Predicted match statistics
Goals
21%
22%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.031.872.90safe0.06–2.001.02–2.721.08–4.72safer0.00–2.250.79–2.950.60–5.20
Shots on target
22%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction3.515.328.83safe1.64–5.373.58–7.065.22–12.43safer1.16–5.863.11–7.534.27–13.39
Total shots
22%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8614.2625.13safe6.94–14.7910.70–17.8217.64–32.61safer5.85–15.889.74–18.7815.59–34.66
Shots in box
20%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction6.749.5816.31safe3.79–9.686.89–12.2610.69–21.94safer2.97–10.516.16–12.999.12–23.50
Blocked shots
23%
14%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction2.623.996.62safe0.74–4.512.34–5.653.08–10.15safer0.20–5.051.85–6.142.05–11.19
Corners
27%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction4.195.579.76safe1.98–6.403.57–7.575.55–13.97safer1.40–6.983.04–8.104.44–15.08
Possession %
14%
84%
homeawayprediction41.3158.83safe34.52–48.1052.04–65.61safer32.85–49.7750.37–67.29
Passes
14%
86%
homeawaytotalprediction367495862safe300–435429–562729–996safer282–453411–579693–1032
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction59.8674.11safe55.83–63.8969.79–78.43safer54.54–65.1968.48–79.74
Fouls
70%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction15.1811.9027.08safe12.35–18.028.96–14.8521.30–32.87safer11.59–18.788.21–15.5919.80–34.37
Offsides
63%
16%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction3.081.834.91safe1.92–4.240.74–2.922.66–7.17safer1.62–4.540.45–3.212.07–7.76
Yellow cards
48%
19%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.532.104.63safe1.48–3.580.97–3.232.45–6.81safer1.21–3.840.68–3.521.89–7.37
Red cards
14%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.170.120.28safe0.01–0.330.00–0.300.00–0.63safer0.00–0.480.00–0.440.00–0.91
GK saves
64%
14%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction3.802.426.21safe2.36–5.230.86–3.973.22–9.21safer1.97–5.620.44–4.402.41–10.02
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.03 0.06–2.00 0.00–2.25 | 1.87 1.02–2.72 0.79–2.95 | 2.90 1.08–4.72 0.60–5.20 | 21% 22% 57% |
| Shots on target | 3.51 1.64–5.37 1.16–5.86 | 5.32 3.58–7.06 3.11–7.53 | 8.83 5.22–12.43 4.27–13.39 | 22% 67% |
| Total shots | 10.86 6.94–14.79 5.85–15.88 | 14.26 10.70–17.82 9.74–18.78 | 25.13 17.64–32.61 15.59–34.66 | 22% 72% |
| Shots in box | 6.74 3.79–9.68 2.97–10.51 | 9.58 6.89–12.26 6.16–12.99 | 16.31 10.69–21.94 9.12–23.50 | 20% 72% |
| Blocked shots | 2.62 0.74–4.51 0.20–5.05 | 3.99 2.34–5.65 1.85–6.14 | 6.62 3.08–10.15 2.05–11.19 | 23% 14% 63% |
| Corners | 4.19 1.98–6.40 1.40–6.98 | 5.57 3.57–7.57 3.04–8.10 | 9.76 5.55–13.97 4.44–15.08 | 27% 61% |
| Possession % | 41.31 34.52–48.10 32.85–49.77 | 58.83 52.04–65.61 50.37–67.29 | — | 14% 84% |
| Passes | 367 300–435 282–453 | 495 429–562 411–579 | 862 729–996 693–1032 | 14% 86% |
| Pass accuracy % | 59.86 55.83–63.89 54.54–65.19 | 74.11 69.79–78.43 68.48–79.74 | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 15.18 12.35–18.02 11.59–18.78 | 11.90 8.96–14.85 8.21–15.59 | 27.08 21.30–32.87 19.80–34.37 | 70% 23% |
| Offsides | 3.08 1.92–4.24 1.62–4.54 | 1.83 0.74–2.92 0.45–3.21 | 4.91 2.66–7.17 2.07–7.76 | 63% 16% 21% |
| Yellow cards | 2.53 1.48–3.58 1.21–3.84 | 2.10 0.97–3.23 0.68–3.52 | 4.63 2.45–6.81 1.89–7.37 | 48% 19% 33% |
| Red cards | 0.17 0.01–0.33 0.00–0.48 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.28 0.00–0.63 0.00–0.91 | 14% 77% |
| GK saves | 3.80 2.36–5.23 1.97–5.62 | 2.42 0.86–3.97 0.44–4.40 | 6.21 3.22–9.21 2.41–10.02 | 64% 14% 22% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.