Premier League·Regular Season - 21·
Premier League·Regular Season - 21·Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
29%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.041.192.23safe0.07–2.010.33–2.040.41–4.05safer0.00–2.260.11–2.270.00–4.53
Shots on target
41%
15%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.583.697.27safe1.72–5.451.95–5.433.67–10.88safer1.23–5.941.48–5.902.71–11.83
Total shots
46%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4611.4122.88safe7.54–15.397.85–14.9815.39–30.36safer6.44–16.486.89–15.9413.34–32.41
Shots in box
43%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction7.047.2014.24safe4.10–9.984.52–9.888.62–19.87safer3.27–10.813.78–10.627.05–21.43
Blocked shots
40%
17%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.893.005.90safe1.01–4.781.35–4.662.36–9.43safer0.47–5.320.86–5.151.33–10.47
Corners
52%
13%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.954.319.26safe2.74–7.162.31–6.315.04–13.47safer2.16–7.741.77–6.843.94–14.58
Possession %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction51.1148.48safe44.32–57.9041.69–55.26safer42.65–59.5740.02–56.94
Passes
67%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction394342735safe326–461275–408602–869safer308–479258–426566–905
Pass accuracy %
32%
63%
homeawayprediction60.0363.20safe56.00–64.0658.88–67.52safer54.71–65.3557.57–68.83
Fouls
35%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6415.2428.88safe10.80–16.4712.30–18.1923.10–34.66safer10.04–17.2311.55–18.9421.59–36.17
Offsides
34%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.752.003.76safe0.59–2.910.91–3.091.50–6.01safer0.29–3.210.62–3.380.91–6.60
Yellow cards
33%
17%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.422.905.32safe1.37–3.471.77–4.033.14–7.50safer1.10–3.741.48–4.322.58–8.05
Red cards
74%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction0.150.170.32safe0.00–0.310.00–0.360.00–0.67safer0.00–0.460.00–0.490.00–0.95
GK saves
38%
18%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.412.564.97safe0.97–3.841.01–4.121.98–7.96safer0.58–4.230.58–4.541.16–8.77
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.04 0.07–2.01 0.00–2.26 | 1.19 0.33–2.04 0.11–2.27 | 2.23 0.41–4.05 0.00–4.53 | 32% 29% 39% |
| Shots on target | 3.58 1.72–5.45 1.23–5.94 | 3.69 1.95–5.43 1.48–5.90 | 7.27 3.67–10.88 2.71–11.83 | 41% 15% 44% |
| Total shots | 11.46 7.54–15.39 6.44–16.48 | 11.41 7.85–14.98 6.89–15.94 | 22.88 15.39–30.36 13.34–32.41 | 46% 45% |
| Shots in box | 7.04 4.10–9.98 3.27–10.81 | 7.20 4.52–9.88 3.78–10.62 | 14.24 8.62–19.87 7.05–21.43 | 43% 46% |
| Blocked shots | 2.89 1.01–4.78 0.47–5.32 | 3.00 1.35–4.66 0.86–5.15 | 5.90 2.36–9.43 1.33–10.47 | 40% 17% 43% |
| Corners | 4.95 2.74–7.16 2.16–7.74 | 4.31 2.31–6.31 1.77–6.84 | 9.26 5.04–13.47 3.94–14.58 | 52% 13% 35% |
| Possession % | 51.11 44.32–57.90 42.65–59.57 | 48.48 41.69–55.26 40.02–56.94 | — | 54% 41% |
| Passes | 394 326–461 308–479 | 342 275–408 258–426 | 735 602–869 566–905 | 67% 33% |
| Pass accuracy % | 60.03 56.00–64.06 54.71–65.35 | 63.20 58.88–67.52 57.57–68.83 | — | 32% 63% |
| Fouls | 13.64 10.80–16.47 10.04–17.23 | 15.24 12.30–18.19 11.55–18.94 | 28.88 23.10–34.66 21.59–36.17 | 35% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.75 0.59–2.91 0.29–3.21 | 2.00 0.91–3.09 0.62–3.38 | 3.76 1.50–6.01 0.91–6.60 | 34% 21% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 2.42 1.37–3.47 1.10–3.74 | 2.90 1.77–4.03 1.48–4.32 | 5.32 3.14–7.50 2.58–8.05 | 33% 17% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.15 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.17 0.00–0.36 0.00–0.49 | 0.32 0.00–0.67 0.00–0.95 | 74% 14% |
| GK saves | 2.41 0.97–3.84 0.58–4.23 | 2.56 1.01–4.12 0.58–4.54 | 4.97 1.98–7.96 1.16–8.77 | 38% 18% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+