Premier League·Regular Season - 14·
Premier League·Regular Season - 14·Predicted match statistics
Goals
60%
22%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction1.890.932.82safe0.92–2.860.08–1.791.00–4.64safer0.67–3.110.00–2.010.52–5.12
Shots on target
65%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.223.568.79safe3.36–7.091.82–5.305.18–12.39safer2.87–7.581.35–5.774.23–13.35
Total shots
80%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction15.8310.9226.75safe11.91–19.757.35–14.4819.26–34.23safer10.81–20.856.40–15.4417.21–36.29
Shots in box
74%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction9.766.6816.44safe6.82–12.704.00–9.3610.82–22.06safer5.99–13.533.26–10.109.25–23.63
Blocked shots
63%
14%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.002.616.61safe2.12–5.890.95–4.263.08–10.15safer1.58–6.430.46–4.752.04–11.18
Corners
71%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction6.354.0410.40safe4.14–8.572.04–6.056.18–14.61safer3.56–9.141.51–6.585.08–15.72
Possession %
72%
24%
homeawayprediction55.8445.06safe49.05–62.6338.27–51.84safer47.38–64.3036.60–53.51
Passes
75%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction437354792safe370–505288–421658–925safer352–523270–438622–961
Pass accuracy %
63%
32%
homeawayprediction67.8564.82safe63.82–71.8860.50–69.15safer62.53–73.1759.19–70.46
Fouls
25%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7317.0130.74safe10.89–16.5714.06–19.9524.96–36.52safer10.14–17.3213.32–20.7023.45–38.02
Offsides
48%
22%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.971.543.51safe0.81–3.130.45–2.631.25–5.76safer0.50–3.430.16–2.920.66–6.35
Yellow cards
21%
16%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction1.933.185.11safe0.88–2.982.05–4.312.93–7.29safer0.61–3.251.76–4.602.37–7.84
Red cards
78%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.170.26safe0.00–0.260.00–0.350.00–0.61safer0.00–0.410.00–0.490.00–0.89
GK saves
27%
15%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.523.526.04safe1.08–3.961.97–5.083.05–9.03safer0.70–4.341.54–5.502.24–9.85
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.89 0.92–2.86 0.67–3.11 | 0.93 0.08–1.79 0.00–2.01 | 2.82 1.00–4.64 0.52–5.12 | 60% 22% 18% |
| Shots on target | 5.22 3.36–7.09 2.87–7.58 | 3.56 1.82–5.30 1.35–5.77 | 8.79 5.18–12.39 4.23–13.35 | 65% 23% |
| Total shots | 15.83 11.91–19.75 10.81–20.85 | 10.92 7.35–14.48 6.40–15.44 | 26.75 19.26–34.23 17.21–36.29 | 80% 15% |
| Shots in box | 9.76 6.82–12.70 5.99–13.53 | 6.68 4.00–9.36 3.26–10.10 | 16.44 10.82–22.06 9.25–23.63 | 74% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 4.00 2.12–5.89 1.58–6.43 | 2.61 0.95–4.26 0.46–4.75 | 6.61 3.08–10.15 2.04–11.18 | 63% 14% 23% |
| Corners | 6.35 4.14–8.57 3.56–9.14 | 4.04 2.04–6.05 1.51–6.58 | 10.40 6.18–14.61 5.08–15.72 | 71% 19% |
| Possession % | 55.84 49.05–62.63 47.38–64.30 | 45.06 38.27–51.84 36.60–53.51 | — | 72% 24% |
| Passes | 437 370–505 352–523 | 354 288–421 270–438 | 792 658–925 622–961 | 75% 24% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.85 63.82–71.88 62.53–73.17 | 64.82 60.50–69.15 59.19–70.46 | — | 63% 32% |
| Fouls | 13.73 10.89–16.57 10.14–17.32 | 17.01 14.06–19.95 13.32–20.70 | 30.74 24.96–36.52 23.45–38.02 | 25% 69% |
| Offsides | 1.97 0.81–3.13 0.50–3.43 | 1.54 0.45–2.63 0.16–2.92 | 3.51 1.25–5.76 0.66–6.35 | 48% 22% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.93 0.88–2.98 0.61–3.25 | 3.18 2.05–4.31 1.76–4.60 | 5.11 2.93–7.29 2.37–7.84 | 21% 16% 63% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.35 0.00–0.49 | 0.26 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.89 | 78% 14% |
| GK saves | 2.52 1.08–3.96 0.70–4.34 | 3.52 1.97–5.08 1.54–5.50 | 6.04 3.05–9.03 2.24–9.85 | 27% 15% 58% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.