Premier League·Regular Season - 23·
Premier League·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
71%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.310.803.10safe1.34–3.270.00–1.651.28–4.92safer1.09–3.530.00–1.880.80–5.40
Shots on target
83%
homeawaytotalprediction6.723.209.92safe4.85–8.581.46–4.946.31–13.52safer4.36–9.070.99–5.415.36–14.48
Total shots
92%
homeawaytotalprediction17.589.6727.25safe13.65–21.506.11–13.2319.76–34.73safer12.56–22.595.15–14.1917.71–36.78
Shots in box
92%
homeawaytotalprediction12.165.8718.03safe9.22–15.103.19–8.5512.41–23.66safer8.39–15.932.46–9.2910.84–25.22
Blocked shots
71%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction4.432.486.91safe2.55–6.310.83–4.143.37–10.45safer2.00–6.850.34–4.632.34–11.48
Corners
76%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction6.443.6710.11safe4.23–8.651.67–5.675.90–14.32safer3.65–9.231.14–6.204.79–15.43
Possession %
93%
homeawayprediction63.2337.49safe56.44–70.0230.70–44.27safer54.77–71.6929.03–45.94
Passes
98%
homeawaytotalprediction553306859safe486–620240–373726–993safer468–638222–390690–1029
Pass accuracy %
91%
homeawayprediction76.7265.97safe72.69–80.7561.65–70.30safer71.40–82.0460.34–71.60
Fouls
29%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0615.4828.54safe10.22–15.8912.53–18.4222.75–34.32safer9.46–16.6511.79–19.1721.25–35.82
Offsides
42%
20%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.212.134.34safe1.05–3.371.03–3.222.08–6.59safer0.75–3.670.75–3.511.50–7.18
Yellow cards
21%
16%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction1.813.054.86safe0.76–2.861.92–4.182.68–7.03safer0.49–3.121.63–4.472.12–7.59
Red cards
78%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.170.26safe0.00–0.250.00–0.360.00–0.61safer0.00–0.400.00–0.490.00–0.89
GK saves
19%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction2.494.266.75safe1.05–3.932.70–5.813.76–9.74safer0.67–4.312.28–6.242.94–10.55
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.31 1.34–3.27 1.09–3.53 | 0.80 0.00–1.65 0.00–1.88 | 3.10 1.28–4.92 0.80–5.40 | 71% 17% |
| Shots on target | 6.72 4.85–8.58 4.36–9.07 | 3.20 1.46–4.94 0.99–5.41 | 9.92 6.31–13.52 5.36–14.48 | 83% |
| Total shots | 17.58 13.65–21.50 12.56–22.59 | 9.67 6.11–13.23 5.15–14.19 | 27.25 19.76–34.73 17.71–36.78 | 92% |
| Shots in box | 12.16 9.22–15.10 8.39–15.93 | 5.87 3.19–8.55 2.46–9.29 | 18.03 12.41–23.66 10.84–25.22 | 92% |
| Blocked shots | 4.43 2.55–6.31 2.00–6.85 | 2.48 0.83–4.14 0.34–4.63 | 6.91 3.37–10.45 2.34–11.48 | 71% 17% |
| Corners | 6.44 4.23–8.65 3.65–9.23 | 3.67 1.67–5.67 1.14–6.20 | 10.11 5.90–14.32 4.79–15.43 | 76% 15% |
| Possession % | 63.23 56.44–70.02 54.77–71.69 | 37.49 30.70–44.27 29.03–45.94 | — | 93% |
| Passes | 553 486–620 468–638 | 306 240–373 222–390 | 859 726–993 690–1029 | 98% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.72 72.69–80.75 71.40–82.04 | 65.97 61.65–70.30 60.34–71.60 | — | 91% |
| Fouls | 13.06 10.22–15.89 9.46–16.65 | 15.48 12.53–18.42 11.79–19.17 | 28.54 22.75–34.32 21.25–35.82 | 29% 64% |
| Offsides | 2.21 1.05–3.37 0.75–3.67 | 2.13 1.03–3.22 0.75–3.51 | 4.34 2.08–6.59 1.50–7.18 | 42% 20% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.81 0.76–2.86 0.49–3.12 | 3.05 1.92–4.18 1.63–4.47 | 4.86 2.68–7.03 2.12–7.59 | 21% 16% 63% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.17 0.00–0.36 0.00–0.49 | 0.26 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.89 | 78% 15% |
| GK saves | 2.49 1.05–3.93 0.67–4.31 | 4.26 2.70–5.81 2.28–6.24 | 6.75 3.76–9.74 2.94–10.55 | 19% 69% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+