Premier League·Regular Season - 30·
Premier League·Regular Season - 30·Predicted match statistics
Goals
48%
26%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.022.50safe0.52–2.460.16–1.870.68–4.33safer0.27–2.710.00–2.100.20–4.81
Shots on target
56%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.893.918.80safe3.03–6.752.16–5.655.19–12.40safer2.54–7.241.70–6.114.24–13.36
Total shots
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8312.7627.58safe10.90–18.759.19–16.3220.10–35.07safer9.81–19.848.24–17.2818.05–37.12
Shots in box
60%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction9.017.4816.49safe6.07–11.954.80–10.1610.87–22.11safer5.24–12.784.06–10.909.30–23.68
Blocked shots
54%
16%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.522.766.29safe1.64–5.411.11–4.412.75–9.82safer1.10–5.950.62–4.911.72–10.86
Corners
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.434.489.91safe3.22–7.652.48–6.485.70–14.12safer2.64–8.221.94–7.014.59–15.23
Possession %
65%
31%
homeawayprediction53.8146.21safe47.02–60.6039.42–52.99safer45.35–62.2737.75–54.67
Passes
72%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction427357784safe360–494291–424651–918safer342–512273–441615–954
Pass accuracy %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction66.0766.41safe62.04–70.1062.08–70.73safer60.75–71.4060.77–72.04
Fouls
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5815.9029.48safe10.74–16.4212.95–18.8423.69–35.26safer9.98–17.1712.20–19.5922.19–36.76
Offsides
43%
20%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.161.994.14safe1.00–3.320.89–3.081.89–6.40safer0.70–3.620.60–3.371.30–6.99
Yellow cards
32%
20%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.922.374.29safe0.87–2.971.24–3.502.11–6.46safer0.60–3.230.95–3.791.55–7.02
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.110.22safe0.00–0.270.00–0.300.00–0.56safer0.00–0.420.00–0.430.00–0.85
GK saves
33%
16%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.743.336.06safe1.30–4.171.77–4.893.07–9.06safer0.91–4.561.35–5.312.26–9.87
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.49 0.52–2.46 0.27–2.71 | 1.02 0.16–1.87 0.00–2.10 | 2.50 0.68–4.33 0.20–4.81 | 48% 26% 26% |
| Shots on target | 4.89 3.03–6.75 2.54–7.24 | 3.91 2.16–5.65 1.70–6.11 | 8.80 5.19–12.40 4.24–13.36 | 56% 31% |
| Total shots | 14.83 10.90–18.75 9.81–19.84 | 12.76 9.19–16.32 8.24–17.28 | 27.58 20.10–35.07 18.05–37.12 | 62% 31% |
| Shots in box | 9.01 6.07–11.95 5.24–12.78 | 7.48 4.80–10.16 4.06–10.90 | 16.49 10.87–22.11 9.30–23.68 | 60% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 3.52 1.64–5.41 1.10–5.95 | 2.76 1.11–4.41 0.62–4.91 | 6.29 2.75–9.82 1.72–10.86 | 54% 16% 30% |
| Corners | 5.43 3.22–7.65 2.64–8.22 | 4.48 2.48–6.48 1.94–7.01 | 9.91 5.70–14.12 4.59–15.23 | 56% 32% |
| Possession % | 53.81 47.02–60.60 45.35–62.27 | 46.21 39.42–52.99 37.75–54.67 | — | 65% 31% |
| Passes | 427 360–494 342–512 | 357 291–424 273–441 | 784 651–918 615–954 | 72% 28% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.07 62.04–70.10 60.75–71.40 | 66.41 62.08–70.73 60.77–72.04 | — | 46% 49% |
| Fouls | 13.58 10.74–16.42 9.98–17.17 | 15.90 12.95–18.84 12.20–19.59 | 29.48 23.69–35.26 22.19–36.76 | 30% 63% |
| Offsides | 2.16 1.00–3.32 0.70–3.62 | 1.99 0.89–3.08 0.60–3.37 | 4.14 1.89–6.40 1.30–6.99 | 43% 20% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 0.87–2.97 0.60–3.23 | 2.37 1.24–3.50 0.95–3.79 | 4.29 2.11–6.46 1.55–7.02 | 32% 20% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.22 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.85 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.74 1.30–4.17 0.91–4.56 | 3.33 1.77–4.89 1.35–5.31 | 6.06 3.07–9.06 2.26–9.87 | 33% 16% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.