Premier League·Regular Season - 12·
Premier League·Regular Season - 12·Predicted match statistics
Goals
57%
23%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction1.770.942.71safe0.80–2.740.09–1.800.89–4.53safer0.55–2.990.00–2.020.41–5.01
Shots on target
67%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.973.208.18safe3.11–6.841.46–4.944.57–11.78safer2.62–7.330.99–5.413.62–12.74
Total shots
75%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction13.739.9123.64safe9.81–17.666.35–13.4716.16–31.13safer8.72–18.755.39–14.4314.11–33.18
Shots in box
69%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction9.046.5615.60safe6.10–11.983.88–9.249.98–21.22safer5.27–12.813.14–9.988.41–22.79
Blocked shots
54%
16%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.492.706.19safe1.61–5.371.05–4.362.66–9.73safer1.06–5.910.56–4.851.62–10.76
Corners
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.413.949.35safe3.20–7.631.94–5.945.14–13.56safer2.62–8.201.40–6.474.03–14.67
Possession %
95%
homeawayprediction64.6235.63safe57.83–71.4128.84–42.41safer56.16–73.0827.17–44.08
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction544261805safe477–611195–328671–939safer458–629177–345636–974
Pass accuracy %
95%
homeawayprediction75.7262.74safe71.69–79.7558.42–67.07safer70.40–81.0457.11–68.37
Fouls
19%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1716.3828.55safe9.34–15.0113.43–19.3222.77–34.34safer8.58–15.7712.69–20.0721.27–35.84
Offsides
34%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.782.063.84safe0.62–2.940.97–3.161.59–6.10safer0.32–3.240.68–3.441.00–6.69
Yellow cards
23%
15%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction2.183.375.56safe1.14–3.232.24–4.503.38–7.73safer0.87–3.501.95–4.792.82–8.29
Red cards
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.170.27safe0.00–0.260.00–0.360.00–0.62safer0.00–0.410.00–0.490.00–0.90
GK saves
28%
16%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.373.235.60safe0.93–3.801.68–4.792.61–8.59safer0.54–4.191.25–5.211.80–9.40
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.77 0.80–2.74 0.55–2.99 | 0.94 0.09–1.80 0.00–2.02 | 2.71 0.89–4.53 0.41–5.01 | 57% 23% 20% |
| Shots on target | 4.97 3.11–6.84 2.62–7.33 | 3.20 1.46–4.94 0.99–5.41 | 8.18 4.57–11.78 3.62–12.74 | 67% 21% |
| Total shots | 13.73 9.81–17.66 8.72–18.75 | 9.91 6.35–13.47 5.39–14.43 | 23.64 16.16–31.13 14.11–33.18 | 75% 19% |
| Shots in box | 9.04 6.10–11.98 5.27–12.81 | 6.56 3.88–9.24 3.14–9.98 | 15.60 9.98–21.22 8.41–22.79 | 69% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 3.49 1.61–5.37 1.06–5.91 | 2.70 1.05–4.36 0.56–4.85 | 6.19 2.66–9.73 1.62–10.76 | 54% 16% 30% |
| Corners | 5.41 3.20–7.63 2.62–8.20 | 3.94 1.94–5.94 1.40–6.47 | 9.35 5.14–13.56 4.03–14.67 | 62% 26% |
| Possession % | 64.62 57.83–71.41 56.16–73.08 | 35.63 28.84–42.41 27.17–44.08 | — | 95% |
| Passes | 544 477–611 458–629 | 261 195–328 177–345 | 805 671–939 636–974 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.72 71.69–79.75 70.40–81.04 | 62.74 58.42–67.07 57.11–68.37 | — | 95% |
| Fouls | 12.17 9.34–15.01 8.58–15.77 | 16.38 13.43–19.32 12.69–20.07 | 28.55 22.77–34.34 21.27–35.84 | 19% 76% |
| Offsides | 1.78 0.62–2.94 0.32–3.24 | 2.06 0.97–3.16 0.68–3.44 | 3.84 1.59–6.10 1.00–6.69 | 34% 21% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 2.18 1.14–3.23 0.87–3.50 | 3.37 2.24–4.50 1.95–4.79 | 5.56 3.38–7.73 2.82–8.29 | 23% 15% 61% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.36 0.00–0.49 | 0.27 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.90 | 77% 14% |
| GK saves | 2.37 0.93–3.80 0.54–4.19 | 3.23 1.68–4.79 1.25–5.21 | 5.60 2.61–8.59 1.80–9.40 | 28% 16% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.