Premier League·Regular Season - 20·
Premier League·Regular Season - 20·Predicted match statistics
Goals
27%
26%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.081.502.58safe0.12–2.050.64–2.350.76–4.40safer0.00–2.300.41–2.580.28–4.88
Shots on target
37%
14%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.894.308.19safe2.03–5.752.55–6.044.58–11.79safer1.54–6.242.09–6.503.63–12.75
Total shots
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3711.5123.88safe8.45–16.307.95–15.0716.39–31.37safer7.36–17.396.99–16.0314.34–33.42
Shots in box
45%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction7.467.4114.87safe4.52–10.414.73–10.099.25–20.50safer3.69–11.243.99–10.837.68–22.06
Blocked shots
38%
16%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.013.296.30safe1.13–4.891.63–4.942.76–9.83safer0.59–5.441.14–5.431.73–10.87
Corners
46%
13%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.664.429.08safe2.45–6.872.42–6.424.87–13.30safer1.87–7.451.89–6.963.76–14.40
Possession %
90%
homeawayprediction39.0861.73safe32.29–45.8754.95–68.52safer30.62–47.5453.28–70.19
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction282497779safe214–349431–563645–912safer196–367413–581609–948
Pass accuracy %
98%
homeawayprediction58.7574.60safe54.72–62.7870.28–78.93safer53.43–64.0768.97–80.24
Fouls
66%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction16.7313.8730.60safe13.89–19.5610.93–16.8224.82–36.38safer13.13–20.3210.18–17.5723.31–37.88
Offsides
44%
20%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.151.914.05safe0.99–3.310.81–3.001.80–6.31safer0.69–3.610.52–3.291.21–6.90
Yellow cards
50%
17%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.142.615.75safe2.09–4.191.49–3.743.57–7.93safer1.82–4.451.19–4.033.02–8.49
Red cards
18%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction0.230.140.37safe0.06–0.390.00–0.330.02–0.72safer0.00–0.540.00–0.460.00–1.00
GK saves
41%
18%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.662.655.31safe1.23–4.101.09–4.202.32–8.30safer0.84–4.490.66–4.631.50–9.11
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.08 0.12–2.05 0.00–2.30 | 1.50 0.64–2.35 0.41–2.58 | 2.58 0.76–4.40 0.28–4.88 | 27% 26% 47% |
| Shots on target | 3.89 2.03–5.75 1.54–6.24 | 4.30 2.55–6.04 2.09–6.50 | 8.19 4.58–11.79 3.63–12.75 | 37% 14% 49% |
| Total shots | 12.37 8.45–16.30 7.36–17.39 | 11.51 7.95–15.07 6.99–16.03 | 23.88 16.39–31.37 14.34–33.42 | 53% 39% |
| Shots in box | 7.46 4.52–10.41 3.69–11.24 | 7.41 4.73–10.09 3.99–10.83 | 14.87 9.25–20.50 7.68–22.06 | 45% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 3.01 1.13–4.89 0.59–5.44 | 3.29 1.63–4.94 1.14–5.43 | 6.30 2.76–9.83 1.73–10.87 | 38% 16% 46% |
| Corners | 4.66 2.45–6.87 1.87–7.45 | 4.42 2.42–6.42 1.89–6.96 | 9.08 4.87–13.30 3.76–14.40 | 46% 13% 40% |
| Possession % | 39.08 32.29–45.87 30.62–47.54 | 61.73 54.95–68.52 53.28–70.19 | — | 90% |
| Passes | 282 214–349 196–367 | 497 431–563 413–581 | 779 645–912 609–948 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 58.75 54.72–62.78 53.43–64.07 | 74.60 70.28–78.93 68.97–80.24 | — | 98% |
| Fouls | 16.73 13.89–19.56 13.13–20.32 | 13.87 10.93–16.82 10.18–17.57 | 30.60 24.82–36.38 23.31–37.88 | 66% 27% |
| Offsides | 2.15 0.99–3.31 0.69–3.61 | 1.91 0.81–3.00 0.52–3.29 | 4.05 1.80–6.31 1.21–6.90 | 44% 20% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 3.14 2.09–4.19 1.82–4.45 | 2.61 1.49–3.74 1.19–4.03 | 5.75 3.57–7.93 3.02–8.49 | 50% 17% 33% |
| Red cards | 0.23 0.06–0.39 0.00–0.54 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.37 0.02–0.72 0.00–1.00 | 18% 71% |
| GK saves | 2.66 1.23–4.10 0.84–4.49 | 2.65 1.09–4.20 0.66–4.63 | 5.31 2.32–8.30 1.50–9.11 | 41% 18% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.