Premier League·Regular Season - 13·
Premier League·Regular Season - 13·Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
30%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.140.962.10safe0.17–2.110.10–1.810.27–3.92safer0.00–2.360.00–2.040.00–4.40
Shots on target
53%
14%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.043.297.33safe2.17–5.901.55–5.043.72–10.93safer1.68–6.391.08–5.502.77–11.89
Total shots
64%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7110.4323.14safe8.79–16.646.87–13.9915.65–30.63safer7.69–17.735.91–14.9513.60–32.68
Shots in box
63%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction7.435.7513.19safe4.49–10.383.07–8.437.56–18.81safer3.66–11.212.33–9.176.00–20.38
Blocked shots
56%
16%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.242.395.63safe1.36–5.130.74–4.042.10–9.17safer0.82–5.670.24–4.531.06–10.20
Corners
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.483.819.29safe3.27–7.701.81–5.815.08–13.50safer2.70–8.271.28–6.343.97–14.61
Possession %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction54.6045.54safe47.81–61.3938.75–52.32safer46.14–63.0637.08–53.99
Passes
75%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction418335753safe351–485268–401619–886safer333–503251–419583–922
Pass accuracy %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction60.7761.93safe56.74–64.8057.60–66.25safer55.44–66.0956.29–67.56
Fouls
28%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9816.6330.61safe11.14–16.8213.68–19.5724.82–36.39safer10.39–17.5712.93–20.3223.32–37.89
Offsides
27%
21%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.492.103.58safe0.33–2.651.01–3.191.33–5.84safer0.02–2.950.72–3.480.74–6.43
Yellow cards
29%
17%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.323.055.37safe1.27–3.371.92–4.183.19–7.55safer1.00–3.631.63–4.472.64–8.11
Red cards
75%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.170.31safe0.00–0.300.00–0.360.00–0.66safer0.00–0.450.00–0.490.00–0.94
GK saves
34%
18%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.312.705.00safe0.87–3.741.14–4.252.01–8.00safer0.48–4.130.72–4.681.20–8.81
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.14 0.17–2.11 0.00–2.36 | 0.96 0.10–1.81 0.00–2.04 | 2.10 0.27–3.92 0.00–4.40 | 40% 30% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.04 2.17–5.90 1.68–6.39 | 3.29 1.55–5.04 1.08–5.50 | 7.33 3.72–10.93 2.77–11.89 | 53% 14% 32% |
| Total shots | 12.71 8.79–16.64 7.69–17.73 | 10.43 6.87–13.99 5.91–14.95 | 23.14 15.65–30.63 13.60–32.68 | 64% 28% |
| Shots in box | 7.43 4.49–10.38 3.66–11.21 | 5.75 3.07–8.43 2.33–9.17 | 13.19 7.56–18.81 6.00–20.38 | 63% 27% |
| Blocked shots | 3.24 1.36–5.13 0.82–5.67 | 2.39 0.74–4.04 0.24–4.53 | 5.63 2.10–9.17 1.06–10.20 | 56% 16% 28% |
| Corners | 5.48 3.27–7.70 2.70–8.27 | 3.81 1.81–5.81 1.28–6.34 | 9.29 5.08–13.50 3.97–14.61 | 65% 24% |
| Possession % | 54.60 47.81–61.39 46.14–63.06 | 45.54 38.75–52.32 37.08–53.99 | — | 68% 28% |
| Passes | 418 351–485 333–503 | 335 268–401 251–419 | 753 619–886 583–922 | 75% 24% |
| Pass accuracy % | 60.77 56.74–64.80 55.44–66.09 | 61.93 57.60–66.25 56.29–67.56 | — | 42% 53% |
| Fouls | 13.98 11.14–16.82 10.39–17.57 | 16.63 13.68–19.57 12.93–20.32 | 30.61 24.82–36.39 23.32–37.89 | 28% 65% |
| Offsides | 1.49 0.33–2.65 0.02–2.95 | 2.10 1.01–3.19 0.72–3.48 | 3.58 1.33–5.84 0.74–6.43 | 27% 21% 52% |
| Yellow cards | 2.32 1.27–3.37 1.00–3.63 | 3.05 1.92–4.18 1.63–4.47 | 5.37 3.19–7.55 2.64–8.11 | 29% 17% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.17 0.00–0.36 0.00–0.49 | 0.31 0.00–0.66 0.00–0.94 | 75% 14% |
| GK saves | 2.31 0.87–3.74 0.48–4.13 | 2.70 1.14–4.25 0.72–4.68 | 5.00 2.01–8.00 1.20–8.81 | 34% 18% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+