Premier League·Regular Season - 13·
Premier League·Regular Season - 13·Predicted match statistics
Goals
19%
22%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction0.971.912.88safe0.00–1.941.05–2.761.05–4.70safer0.00–2.190.82–2.990.57–5.18
Shots on target
23%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction3.715.429.13safe1.84–5.573.68–7.165.52–12.73safer1.35–6.063.21–7.634.56–13.69
Total shots
18%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6015.9027.50safe7.67–15.5212.34–19.4620.01–34.99safer6.58–16.6111.38–20.4217.96–37.04
Shots in box
15%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction6.4910.1116.60safe3.55–9.447.43–12.7910.98–22.23safer2.72–10.276.69–13.539.41–23.79
Blocked shots
23%
14%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction2.604.006.60safe0.72–4.492.35–5.653.07–10.14safer0.18–5.031.85–6.152.03–11.17
Corners
29%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction4.215.429.63safe2.00–6.433.42–7.425.42–13.85safer1.43–7.002.89–7.954.31–14.95
Possession %
86%
homeawayprediction40.3259.96safe33.53–47.1153.18–66.74safer31.86–48.7851.50–68.42
Passes
91%
homeawaytotalprediction328489817safe261–395423–556684–951safer243–414405–573648–987
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction62.9576.71safe58.92–66.9872.38–81.03safer57.62–68.2771.07–82.34
Fouls
56%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction15.8614.5430.40safe13.03–18.7011.59–17.4824.62–36.18safer12.27–19.4610.84–18.2323.11–37.69
Offsides
38%
19%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.212.324.52safe1.05–3.371.22–3.412.27–6.78safer0.74–3.670.94–3.701.68–7.37
Yellow cards
45%
18%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.732.485.21safe1.68–3.781.35–3.613.03–7.39safer1.41–4.041.06–3.902.47–7.95
Red cards
18%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction0.220.140.36safe0.06–0.380.00–0.320.01–0.71safer0.00–0.530.00–0.460.00–0.99
GK saves
55%
15%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.542.696.23safe2.11–4.981.13–4.253.24–9.23safer1.72–5.370.71–4.672.43–10.04
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.97 0.00–1.94 0.00–2.19 | 1.91 1.05–2.76 0.82–2.99 | 2.88 1.05–4.70 0.57–5.18 | 19% 22% 59% |
| Shots on target | 3.71 1.84–5.57 1.35–6.06 | 5.42 3.68–7.16 3.21–7.63 | 9.13 5.52–12.73 4.56–13.69 | 23% 66% |
| Total shots | 11.60 7.67–15.52 6.58–16.61 | 15.90 12.34–19.46 11.38–20.42 | 27.50 20.01–34.99 17.96–37.04 | 18% 77% |
| Shots in box | 6.49 3.55–9.44 2.72–10.27 | 10.11 7.43–12.79 6.69–13.53 | 16.60 10.98–22.23 9.41–23.79 | 15% 78% |
| Blocked shots | 2.60 0.72–4.49 0.18–5.03 | 4.00 2.35–5.65 1.85–6.15 | 6.60 3.07–10.14 2.03–11.17 | 23% 14% 63% |
| Corners | 4.21 2.00–6.43 1.43–7.00 | 5.42 3.42–7.42 2.89–7.95 | 9.63 5.42–13.85 4.31–14.95 | 29% 59% |
| Possession % | 40.32 33.53–47.11 31.86–48.78 | 59.96 53.18–66.74 51.50–68.42 | — | 86% |
| Passes | 328 261–395 243–414 | 489 423–556 405–573 | 817 684–951 648–987 | 91% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.95 58.92–66.98 57.62–68.27 | 76.71 72.38–81.03 71.07–82.34 | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 15.86 13.03–18.70 12.27–19.46 | 14.54 11.59–17.48 10.84–18.23 | 30.40 24.62–36.18 23.11–37.69 | 56% 37% |
| Offsides | 2.21 1.05–3.37 0.74–3.67 | 2.32 1.22–3.41 0.94–3.70 | 4.52 2.27–6.78 1.68–7.37 | 38% 19% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 2.73 1.68–3.78 1.41–4.04 | 2.48 1.35–3.61 1.06–3.90 | 5.21 3.03–7.39 2.47–7.95 | 45% 18% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.22 0.06–0.38 0.00–0.53 | 0.14 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.36 0.01–0.71 0.00–0.99 | 18% 72% |
| GK saves | 3.54 2.11–4.98 1.72–5.37 | 2.69 1.13–4.25 0.71–4.67 | 6.23 3.24–9.23 2.43–10.04 | 55% 15% 29% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.