Premier League·Regular Season - 27·
Premier League·Regular Season - 27·Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
25%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.191.522.70safe0.22–2.160.66–2.370.88–4.53safer0.00–2.410.43–2.600.40–5.01
Shots on target
36%
13%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.254.859.10safe2.38–6.113.11–6.605.49–12.70safer1.89–6.602.64–7.064.54–13.66
Total shots
36%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5613.9426.50safe8.63–16.4810.38–17.5119.01–33.99safer7.54–17.579.42–18.4616.96–36.04
Shots in box
34%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction7.718.8816.60safe4.77–10.666.20–11.5610.97–22.22safer3.94–11.495.46–12.309.41–23.79
Blocked shots
31%
15%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.933.726.64safe1.05–4.812.06–5.373.11–10.18safer0.50–5.351.57–5.862.07–11.21
Corners
37%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.705.269.96safe2.49–6.913.26–7.265.74–14.17safer1.91–7.492.73–7.794.64–15.28
Possession %
36%
59%
homeawayprediction47.8852.84safe41.09–54.6746.06–59.63safer39.42–56.3444.39–61.30
Passes
43%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction383404787safe316–450337–470653–920safer298–469320–488617–956
Pass accuracy %
23%
72%
homeawayprediction64.8169.92safe60.78–68.8465.59–74.24safer59.49–70.1364.28–75.55
Fouls
67%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction16.7213.8030.53safe13.89–19.5610.86–16.7524.74–36.31safer13.13–20.3210.11–17.4923.24–37.81
Offsides
37%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.853.60safe0.60–2.920.75–2.941.35–5.86safer0.30–3.220.46–3.230.76–6.45
Yellow cards
41%
18%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.522.485.01safe1.47–3.571.36–3.612.83–7.18safer1.21–3.841.06–3.902.27–7.74
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.110.24safe0.00–0.290.00–0.300.00–0.59safer0.00–0.440.00–0.430.00–0.87
GK saves
46%
16%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.293.026.31safe1.85–4.721.46–4.573.31–9.30safer1.46–5.111.04–5.002.50–10.11
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.19 0.22–2.16 0.00–2.41 | 1.52 0.66–2.37 0.43–2.60 | 2.70 0.88–4.53 0.40–5.01 | 30% 25% 45% |
| Shots on target | 4.25 2.38–6.11 1.89–6.60 | 4.85 3.11–6.60 2.64–7.06 | 9.10 5.49–12.70 4.54–13.66 | 36% 13% 51% |
| Total shots | 12.56 8.63–16.48 7.54–17.57 | 13.94 10.38–17.51 9.42–18.46 | 26.50 19.01–33.99 16.96–36.04 | 36% 57% |
| Shots in box | 7.71 4.77–10.66 3.94–11.49 | 8.88 6.20–11.56 5.46–12.30 | 16.60 10.97–22.22 9.41–23.79 | 34% 56% |
| Blocked shots | 2.93 1.05–4.81 0.50–5.35 | 3.72 2.06–5.37 1.57–5.86 | 6.64 3.11–10.18 2.07–11.21 | 31% 15% 54% |
| Corners | 4.70 2.49–6.91 1.91–7.49 | 5.26 3.26–7.26 2.73–7.79 | 9.96 5.74–14.17 4.64–15.28 | 37% 51% |
| Possession % | 47.88 41.09–54.67 39.42–56.34 | 52.84 46.06–59.63 44.39–61.30 | — | 36% 59% |
| Passes | 383 316–450 298–469 | 404 337–470 320–488 | 787 653–920 617–956 | 43% 57% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.81 60.78–68.84 59.49–70.13 | 69.92 65.59–74.24 64.28–75.55 | — | 23% 72% |
| Fouls | 16.72 13.89–19.56 13.13–20.32 | 13.80 10.86–16.75 10.11–17.49 | 30.53 24.74–36.31 23.24–37.81 | 67% 27% |
| Offsides | 1.76 0.60–2.92 0.30–3.22 | 1.85 0.75–2.94 0.46–3.23 | 3.60 1.35–5.86 0.76–6.45 | 37% 22% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 2.52 1.47–3.57 1.21–3.84 | 2.48 1.36–3.61 1.06–3.90 | 5.01 2.83–7.18 2.27–7.74 | 41% 18% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.24 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.87 | 80% |
| GK saves | 3.29 1.85–4.72 1.46–5.11 | 3.02 1.46–4.57 1.04–5.00 | 6.31 3.31–9.30 2.50–10.11 | 46% 16% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.