Premier League·Regular Season - 21·
Premier League·Regular Season - 21·Predicted match statistics
Goals
55%
23%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.032.80safe0.81–2.750.17–1.880.98–4.63safer0.56–3.000.00–2.110.50–5.11
Shots on target
65%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.453.769.21safe3.59–7.312.01–5.505.60–12.81safer3.10–7.801.55–5.964.65–13.77
Total shots
81%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction16.4111.2727.69safe12.49–20.347.71–14.8420.20–35.18safer11.40–21.436.75–15.8018.15–37.23
Shots in box
74%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction10.417.2417.65safe7.47–13.364.56–9.9212.03–23.27safer6.64–14.183.82–10.6610.46–24.84
Blocked shots
66%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.452.827.27safe2.56–6.331.17–4.483.73–10.80safer2.02–6.870.68–4.972.70–11.84
Corners
68%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction6.154.1710.32safe3.93–8.362.17–6.176.10–14.53safer3.36–8.941.63–6.705.00–15.64
Possession %
88%
homeawayprediction60.1739.45safe53.38–66.9632.67–46.24safer51.71–68.6331.00–47.91
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction492295787safe425–559228–361653–921safer407–578211–379617–956
Pass accuracy %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction70.7665.16safe66.73–74.7960.83–69.48safer65.43–76.0859.52–70.79
Fouls
15%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0717.1729.24safe9.24–14.9114.22–20.1123.46–35.02safer8.48–15.6713.47–20.8621.95–36.53
Offsides
21%
17%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction1.592.724.31safe0.43–2.751.63–3.812.06–6.56safer0.13–3.051.34–4.101.47–7.15
Yellow cards
22%
17%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction1.722.884.60safe0.68–2.771.75–4.012.42–6.78safer0.41–3.041.46–4.301.87–7.34
Red cards
78%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.160.27safe0.00–0.260.00–0.350.00–0.61safer0.00–0.410.00–0.480.00–0.90
GK saves
27%
15%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.683.686.37safe1.25–4.122.13–5.243.37–9.36safer0.86–4.501.70–5.662.56–10.17
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.78 0.81–2.75 0.56–3.00 | 1.03 0.17–1.88 0.00–2.11 | 2.80 0.98–4.63 0.50–5.11 | 55% 23% 22% |
| Shots on target | 5.45 3.59–7.31 3.10–7.80 | 3.76 2.01–5.50 1.55–5.96 | 9.21 5.60–12.81 4.65–13.77 | 65% 23% |
| Total shots | 16.41 12.49–20.34 11.40–21.43 | 11.27 7.71–14.84 6.75–15.80 | 27.69 20.20–35.18 18.15–37.23 | 81% 14% |
| Shots in box | 10.41 7.47–13.36 6.64–14.18 | 7.24 4.56–9.92 3.82–10.66 | 17.65 12.03–23.27 10.46–24.84 | 74% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 4.45 2.56–6.33 2.02–6.87 | 2.82 1.17–4.48 0.68–4.97 | 7.27 3.73–10.80 2.70–11.84 | 66% 21% |
| Corners | 6.15 3.93–8.36 3.36–8.94 | 4.17 2.17–6.17 1.63–6.70 | 10.32 6.10–14.53 5.00–15.64 | 68% 22% |
| Possession % | 60.17 53.38–66.96 51.71–68.63 | 39.45 32.67–46.24 31.00–47.91 | — | 88% |
| Passes | 492 425–559 407–578 | 295 228–361 211–379 | 787 653–921 617–956 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.76 66.73–74.79 65.43–76.08 | 65.16 60.83–69.48 59.52–70.79 | — | 74% 22% |
| Fouls | 12.07 9.24–14.91 8.48–15.67 | 17.17 14.22–20.11 13.47–20.86 | 29.24 23.46–35.02 21.95–36.53 | 15% 80% |
| Offsides | 1.59 0.43–2.75 0.13–3.05 | 2.72 1.63–3.81 1.34–4.10 | 4.31 2.06–6.56 1.47–7.15 | 21% 17% 62% |
| Yellow cards | 1.72 0.68–2.77 0.41–3.04 | 2.88 1.75–4.01 1.46–4.30 | 4.60 2.42–6.78 1.87–7.34 | 22% 17% 62% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.35 0.00–0.48 | 0.27 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.90 | 78% 14% |
| GK saves | 2.68 1.25–4.12 0.86–4.50 | 3.68 2.13–5.24 1.70–5.66 | 6.37 3.37–9.36 2.56–10.17 | 27% 15% 58% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.