Premier League·Regular Season - 14·
Premier League·Regular Season - 14·Predicted match statistics
Goals
50%
27%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.440.912.35safe0.47–2.410.05–1.760.53–4.17safer0.22–2.660.00–1.990.05–4.65
Shots on target
65%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.432.867.29safe2.57–6.291.12–4.603.68–10.89safer2.08–6.780.65–5.072.73–11.85
Total shots
79%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction12.878.6321.50safe8.95–16.795.06–12.1914.01–28.98safer7.85–17.894.10–13.1511.96–31.03
Shots in box
74%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction8.065.2713.33safe5.12–11.002.58–7.957.70–18.95safer4.29–11.831.85–8.686.14–20.52
Blocked shots
61%
16%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction3.272.115.38safe1.39–5.150.46–3.761.84–8.91safer0.84–5.690.00–4.260.81–9.95
Corners
64%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.383.809.18safe3.16–7.591.80–5.804.97–13.39safer2.59–8.171.27–6.343.86–14.50
Possession %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction51.5348.39safe44.74–58.3241.61–55.18safer43.07–59.9939.94–56.85
Passes
60%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction386355742safe319–453289–422608–875safer301–472271–439572–911
Pass accuracy %
31%
64%
homeawayprediction59.6763.01safe55.64–63.7058.68–67.33safer54.35–64.9957.38–68.64
Fouls
52%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction14.9714.1929.16safe12.13–17.8011.25–17.1323.37–34.94safer11.37–18.5610.50–17.8821.87–36.44
Offsides
44%
22%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.951.713.66safe0.79–3.110.62–2.801.40–5.91safer0.49–3.410.33–3.090.81–6.50
Yellow cards
37%
18%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.482.735.20safe1.43–3.531.60–3.853.02–7.38safer1.16–3.791.30–4.152.47–7.94
Red cards
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.140.28safe0.00–0.290.00–0.330.00–0.62safer0.00–0.440.00–0.460.00–0.91
GK saves
26%
17%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.093.045.13safe0.66–3.531.48–4.592.14–8.12safer0.27–3.921.06–5.021.33–8.93
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.44 0.47–2.41 0.22–2.66 | 0.91 0.05–1.76 0.00–1.99 | 2.35 0.53–4.17 0.05–4.65 | 50% 27% 24% |
| Shots on target | 4.43 2.57–6.29 2.08–6.78 | 2.86 1.12–4.60 0.65–5.07 | 7.29 3.68–10.89 2.73–11.85 | 65% 22% |
| Total shots | 12.87 8.95–16.79 7.85–17.89 | 8.63 5.06–12.19 4.10–13.15 | 21.50 14.01–28.98 11.96–31.03 | 79% 15% |
| Shots in box | 8.06 5.12–11.00 4.29–11.83 | 5.27 2.58–7.95 1.85–8.68 | 13.33 7.70–18.95 6.14–20.52 | 74% 18% |
| Blocked shots | 3.27 1.39–5.15 0.84–5.69 | 2.11 0.46–3.76 0.00–4.26 | 5.38 1.84–8.91 0.81–9.95 | 61% 16% 23% |
| Corners | 5.38 3.16–7.59 2.59–8.17 | 3.80 1.80–5.80 1.27–6.34 | 9.18 4.97–13.39 3.86–14.50 | 64% 24% |
| Possession % | 51.53 44.74–58.32 43.07–59.99 | 48.39 41.61–55.18 39.94–56.85 | — | 55% 40% |
| Passes | 386 319–453 301–472 | 355 289–422 271–439 | 742 608–875 572–911 | 60% 40% |
| Pass accuracy % | 59.67 55.64–63.70 54.35–64.99 | 63.01 58.68–67.33 57.38–68.64 | — | 31% 64% |
| Fouls | 14.97 12.13–17.80 11.37–18.56 | 14.19 11.25–17.13 10.50–17.88 | 29.16 23.37–34.94 21.87–36.44 | 52% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.95 0.79–3.11 0.49–3.41 | 1.71 0.62–2.80 0.33–3.09 | 3.66 1.40–5.91 0.81–6.50 | 44% 22% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 2.48 1.43–3.53 1.16–3.79 | 2.73 1.60–3.85 1.30–4.15 | 5.20 3.02–7.38 2.47–7.94 | 37% 18% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.28 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.91 | 77% |
| GK saves | 2.09 0.66–3.53 0.27–3.92 | 3.04 1.48–4.59 1.06–5.02 | 5.13 2.14–8.12 1.33–8.93 | 26% 17% 58% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.