Predicted match statistics
Goals
33%
25%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.351.552.89safe0.38–2.310.69–2.401.07–4.71safer0.13–2.560.46–2.630.59–5.19
Shots on target
35%
13%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.044.658.70safe2.18–5.902.91–6.405.09–12.30safer1.69–6.392.45–6.864.14–13.26
Total shots
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3312.9424.27safe7.40–15.259.38–16.5116.78–31.76safer6.31–16.348.42–17.4714.73–33.81
Shots in box
33%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction7.368.5515.91safe4.42–10.305.87–11.2310.28–21.53safer3.59–11.135.13–11.978.72–23.10
Blocked shots
31%
15%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.023.796.81safe1.13–4.902.14–5.453.27–10.34safer0.59–5.441.65–5.942.24–11.38
Corners
40%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.744.989.72safe2.52–6.952.98–6.985.50–13.93safer1.95–7.522.45–7.514.39–15.04
Possession %
24%
72%
homeawayprediction44.8055.83safe38.01–51.5949.04–62.61safer36.34–53.2647.37–64.28
Passes
24%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction381464844safe313–448397–530710–978safer295–466380–548675–1014
Pass accuracy %
88%
homeawayprediction62.7572.53safe58.72–66.7868.21–76.85safer57.43–68.0766.90–78.16
Fouls
39%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7014.7528.46safe10.86–16.5411.81–17.7022.67–34.24safer10.11–17.2911.06–18.4521.17–35.74
Offsides
70%
15%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction3.101.464.56safe1.94–4.260.37–2.562.31–6.82safer1.64–4.560.08–2.841.72–7.41
Yellow cards
35%
20%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.072.334.40safe1.02–3.121.20–3.462.22–6.58safer0.75–3.390.91–3.751.66–7.13
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.130.27safe0.00–0.300.00–0.310.00–0.61safer0.00–0.450.00–0.450.00–0.90
GK saves
50%
16%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.212.725.92safe1.77–4.641.16–4.272.93–8.92safer1.38–5.030.74–4.702.12–9.73
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 0.38–2.31 0.13–2.56 | 1.55 0.69–2.40 0.46–2.63 | 2.89 1.07–4.71 0.59–5.19 | 33% 25% 42% |
| Shots on target | 4.04 2.18–5.90 1.69–6.39 | 4.65 2.91–6.40 2.45–6.86 | 8.70 5.09–12.30 4.14–13.26 | 35% 13% 51% |
| Total shots | 11.33 7.40–15.25 6.31–16.34 | 12.94 9.38–16.51 8.42–17.47 | 24.27 16.78–31.76 14.73–33.81 | 33% 59% |
| Shots in box | 7.36 4.42–10.30 3.59–11.13 | 8.55 5.87–11.23 5.13–11.97 | 15.91 10.28–21.53 8.72–23.10 | 33% 57% |
| Blocked shots | 3.02 1.13–4.90 0.59–5.44 | 3.79 2.14–5.45 1.65–5.94 | 6.81 3.27–10.34 2.24–11.38 | 31% 15% 54% |
| Corners | 4.74 2.52–6.95 1.95–7.52 | 4.98 2.98–6.98 2.45–7.51 | 9.72 5.50–13.93 4.39–15.04 | 40% 47% |
| Possession % | 44.80 38.01–51.59 36.34–53.26 | 55.83 49.04–62.61 47.37–64.28 | — | 24% 72% |
| Passes | 381 313–448 295–466 | 464 397–530 380–548 | 844 710–978 675–1014 | 24% 75% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.75 58.72–66.78 57.43–68.07 | 72.53 68.21–76.85 66.90–78.16 | — | 88% |
| Fouls | 13.70 10.86–16.54 10.11–17.29 | 14.75 11.81–17.70 11.06–18.45 | 28.46 22.67–34.24 21.17–35.74 | 39% 54% |
| Offsides | 3.10 1.94–4.26 1.64–4.56 | 1.46 0.37–2.56 0.08–2.84 | 4.56 2.31–6.82 1.72–7.41 | 70% 15% 15% |
| Yellow cards | 2.07 1.02–3.12 0.75–3.39 | 2.33 1.20–3.46 0.91–3.75 | 4.40 2.22–6.58 1.66–7.13 | 35% 20% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.13 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.27 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.90 | 78% |
| GK saves | 3.21 1.77–4.64 1.38–5.03 | 2.72 1.16–4.27 0.74–4.70 | 5.92 2.93–8.92 2.12–9.73 | 50% 16% 34% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.