Premier League·Regular Season - 27·
Premier League·Regular Season - 27·Predicted match statistics
Goals
48%
26%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.042.56safe0.55–2.480.19–1.900.73–4.38safer0.30–2.730.00–2.120.25–4.86
Shots on target
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.123.628.73safe3.25–6.981.87–5.365.13–12.34safer2.76–7.471.41–5.824.17–13.29
Total shots
82%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction15.5910.4426.03safe11.66–19.516.87–14.0018.54–33.51safer10.57–20.615.91–14.9616.49–35.56
Shots in box
72%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction9.606.7916.39safe6.66–12.544.11–9.4710.77–22.01safer5.83–13.373.37–10.219.20–23.58
Blocked shots
64%
14%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.002.566.56safe2.11–5.880.91–4.223.02–10.09safer1.57–6.420.42–4.711.99–11.13
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.744.3410.08safe3.53–7.952.34–6.345.86–14.29safer2.95–8.531.81–6.874.76–15.40
Possession %
58%
37%
homeawayprediction51.7447.27safe44.95–58.5340.49–54.06safer43.28–60.2038.82–55.73
Passes
73%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction468394863safe401–536328–461729–996safer383–554310–478693–1032
Pass accuracy %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction68.3568.59safe64.32–72.3864.26–72.91safer63.03–73.6762.95–74.22
Fouls
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7315.2428.97safe10.89–16.5712.30–18.1923.19–34.75safer10.14–17.3211.55–18.9321.68–36.26
Offsides
34%
23%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.813.38safe0.41–2.730.72–2.901.13–5.64safer0.11–3.030.43–3.190.54–6.22
Yellow cards
30%
19%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.892.454.34safe0.84–2.941.33–3.582.16–6.52safer0.57–3.201.03–3.871.61–7.08
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.140.24safe0.00–0.250.00–0.330.00–0.58safer0.00–0.400.00–0.460.00–0.87
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.503.335.84safe1.07–3.941.78–4.892.84–8.83safer0.68–4.331.35–5.312.03–9.64
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.52 0.55–2.48 0.30–2.73 | 1.04 0.19–1.90 0.00–2.12 | 2.56 0.73–4.38 0.25–4.86 | 48% 26% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.12 3.25–6.98 2.76–7.47 | 3.62 1.87–5.36 1.41–5.82 | 8.73 5.13–12.34 4.17–13.29 | 63% 25% |
| Total shots | 15.59 11.66–19.51 10.57–20.61 | 10.44 6.87–14.00 5.91–14.96 | 26.03 18.54–33.51 16.49–35.56 | 82% 13% |
| Shots in box | 9.60 6.66–12.54 5.83–13.37 | 6.79 4.11–9.47 3.37–10.21 | 16.39 10.77–22.01 9.20–23.58 | 72% 21% |
| Blocked shots | 4.00 2.11–5.88 1.57–6.42 | 2.56 0.91–4.22 0.42–4.71 | 6.56 3.02–10.09 1.99–11.13 | 64% 14% 22% |
| Corners | 5.74 3.53–7.95 2.95–8.53 | 4.34 2.34–6.34 1.81–6.87 | 10.08 5.86–14.29 4.76–15.40 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 51.74 44.95–58.53 43.28–60.20 | 47.27 40.49–54.06 38.82–55.73 | — | 58% 37% |
| Passes | 468 401–536 383–554 | 394 328–461 310–478 | 863 729–996 693–1032 | 73% 27% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.35 64.32–72.38 63.03–73.67 | 68.59 64.26–72.91 62.95–74.22 | — | 46% 49% |
| Fouls | 13.73 10.89–16.57 10.14–17.32 | 15.24 12.30–18.19 11.55–18.93 | 28.97 23.19–34.75 21.68–36.26 | 35% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.57 0.41–2.73 0.11–3.03 | 1.81 0.72–2.90 0.43–3.19 | 3.38 1.13–5.64 0.54–6.22 | 34% 23% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 1.89 0.84–2.94 0.57–3.20 | 2.45 1.33–3.58 1.03–3.87 | 4.34 2.16–6.52 1.61–7.08 | 30% 19% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.24 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.87 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.50 1.07–3.94 0.68–4.33 | 3.33 1.78–4.89 1.35–5.31 | 5.84 2.84–8.83 2.03–9.64 | 29% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.