Premier League·Regular Season - 13·
Premier League·Regular Season - 13·Predicted match statistics
Goals
17%
20%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction0.982.123.10safe0.01–1.951.26–2.971.27–4.92safer0.00–2.201.03–3.200.79–5.40
Shots on target
23%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction3.755.489.24safe1.89–5.623.74–7.235.63–12.84safer1.40–6.113.27–7.694.68–13.80
Total shots
24%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5414.6026.14safe7.61–15.4611.04–18.1718.65–33.63safer6.52–16.5510.08–19.1316.60–35.68
Shots in box
14%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction6.189.9416.12safe3.24–9.127.26–12.6210.50–21.74safer2.41–9.956.52–13.368.93–23.31
Blocked shots
28%
14%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.034.037.07safe1.15–4.922.38–5.683.53–10.60safer0.61–5.461.89–6.182.50–11.64
Corners
25%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction4.205.8410.03safe1.98–6.413.84–7.845.82–14.24safer1.41–6.983.30–8.374.71–15.35
Possession %
89%
homeawayprediction38.8360.81safe32.04–45.6254.03–67.60safer30.37–47.2952.36–69.27
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction345524869safe277–412458–591735–1003safer259–430440–608700–1038
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction65.6080.10safe61.57–69.6375.77–84.42safer60.28–70.9274.47–85.73
Fouls
76%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction17.0612.6929.75safe14.23–19.909.74–15.6323.97–35.53safer13.47–20.669.00–16.3822.47–37.04
Offsides
32%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.893.47safe0.42–2.740.80–2.991.22–5.72safer0.12–3.040.51–3.270.63–6.31
Yellow cards
53%
18%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction2.681.974.66safe1.63–3.730.85–3.102.48–6.84safer1.37–4.000.55–3.391.92–7.39
Red cards
17%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction0.210.100.31safe0.05–0.370.00–0.290.00–0.66safer0.00–0.520.00–0.420.00–0.94
GK saves
58%
15%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction3.582.596.16safe2.14–5.011.03–4.143.17–9.16safer1.75–5.400.60–4.572.36–9.97
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.98 0.01–1.95 0.00–2.20 | 2.12 1.26–2.97 1.03–3.20 | 3.10 1.27–4.92 0.79–5.40 | 17% 20% 63% |
| Shots on target | 3.75 1.89–5.62 1.40–6.11 | 5.48 3.74–7.23 3.27–7.69 | 9.24 5.63–12.84 4.68–13.80 | 23% 66% |
| Total shots | 11.54 7.61–15.46 6.52–16.55 | 14.60 11.04–18.17 10.08–19.13 | 26.14 18.65–33.63 16.60–35.68 | 24% 69% |
| Shots in box | 6.18 3.24–9.12 2.41–9.95 | 9.94 7.26–12.62 6.52–13.36 | 16.12 10.50–21.74 8.93–23.31 | 14% 79% |
| Blocked shots | 3.03 1.15–4.92 0.61–5.46 | 4.03 2.38–5.68 1.89–6.18 | 7.07 3.53–10.60 2.50–11.64 | 28% 14% 57% |
| Corners | 4.20 1.98–6.41 1.41–6.98 | 5.84 3.84–7.84 3.30–8.37 | 10.03 5.82–14.24 4.71–15.35 | 25% 64% |
| Possession % | 38.83 32.04–45.62 30.37–47.29 | 60.81 54.03–67.60 52.36–69.27 | — | 89% |
| Passes | 345 277–412 259–430 | 524 458–591 440–608 | 869 735–1003 700–1038 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.60 61.57–69.63 60.28–70.92 | 80.10 75.77–84.42 74.47–85.73 | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 17.06 14.23–19.90 13.47–20.66 | 12.69 9.74–15.63 9.00–16.38 | 29.75 23.97–35.53 22.47–37.04 | 76% 18% |
| Offsides | 1.58 0.42–2.74 0.12–3.04 | 1.89 0.80–2.99 0.51–3.27 | 3.47 1.22–5.72 0.63–6.31 | 32% 22% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 2.68 1.63–3.73 1.37–4.00 | 1.97 0.85–3.10 0.55–3.39 | 4.66 2.48–6.84 1.92–7.39 | 53% 18% 28% |
| Red cards | 0.21 0.05–0.37 0.00–0.52 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.31 0.00–0.66 0.00–0.94 | 17% 75% |
| GK saves | 3.58 2.14–5.01 1.75–5.40 | 2.59 1.03–4.14 0.60–4.57 | 6.16 3.17–9.16 2.36–9.97 | 58% 15% 27% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.