Premier League·Regular Season - 28·
Premier League·Regular Season - 28·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
29%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.191.072.26safe0.23–2.160.21–1.920.44–4.09safer0.00–2.410.00–2.150.00–4.57
Shots on target
51%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.083.527.59safe2.21–5.941.77–5.263.99–11.20safer1.72–6.431.31–5.733.03–12.15
Total shots
59%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1510.5422.69safe8.23–16.086.97–14.1015.20–30.17safer7.13–17.176.01–15.0613.15–32.22
Shots in box
55%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction7.636.6414.28safe4.69–10.583.96–9.328.66–19.90safer3.86–11.413.23–10.067.09–21.47
Blocked shots
45%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.922.685.60safe1.04–4.801.03–4.332.07–9.14safer0.50–5.350.53–4.821.03–10.17
Corners
47%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.564.258.81safe2.34–6.772.25–6.254.59–13.02safer1.77–7.341.72–6.793.49–14.13
Possession %
47%
49%
homeawayprediction49.4849.85safe42.69–56.2743.07–56.64safer41.02–57.9441.40–58.31
Passes
54%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction383371754safe315–450305–438620–888safer297–468287–455585–923
Pass accuracy %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction60.4664.32safe56.43–64.4959.99–68.64safer55.14–65.7858.69–69.95
Fouls
47%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5914.5129.10safe11.75–17.4311.56–17.4523.31–34.88safer10.99–18.1810.82–18.2021.81–36.38
Offsides
53%
21%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.031.373.40safe0.87–3.190.28–2.471.14–5.65safer0.56–3.490.00–2.750.56–6.24
Yellow cards
35%
19%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.202.504.70safe1.15–3.251.37–3.632.52–6.88safer0.89–3.521.08–3.921.97–7.44
Red cards
76%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.150.29safe0.00–0.300.00–0.340.00–0.64safer0.00–0.450.00–0.470.00–0.92
GK saves
36%
18%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.472.805.27safe1.04–3.911.25–4.362.28–8.27safer0.65–4.300.82–4.781.47–9.08
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.19 0.23–2.16 0.00–2.41 | 1.07 0.21–1.92 0.00–2.15 | 2.26 0.44–4.09 0.00–4.57 | 39% 29% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.08 2.21–5.94 1.72–6.43 | 3.52 1.77–5.26 1.31–5.73 | 7.59 3.99–11.20 3.03–12.15 | 51% 14% 35% |
| Total shots | 12.15 8.23–16.08 7.13–17.17 | 10.54 6.97–14.10 6.01–15.06 | 22.69 15.20–30.17 13.15–32.22 | 59% 33% |
| Shots in box | 7.63 4.69–10.58 3.86–11.41 | 6.64 3.96–9.32 3.23–10.06 | 14.28 8.66–19.90 7.09–21.47 | 55% 35% |
| Blocked shots | 2.92 1.04–4.80 0.50–5.35 | 2.68 1.03–4.33 0.53–4.82 | 5.60 2.07–9.14 1.03–10.17 | 45% 17% 37% |
| Corners | 4.56 2.34–6.77 1.77–7.34 | 4.25 2.25–6.25 1.72–6.79 | 8.81 4.59–13.02 3.49–14.13 | 47% 14% 39% |
| Possession % | 49.48 42.69–56.27 41.02–57.94 | 49.85 43.07–56.64 41.40–58.31 | — | 47% 49% |
| Passes | 383 315–450 297–468 | 371 305–438 287–455 | 754 620–888 585–923 | 54% 46% |
| Pass accuracy % | 60.46 56.43–64.49 55.14–65.78 | 64.32 59.99–68.64 58.69–69.95 | — | 29% 67% |
| Fouls | 14.59 11.75–17.43 10.99–18.18 | 14.51 11.56–17.45 10.82–18.20 | 29.10 23.31–34.88 21.81–36.38 | 47% 46% |
| Offsides | 2.03 0.87–3.19 0.56–3.49 | 1.37 0.28–2.47 0.00–2.75 | 3.40 1.14–5.65 0.56–6.24 | 53% 21% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 2.20 1.15–3.25 0.89–3.52 | 2.50 1.37–3.63 1.08–3.92 | 4.70 2.52–6.88 1.97–7.44 | 35% 19% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.15 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.47 | 0.29 0.00–0.64 0.00–0.92 | 76% |
| GK saves | 2.47 1.04–3.91 0.65–4.30 | 2.80 1.25–4.36 0.82–4.78 | 5.27 2.28–8.27 1.47–9.08 | 36% 18% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.