Premier League·Regular Season - 12·
Premier League·Regular Season - 12·Predicted match statistics
Goals
33%
26%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.231.412.64safe0.27–2.200.55–2.260.82–4.46safer0.01–2.450.32–2.490.34–4.94
Shots on target
39%
13%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.424.789.20safe2.56–6.283.03–6.525.59–12.80safer2.07–6.772.57–6.984.63–13.76
Total shots
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3713.2325.61safe8.45–16.309.67–16.8018.12–33.09safer7.36–17.398.71–17.7616.07–35.14
Shots in box
30%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction7.118.6515.76safe4.16–10.055.97–11.3310.13–21.38safer3.33–10.885.23–12.078.57–22.95
Blocked shots
41%
16%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.293.356.63safe1.41–5.171.69–5.003.10–10.17safer0.86–5.711.20–5.492.06–11.20
Corners
37%
13%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.404.919.31safe2.19–6.612.91–6.915.09–13.52safer1.61–7.192.37–7.443.99–14.63
Possession %
23%
74%
homeawayprediction44.5756.33safe37.78–51.3649.54–63.11safer36.11–53.0347.87–64.78
Passes
19%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction375478854safe308–442412–545720–987safer290–461394–562684–1023
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction67.1676.25safe63.13–71.1971.93–80.57safer61.84–72.4870.62–81.88
Fouls
48%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0314.8529.88safe12.20–17.8711.91–17.7924.10–35.67safer11.44–18.6311.16–18.5422.60–37.17
Offsides
22%
18%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.602.644.24safe0.44–2.761.55–3.731.98–6.49safer0.13–3.061.26–4.021.39–7.08
Yellow cards
37%
18%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.452.675.13safe1.40–3.501.55–3.802.95–7.31safer1.14–3.771.25–4.092.39–7.86
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.120.25safe0.00–0.290.00–0.310.00–0.60safer0.00–0.440.00–0.440.00–0.88
GK saves
44%
16%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.223.086.30safe1.79–4.661.52–4.633.31–9.29safer1.40–5.051.10–5.062.49–10.10
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.23 0.27–2.20 0.01–2.45 | 1.41 0.55–2.26 0.32–2.49 | 2.64 0.82–4.46 0.34–4.94 | 33% 26% 41% |
| Shots on target | 4.42 2.56–6.28 2.07–6.77 | 4.78 3.03–6.52 2.57–6.98 | 9.20 5.59–12.80 4.63–13.76 | 39% 13% 48% |
| Total shots | 12.37 8.45–16.30 7.36–17.39 | 13.23 9.67–16.80 8.71–17.76 | 25.61 18.12–33.09 16.07–35.14 | 39% 53% |
| Shots in box | 7.11 4.16–10.05 3.33–10.88 | 8.65 5.97–11.33 5.23–12.07 | 15.76 10.13–21.38 8.57–22.95 | 30% 60% |
| Blocked shots | 3.29 1.41–5.17 0.86–5.71 | 3.35 1.69–5.00 1.20–5.49 | 6.63 3.10–10.17 2.06–11.20 | 41% 16% 43% |
| Corners | 4.40 2.19–6.61 1.61–7.19 | 4.91 2.91–6.91 2.37–7.44 | 9.31 5.09–13.52 3.99–14.63 | 37% 13% 50% |
| Possession % | 44.57 37.78–51.36 36.11–53.03 | 56.33 49.54–63.11 47.87–64.78 | — | 23% 74% |
| Passes | 375 308–442 290–461 | 478 412–545 394–562 | 854 720–987 684–1023 | 19% 80% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.16 63.13–71.19 61.84–72.48 | 76.25 71.93–80.57 70.62–81.88 | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 15.03 12.20–17.87 11.44–18.63 | 14.85 11.91–17.79 11.16–18.54 | 29.88 24.10–35.67 22.60–37.17 | 48% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.60 0.44–2.76 0.13–3.06 | 2.64 1.55–3.73 1.26–4.02 | 4.24 1.98–6.49 1.39–7.08 | 22% 18% 60% |
| Yellow cards | 2.45 1.40–3.50 1.14–3.77 | 2.67 1.55–3.80 1.25–4.09 | 5.13 2.95–7.31 2.39–7.86 | 37% 18% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.25 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 3.22 1.79–4.66 1.40–5.05 | 3.08 1.52–4.63 1.10–5.06 | 6.30 3.31–9.29 2.49–10.10 | 44% 16% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.