Premier League·Regular Season - 13·
Premier League·Regular Season - 13·Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
27%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.111.402.51safe0.14–2.080.54–2.250.69–4.33safer0.00–2.330.32–2.480.21–4.81
Shots on target
38%
14%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.994.408.40safe2.13–5.862.66–6.154.79–12.00safer1.64–6.352.20–6.613.84–12.96
Total shots
43%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8113.2726.08safe8.89–16.749.71–16.8318.60–33.57safer7.80–17.838.75–17.7916.55–35.62
Shots in box
42%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction7.708.0415.74safe4.76–10.655.36–10.7210.12–21.37safer3.93–11.484.62–11.468.55–22.93
Blocked shots
42%
16%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.353.346.69safe1.47–5.241.68–4.993.15–10.22safer0.93–5.781.19–5.482.12–11.26
Corners
43%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction5.075.0810.15safe2.86–7.283.08–7.085.94–14.37safer2.28–7.862.55–7.624.83–15.47
Possession %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction41.7858.76safe34.99–48.5751.98–65.55safer33.32–50.2450.31–67.22
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction311455766safe243–378389–521632–899safer225–396371–539596–935
Pass accuracy %
94%
homeawayprediction58.2670.87safe54.23–62.2966.54–75.19safer52.94–63.5865.23–76.50
Fouls
70%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction17.0013.5630.56safe14.16–19.8310.62–16.5124.78–36.34safer13.40–20.599.87–17.2523.27–37.84
Offsides
61%
17%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.741.644.38safe1.58–3.900.55–2.742.12–6.63safer1.27–4.200.26–3.021.54–7.22
Yellow cards
49%
18%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.642.194.83safe1.59–3.691.06–3.322.65–7.00safer1.32–3.950.77–3.612.09–7.56
Red cards
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.150.28safe0.00–0.290.00–0.330.00–0.62safer0.00–0.440.00–0.470.00–0.91
GK saves
43%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.852.725.57safe1.42–4.291.17–4.282.58–8.57safer1.03–4.680.74–4.701.77–9.38
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.11 0.14–2.08 0.00–2.33 | 1.40 0.54–2.25 0.32–2.48 | 2.51 0.69–4.33 0.21–4.81 | 30% 27% 44% |
| Shots on target | 3.99 2.13–5.86 1.64–6.35 | 4.40 2.66–6.15 2.20–6.61 | 8.40 4.79–12.00 3.84–12.96 | 38% 14% 49% |
| Total shots | 12.81 8.89–16.74 7.80–17.83 | 13.27 9.71–16.83 8.75–17.79 | 26.08 18.60–33.57 16.55–35.62 | 43% 50% |
| Shots in box | 7.70 4.76–10.65 3.93–11.48 | 8.04 5.36–10.72 4.62–11.46 | 15.74 10.12–21.37 8.55–22.93 | 42% 48% |
| Blocked shots | 3.35 1.47–5.24 0.93–5.78 | 3.34 1.68–4.99 1.19–5.48 | 6.69 3.15–10.22 2.12–11.26 | 42% 16% 42% |
| Corners | 5.07 2.86–7.28 2.28–7.86 | 5.08 3.08–7.08 2.55–7.62 | 10.15 5.94–14.37 4.83–15.47 | 43% 44% |
| Possession % | 41.78 34.99–48.57 33.32–50.24 | 58.76 51.98–65.55 50.31–67.22 | — | 14% 83% |
| Passes | 311 243–378 225–396 | 455 389–521 371–539 | 766 632–899 596–935 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 58.26 54.23–62.29 52.94–63.58 | 70.87 66.54–75.19 65.23–76.50 | — | 94% |
| Fouls | 17.00 14.16–19.83 13.40–20.59 | 13.56 10.62–16.51 9.87–17.25 | 30.56 24.78–36.34 23.27–37.84 | 70% 24% |
| Offsides | 2.74 1.58–3.90 1.27–4.20 | 1.64 0.55–2.74 0.26–3.02 | 4.38 2.12–6.63 1.54–7.22 | 61% 17% 22% |
| Yellow cards | 2.64 1.59–3.69 1.32–3.95 | 2.19 1.06–3.32 0.77–3.61 | 4.83 2.65–7.00 2.09–7.56 | 49% 18% 33% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.15 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.47 | 0.28 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.91 | 77% |
| GK saves | 2.85 1.42–4.29 1.03–4.68 | 2.72 1.17–4.28 0.74–4.70 | 5.57 2.58–8.57 1.77–9.38 | 43% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.