Premier League·Regular Season - 12·
Premier League·Regular Season - 12·Predicted match statistics
Goals
36%
27%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.221.222.44safe0.25–2.190.37–2.080.62–4.26safer0.00–2.440.14–2.300.14–4.74
Shots on target
38%
14%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.944.348.28safe2.07–5.802.60–6.084.67–11.88safer1.58–6.292.13–6.553.72–12.84
Total shots
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0812.8324.91safe8.16–16.019.27–16.3917.42–32.40safer7.07–17.108.31–17.3515.37–34.45
Shots in box
41%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction7.908.3216.21safe4.95–10.845.64–11.0010.59–21.84safer4.12–11.674.90–11.749.02–23.41
Blocked shots
36%
16%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.163.566.72safe1.28–5.041.91–5.223.19–10.26safer0.73–5.581.42–5.712.15–11.29
Corners
46%
13%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.924.699.61safe2.71–7.132.69–6.695.39–13.82safer2.13–7.712.15–7.224.29–14.93
Possession %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction48.9551.27safe42.16–55.7444.48–58.05safer40.49–57.4142.81–59.72
Passes
41%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction419445864safe352–487379–512731–998safer334–505361–529695–1034
Pass accuracy %
21%
75%
homeawayprediction64.5970.27safe60.56–68.6265.95–74.59safer59.27–69.9164.64–75.90
Fouls
50%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5914.0928.68safe11.75–17.4311.15–17.0322.90–34.46safer10.99–18.1810.40–17.7821.39–35.97
Offsides
46%
23%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.393.15safe0.59–2.910.30–2.480.89–5.40safer0.29–3.220.01–2.770.30–5.99
Yellow cards
42%
19%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.372.304.67safe1.32–3.421.17–3.432.49–6.85safer1.05–3.680.88–3.721.94–7.41
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.130.23safe0.00–0.260.00–0.320.00–0.58safer0.00–0.410.00–0.450.00–0.86
GK saves
46%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.082.815.90safe1.65–4.521.26–4.372.91–8.89safer1.26–4.910.83–4.802.09–9.70
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.22 0.25–2.19 0.00–2.44 | 1.22 0.37–2.08 0.14–2.30 | 2.44 0.62–4.26 0.14–4.74 | 36% 27% 36% |
| Shots on target | 3.94 2.07–5.80 1.58–6.29 | 4.34 2.60–6.08 2.13–6.55 | 8.28 4.67–11.88 3.72–12.84 | 38% 14% 49% |
| Total shots | 12.08 8.16–16.01 7.07–17.10 | 12.83 9.27–16.39 8.31–17.35 | 24.91 17.42–32.40 15.37–34.45 | 40% 52% |
| Shots in box | 7.90 4.95–10.84 4.12–11.67 | 8.32 5.64–11.00 4.90–11.74 | 16.21 10.59–21.84 9.02–23.41 | 41% 49% |
| Blocked shots | 3.16 1.28–5.04 0.73–5.58 | 3.56 1.91–5.22 1.42–5.71 | 6.72 3.19–10.26 2.15–11.29 | 36% 16% 48% |
| Corners | 4.92 2.71–7.13 2.13–7.71 | 4.69 2.69–6.69 2.15–7.22 | 9.61 5.39–13.82 4.29–14.93 | 46% 13% 41% |
| Possession % | 48.95 42.16–55.74 40.49–57.41 | 51.27 44.48–58.05 42.81–59.72 | — | 42% 53% |
| Passes | 419 352–487 334–505 | 445 379–512 361–529 | 864 731–998 695–1034 | 41% 58% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.59 60.56–68.62 59.27–69.91 | 70.27 65.95–74.59 64.64–75.90 | — | 21% 75% |
| Fouls | 14.59 11.75–17.43 10.99–18.18 | 14.09 11.15–17.03 10.40–17.78 | 28.68 22.90–34.46 21.39–35.97 | 50% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.75 0.59–2.91 0.29–3.22 | 1.39 0.30–2.48 0.01–2.77 | 3.15 0.89–5.40 0.30–5.99 | 46% 23% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 2.37 1.32–3.42 1.05–3.68 | 2.30 1.17–3.43 0.88–3.72 | 4.67 2.49–6.85 1.94–7.41 | 42% 19% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 80% |
| GK saves | 3.08 1.65–4.52 1.26–4.91 | 2.81 1.26–4.37 0.83–4.80 | 5.90 2.91–8.89 2.09–9.70 | 46% 17% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.