Premier League·Regular Season - 13·
Premier League·Regular Season - 13·Predicted match statistics
Goals
19%
22%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction0.971.882.85safe0.00–1.941.03–2.731.03–4.67safer0.00–2.190.80–2.960.55–5.15
Shots on target
21%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction3.635.579.21safe1.77–5.503.83–7.325.60–12.81safer1.28–5.993.36–7.784.65–13.77
Total shots
19%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2315.2926.52safe7.30–15.1511.73–18.8619.04–34.01safer6.21–16.2410.77–19.8216.99–36.06
Shots in box
19%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction6.599.6116.21safe3.65–9.546.93–12.3010.58–21.83safer2.82–10.366.20–13.039.02–23.40
Blocked shots
27%
15%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.723.806.52safe0.84–4.602.14–5.452.99–10.06safer0.30–5.151.65–5.941.95–11.09
Corners
25%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction3.815.379.18safe1.60–6.023.37–7.374.96–13.39safer1.02–6.602.83–7.903.86–14.50
Possession %
18%
78%
homeawayprediction43.0757.36safe36.28–49.8650.57–64.14safer34.61–51.5348.90–65.81
Passes
19%
81%
homeawaytotalprediction368473841safe301–435407–540707–975safer282–453389–557671–1010
Pass accuracy %
94%
homeawayprediction63.7576.11safe59.73–67.7871.78–80.43safer58.43–69.0870.47–81.74
Fouls
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction16.4513.9830.43safe13.62–19.2911.03–16.9224.65–36.21safer12.86–20.0510.28–17.6723.14–37.72
Offsides
38%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.791.863.65safe0.63–2.950.77–2.961.40–5.90safer0.32–3.250.48–3.250.81–6.49
Yellow cards
54%
17%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.082.325.41safe2.03–4.131.19–3.453.23–7.58safer1.77–4.400.90–3.742.67–8.14
Red cards
15%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction0.180.130.31safe0.02–0.340.00–0.310.00–0.65safer0.00–0.490.00–0.450.00–0.94
GK saves
56%
15%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.542.646.19safe2.11–4.981.09–4.203.20–9.18safer1.72–5.370.66–4.622.38–9.99
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.97 0.00–1.94 0.00–2.19 | 1.88 1.03–2.73 0.80–2.96 | 2.85 1.03–4.67 0.55–5.15 | 19% 22% 59% |
| Shots on target | 3.63 1.77–5.50 1.28–5.99 | 5.57 3.83–7.32 3.36–7.78 | 9.21 5.60–12.81 4.65–13.77 | 21% 68% |
| Total shots | 11.23 7.30–15.15 6.21–16.24 | 15.29 11.73–18.86 10.77–19.82 | 26.52 19.04–34.01 16.99–36.06 | 19% 76% |
| Shots in box | 6.59 3.65–9.54 2.82–10.36 | 9.61 6.93–12.30 6.20–13.03 | 16.21 10.58–21.83 9.02–23.40 | 19% 73% |
| Blocked shots | 2.72 0.84–4.60 0.30–5.15 | 3.80 2.14–5.45 1.65–5.94 | 6.52 2.99–10.06 1.95–11.09 | 27% 15% 59% |
| Corners | 3.81 1.60–6.02 1.02–6.60 | 5.37 3.37–7.37 2.83–7.90 | 9.18 4.96–13.39 3.86–14.50 | 25% 64% |
| Possession % | 43.07 36.28–49.86 34.61–51.53 | 57.36 50.57–64.14 48.90–65.81 | — | 18% 78% |
| Passes | 368 301–435 282–453 | 473 407–540 389–557 | 841 707–975 671–1010 | 19% 81% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.75 59.73–67.78 58.43–69.08 | 76.11 71.78–80.43 70.47–81.74 | — | 94% |
| Fouls | 16.45 13.62–19.29 12.86–20.05 | 13.98 11.03–16.92 10.28–17.67 | 30.43 24.65–36.21 23.14–37.72 | 64% 29% |
| Offsides | 1.79 0.63–2.95 0.32–3.25 | 1.86 0.77–2.96 0.48–3.25 | 3.65 1.40–5.90 0.81–6.49 | 38% 22% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 3.08 2.03–4.13 1.77–4.40 | 2.32 1.19–3.45 0.90–3.74 | 5.41 3.23–7.58 2.67–8.14 | 54% 17% 29% |
| Red cards | 0.18 0.02–0.34 0.00–0.49 | 0.13 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.31 0.00–0.65 0.00–0.94 | 15% 75% |
| GK saves | 3.54 2.11–4.98 1.72–5.37 | 2.64 1.09–4.20 0.66–4.62 | 6.19 3.20–9.18 2.38–9.99 | 56% 15% 28% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.