Premier League·Regular Season - 14·
Premier League·Regular Season - 14·Predicted match statistics
Goals
61%
22%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction1.880.892.77safe0.92–2.850.03–1.740.95–4.59safer0.66–3.100.00–1.970.47–5.07
Shots on target
73%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction5.653.338.98safe3.79–7.511.59–5.075.38–12.59safer3.30–8.001.12–5.544.42–13.54
Total shots
82%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction15.4610.3325.80safe11.54–19.396.77–13.9018.31–33.28safer10.45–20.485.81–14.8616.26–35.33
Shots in box
84%
homeawaytotalprediction10.946.3917.32safe7.99–13.883.71–9.0711.70–22.95safer7.16–14.712.97–9.8110.13–24.51
Blocked shots
61%
14%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction4.062.796.84safe2.17–5.941.13–4.443.31–10.38safer1.63–6.480.64–4.932.27–11.41
Corners
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.363.6910.05safe4.15–8.571.69–5.695.83–14.26safer3.57–9.151.16–6.224.73–15.37
Possession %
88%
homeawayprediction60.4139.86safe53.62–67.2033.08–46.65safer51.95–68.8731.41–48.32
Passes
94%
homeawaytotalprediction523338861safe456–591271–404728–995safer438–609254–422692–1031
Pass accuracy %
85%
homeawayprediction77.3768.89safe73.34–81.4064.57–73.22safer72.04–82.6963.26–74.53
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9514.6128.57safe11.11–16.7911.67–17.5622.78–34.35safer10.36–17.5510.92–18.3121.28–35.85
Offsides
57%
18%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.791.894.68safe1.63–3.950.79–2.982.43–6.93safer1.33–4.260.51–3.271.84–7.52
Yellow cards
31%
18%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.202.815.01safe1.15–3.251.68–3.932.83–7.19safer0.89–3.521.39–4.232.27–7.74
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.140.24safe0.00–0.260.00–0.320.00–0.58safer0.00–0.410.00–0.460.00–0.87
GK saves
24%
15%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction2.453.646.09safe1.01–3.882.09–5.203.10–9.08safer0.62–4.271.66–5.622.29–9.90
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.88 0.92–2.85 0.66–3.10 | 0.89 0.03–1.74 0.00–1.97 | 2.77 0.95–4.59 0.47–5.07 | 61% 22% 17% |
| Shots on target | 5.65 3.79–7.51 3.30–8.00 | 3.33 1.59–5.07 1.12–5.54 | 8.98 5.38–12.59 4.42–13.54 | 73% 17% |
| Total shots | 15.46 11.54–19.39 10.45–20.48 | 10.33 6.77–13.90 5.81–14.86 | 25.80 18.31–33.28 16.26–35.33 | 82% 13% |
| Shots in box | 10.94 7.99–13.88 7.16–14.71 | 6.39 3.71–9.07 2.97–9.81 | 17.32 11.70–22.95 10.13–24.51 | 84% |
| Blocked shots | 4.06 2.17–5.94 1.63–6.48 | 2.79 1.13–4.44 0.64–4.93 | 6.84 3.31–10.38 2.27–11.41 | 61% 14% 25% |
| Corners | 6.36 4.15–8.57 3.57–9.15 | 3.69 1.69–5.69 1.16–6.22 | 10.05 5.83–14.26 4.73–15.37 | 75% 16% |
| Possession % | 60.41 53.62–67.20 51.95–68.87 | 39.86 33.08–46.65 31.41–48.32 | — | 88% |
| Passes | 523 456–591 438–609 | 338 271–404 254–422 | 861 728–995 692–1031 | 94% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.37 73.34–81.40 72.04–82.69 | 68.89 64.57–73.22 63.26–74.53 | — | 85% |
| Fouls | 13.95 11.11–16.79 10.36–17.55 | 14.61 11.67–17.56 10.92–18.31 | 28.57 22.78–34.35 21.28–35.85 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 2.79 1.63–3.95 1.33–4.26 | 1.89 0.79–2.98 0.51–3.27 | 4.68 2.43–6.93 1.84–7.52 | 57% 18% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 2.20 1.15–3.25 0.89–3.52 | 2.81 1.68–3.93 1.39–4.23 | 5.01 2.83–7.19 2.27–7.74 | 31% 18% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.14 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.24 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.87 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.45 1.01–3.88 0.62–4.27 | 3.64 2.09–5.20 1.66–5.62 | 6.09 3.10–9.08 2.29–9.90 | 24% 15% 61% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+