–4.96 | 30% 26% 44% |
| Shots on target | 4.34 2.48–6.21 1.99–6.70 | 4.52 2.77–6.26 2.31–6.72 | 8.86 5.25–12.46 4.30–13.42 | 41% 14% 45% |
| Total shots | 13.39 9.46–17.31 8.37–18.40 | 12.79 9.22–16.35 8.26–17.31 | 26.17 18.69–33.66 16.64–35.71 | 51% 41% |
| Shots in box | 7.92 4.98–10.86 4.15–11.69 | 7.90 5.22–10.59 4.49–11.32 | 15.82 10.20–21.45 8.63–23.01 | 45% 45% |
| Blocked shots | 3.16 1.28–5.04 0.73–5.59 | 3.38 1.72–5.03 1.23–5.52 | 6.54 3.00–10.07 1.97–11.11 | 39% 16% 45% |
| Corners | 4.70 2.49–6.91 1.91–7.49 | 5.15 3.15–7.15 2.62–7.68 | 9.85 5.63–14.06 4.53–15.17 | 38% 49% |
| Possession % | 43.05 36.26–49.84 34.59–51.51 | 57.17 50.38–63.95 48.71–65.62 | — | 19% 78% |
| Passes | 324 257–392 239–410 | 420 353–486 336–504 | 744 610–878 575–913 | 21% 79% |
| Pass accuracy % | 60.29 56.27–64.32 54.97–65.62 | 70.67 66.35–75.00 65.04–76.30 | — | 90% |
| Fouls | 17.64 14.80–20.47 14.04–21.23 | 13.21 10.26–16.15 9.51–16.90 | 30.84 25.06–36.62 23.55–38.13 | 76% 19% |
| Offsides | 1.67 0.51–2.83 0.21–3.13 | 1.64 0.55–2.73 0.26–3.02 | 3.31 1.05–5.56 0.47–6.15 | 39% 23% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 2.58 1.53–3.62 1.26–3.89 | 2.27 1.14–3.40 0.85–3.69 | 4.85 2.67–7.02 2.11–7.58 | 46% 19% 35% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.15 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.47 | 0.28 0.00–0.63 0.00–0.91 | 77% |
| GK saves | 2.91 1.48–4.35 1.09–4.74 | 2.81 1.25–4.36 0.83–4.79 | 5.72 2.73–8.72 1.92–9.53 | 43% 17% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+