Premier League·Regular Season - 12·
Premier League·Regular Season - 12·Predicted match statistics
Goals
33%
27%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.151.302.44safe0.18–2.110.44–2.150.62–4.26safer0.00–2.360.21–2.380.14–4.74
Shots on target
40%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.054.268.31safe2.19–5.922.51–6.004.71–11.92safer1.70–6.412.05–6.463.75–12.87
Total shots
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6513.1625.80safe8.72–16.579.60–16.7218.32–33.29safer7.63–17.668.64–17.6816.27–35.34
Shots in box
34%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction7.198.3115.50safe4.25–10.135.63–10.999.88–21.12safer3.42–10.964.89–11.738.31–22.69
Blocked shots
39%
16%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.223.416.62safe1.33–5.101.75–5.063.09–10.16safer0.79–5.641.26–5.552.05–11.19
Corners
38%
13%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.444.869.30safe2.23–6.662.86–6.865.09–13.51safer1.66–7.232.32–7.393.98–14.62
Possession %
41%
55%
homeawayprediction48.5951.58safe41.80–55.3844.79–58.36safer40.13–57.0543.12–60.03
Passes
41%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction358383741safe291–425317–450607–875safer272–443299–467572–910
Pass accuracy %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction61.4066.84safe57.38–65.4362.52–71.16safer56.08–66.7361.21–72.47
Fouls
57%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction16.0414.5530.58safe13.20–18.8711.60–17.4924.80–36.37safer12.44–19.6310.86–18.2423.30–37.87
Offsides
39%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.941.943.88safe0.78–3.100.85–3.031.62–6.13safer0.48–3.400.56–3.321.04–6.72
Yellow cards
41%
20%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.212.194.39safe1.16–3.261.06–3.312.22–6.57safer0.89–3.530.76–3.611.66–7.13
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
45%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.932.685.61safe1.49–4.361.12–4.242.62–8.60safer1.10–4.750.70–4.661.80–9.41
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.15 0.18–2.11 0.00–2.36 | 1.30 0.44–2.15 0.21–2.38 | 2.44 0.62–4.26 0.14–4.74 | 33% 27% 40% |
| Shots on target | 4.05 2.19–5.92 1.70–6.41 | 4.26 2.51–6.00 2.05–6.46 | 8.31 4.71–11.92 3.75–12.87 | 40% 14% 46% |
| Total shots | 12.65 8.72–16.57 7.63–17.66 | 13.16 9.60–16.72 8.64–17.68 | 25.80 18.32–33.29 16.27–35.34 | 42% 50% |
| Shots in box | 7.19 4.25–10.13 3.42–10.96 | 8.31 5.63–10.99 4.89–11.73 | 15.50 9.88–21.12 8.31–22.69 | 34% 56% |
| Blocked shots | 3.22 1.33–5.10 0.79–5.64 | 3.41 1.75–5.06 1.26–5.55 | 6.62 3.09–10.16 2.05–11.19 | 39% 16% 45% |
| Corners | 4.44 2.23–6.66 1.66–7.23 | 4.86 2.86–6.86 2.32–7.39 | 9.30 5.09–13.51 3.98–14.62 | 38% 13% 49% |
| Possession % | 48.59 41.80–55.38 40.13–57.05 | 51.58 44.79–58.36 43.12–60.03 | — | 41% 55% |
| Passes | 358 291–425 272–443 | 383 317–450 299–467 | 741 607–875 572–910 | 41% 58% |
| Pass accuracy % | 61.40 57.38–65.43 56.08–66.73 | 66.84 62.52–71.16 61.21–72.47 | — | 22% 74% |
| Fouls | 16.04 13.20–18.87 12.44–19.63 | 14.55 11.60–17.49 10.86–18.24 | 30.58 24.80–36.37 23.30–37.87 | 57% 36% |
| Offsides | 1.94 0.78–3.10 0.48–3.40 | 1.94 0.85–3.03 0.56–3.32 | 3.88 1.62–6.13 1.04–6.72 | 39% 21% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 2.21 1.16–3.26 0.89–3.53 | 2.19 1.06–3.31 0.76–3.61 | 4.39 2.22–6.57 1.66–7.13 | 41% 20% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.93 1.49–4.36 1.10–4.75 | 2.68 1.12–4.24 0.70–4.66 | 5.61 2.62–8.60 1.80–9.41 | 45% 17% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.