Premier League·Regular Season - 24·
Premier League·Regular Season - 24·Predicted match statistics
Goals
54%
23%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.791.072.86safe0.82–2.760.21–1.921.04–4.68safer0.57–3.010.00–2.150.56–5.16
Shots on target
73%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction5.553.248.79safe3.69–7.411.50–4.995.19–12.40safer3.20–7.901.04–5.454.23–13.35
Total shots
87%
homeawaytotalprediction15.709.6725.37safe11.78–19.636.11–13.2317.89–32.86safer10.69–20.725.15–14.1915.84–34.91
Shots in box
84%
homeawaytotalprediction10.345.9016.24safe7.40–13.283.22–8.5810.62–21.87safer6.57–14.112.48–9.329.05–23.43
Blocked shots
64%
13%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.372.897.26safe2.49–6.261.23–4.543.73–10.80safer1.95–6.800.74–5.032.69–11.83
Corners
79%
homeawaytotalprediction6.723.6310.35safe4.51–8.941.63–5.636.14–14.56safer3.94–9.511.09–6.165.03–15.67
Possession %
82%
15%
homeawayprediction58.6142.17safe51.82–65.4035.38–48.95safer50.15–67.0733.71–50.62
Passes
90%
homeawaytotalprediction513359872safe446–580293–426739–1006safer427–598275–443703–1042
Pass accuracy %
68%
27%
homeawayprediction73.5769.35safe69.54–77.6065.03–73.68safer68.25–78.8963.72–74.99
Fouls
40%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9614.8128.77safe11.12–16.7911.87–17.7622.99–34.55safer10.36–17.5511.12–18.5121.48–36.06
Offsides
68%
16%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.831.364.19safe1.67–3.990.27–2.451.94–6.44safer1.37–4.290.00–2.741.35–7.03
Yellow cards
28%
18%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.962.714.66safe0.91–3.001.58–3.842.49–6.84safer0.64–3.271.29–4.131.93–7.40
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.130.22safe0.00–0.250.00–0.320.00–0.57safer0.00–0.400.00–0.450.00–0.85
GK saves
21%
14%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction2.283.726.00safe0.84–3.712.16–5.283.00–8.99safer0.45–4.101.74–5.702.19–9.80
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.79 0.82–2.76 0.57–3.01 | 1.07 0.21–1.92 0.00–2.15 | 2.86 1.04–4.68 0.56–5.16 | 54% 23% 22% |
| Shots on target | 5.55 3.69–7.41 3.20–7.90 | 3.24 1.50–4.99 1.04–5.45 | 8.79 5.19–12.40 4.23–13.35 | 73% 17% |
| Total shots | 15.70 11.78–19.63 10.69–20.72 | 9.67 6.11–13.23 5.15–14.19 | 25.37 17.89–32.86 15.84–34.91 | 87% |
| Shots in box | 10.34 7.40–13.28 6.57–14.11 | 5.90 3.22–8.58 2.48–9.32 | 16.24 10.62–21.87 9.05–23.43 | 84% |
| Blocked shots | 4.37 2.49–6.26 1.95–6.80 | 2.89 1.23–4.54 0.74–5.03 | 7.26 3.73–10.80 2.69–11.83 | 64% 13% 23% |
| Corners | 6.72 4.51–8.94 3.94–9.51 | 3.63 1.63–5.63 1.09–6.16 | 10.35 6.14–14.56 5.03–15.67 | 79% |
| Possession % | 58.61 51.82–65.40 50.15–67.07 | 42.17 35.38–48.95 33.71–50.62 | — | 82% 15% |
| Passes | 513 446–580 427–598 | 359 293–426 275–443 | 872 739–1006 703–1042 | 90% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.57 69.54–77.60 68.25–78.89 | 69.35 65.03–73.68 63.72–74.99 | — | 68% 27% |
| Fouls | 13.96 11.12–16.79 10.36–17.55 | 14.81 11.87–17.76 11.12–18.51 | 28.77 22.99–34.55 21.48–36.06 | 40% 53% |
| Offsides | 2.83 1.67–3.99 1.37–4.29 | 1.36 0.27–2.45 0.00–2.74 | 4.19 1.94–6.44 1.35–7.03 | 68% 16% 16% |
| Yellow cards | 1.96 0.91–3.00 0.64–3.27 | 2.71 1.58–3.84 1.29–4.13 | 4.66 2.49–6.84 1.93–7.40 | 28% 18% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.28 0.84–3.71 0.45–4.10 | 3.72 2.16–5.28 1.74–5.70 | 6.00 3.00–8.99 2.19–9.80 | 21% 14% 65% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.