Predicted match statistics
Goals
55%
22%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.931.163.09safe0.96–2.900.30–2.011.27–4.91safer0.71–3.150.08–2.240.79–5.39
Shots on target
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.743.769.50safe3.88–7.612.02–5.505.90–13.11safer3.39–8.101.55–5.974.94–14.06
Total shots
79%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0810.5125.59safe11.16–19.016.94–14.0718.10–33.07safer10.06–20.105.99–15.0316.05–35.13
Shots in box
75%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction9.616.4116.02safe6.67–12.553.73–9.0910.39–21.64safer5.84–13.382.99–9.828.83–23.21
Blocked shots
73%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction4.022.026.04safe2.13–5.900.37–3.672.50–9.57safer1.59–6.440.00–4.171.47–10.61
Corners
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.333.889.21safe3.12–7.541.88–5.885.00–13.43safer2.54–8.121.35–6.423.89–14.53
Possession %
79%
18%
homeawayprediction57.3842.73safe50.58–64.1735.95–49.52safer48.92–65.8434.28–51.19
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction489345834safe422–556279–412700–968safer403–574261–429665–1003
Pass accuracy %
76%
20%
homeawayprediction72.5666.66safe68.53–76.5962.34–70.99safer67.24–77.8861.03–72.30
Fouls
40%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2814.1727.45safe10.44–16.1211.23–17.1121.67–33.23safer9.68–16.8710.48–17.8620.16–34.73
Offsides
17%
15%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction1.573.084.65safe0.41–2.731.99–4.172.40–6.90safer0.11–3.031.70–4.461.81–7.49
Yellow cards
29%
18%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.002.684.68safe0.95–3.051.55–3.812.50–6.86safer0.68–3.321.26–4.101.95–7.42
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.130.22safe0.00–0.240.00–0.320.00–0.56safer0.00–0.390.00–0.450.00–0.85
GK saves
23%
14%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction2.413.746.16safe0.98–3.852.19–5.303.17–9.15safer0.59–4.241.76–5.722.35–9.96
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.93 0.96–2.90 0.71–3.15 | 1.16 0.30–2.01 0.08–2.24 | 3.09 1.27–4.91 0.79–5.39 | 55% 22% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.74 3.88–7.61 3.39–8.10 | 3.76 2.02–5.50 1.55–5.97 | 9.50 5.90–13.11 4.94–14.06 | 68% 21% |
| Total shots | 15.08 11.16–19.01 10.06–20.10 | 10.51 6.94–14.07 5.99–15.03 | 25.59 18.10–33.07 16.05–35.13 | 79% 16% |
| Shots in box | 9.61 6.67–12.55 5.84–13.38 | 6.41 3.73–9.09 2.99–9.82 | 16.02 10.39–21.64 8.83–23.21 | 75% 18% |
| Blocked shots | 4.02 2.13–5.90 1.59–6.44 | 2.02 0.37–3.67 0.00–4.17 | 6.04 2.50–9.57 1.47–10.61 | 73% 15% |
| Corners | 5.33 3.12–7.54 2.54–8.12 | 3.88 1.88–5.88 1.35–6.42 | 9.21 5.00–13.43 3.89–14.53 | 62% 26% |
| Possession % | 57.38 50.58–64.17 48.92–65.84 | 42.73 35.95–49.52 34.28–51.19 | — | 79% 18% |
| Passes | 489 422–556 403–574 | 345 279–412 261–429 | 834 700–968 665–1003 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.56 68.53–76.59 67.24–77.88 | 66.66 62.34–70.99 61.03–72.30 | — | 76% 20% |
| Fouls | 13.28 10.44–16.12 9.68–16.87 | 14.17 11.23–17.11 10.48–17.86 | 27.45 21.67–33.23 20.16–34.73 | 40% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.57 0.41–2.73 0.11–3.03 | 3.08 1.99–4.17 1.70–4.46 | 4.65 2.40–6.90 1.81–7.49 | 17% 15% 68% |
| Yellow cards | 2.00 0.95–3.05 0.68–3.32 | 2.68 1.55–3.81 1.26–4.10 | 4.68 2.50–6.86 1.95–7.42 | 29% 18% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.22 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.41 0.98–3.85 0.59–4.24 | 3.74 2.19–5.30 1.76–5.72 | 6.16 3.17–9.15 2.35–9.96 | 23% 14% 63% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.