Premier League·Regular Season - 22·
Premier League·Regular Season - 22·Predicted match statistics
Goals
29%
25%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.191.542.72safe0.22–2.150.68–2.390.90–4.55safer0.00–2.410.46–2.620.42–5.03
Shots on target
36%
13%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.084.668.74safe2.22–5.952.92–6.405.14–12.35safer1.73–6.442.45–6.874.18–13.30
Total shots
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0213.3626.38safe9.09–16.949.80–16.9318.89–33.87safer8.00–18.038.84–17.8816.84–35.92
Shots in box
27%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction7.149.0616.21safe4.20–10.096.38–11.7410.58–21.83safer3.37–10.925.64–12.489.02–23.40
Blocked shots
33%
15%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction3.273.917.19safe1.39–5.162.26–5.573.65–10.72safer0.85–5.701.77–6.062.62–11.76
Corners
39%
13%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.594.939.52safe2.38–6.802.93–6.935.31–13.73safer1.80–7.382.40–7.464.20–14.84
Possession %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction41.3158.35safe34.52–48.1051.56–65.13safer32.85–49.7749.89–66.80
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction350497846safe282–417430–563713–980safer264–435413–581677–1016
Pass accuracy %
92%
homeawayprediction66.7878.39safe62.75–70.8174.06–82.71safer61.46–72.1072.75–84.02
Fouls
47%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction14.9414.8629.80safe12.10–17.7811.91–17.8024.02–35.58safer11.35–18.5311.17–18.5522.51–37.09
Offsides
22%
16%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction1.933.095.02safe0.77–3.092.00–4.192.77–7.27safer0.46–3.391.71–4.482.18–7.86
Yellow cards
37%
18%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.342.554.90safe1.29–3.391.42–3.682.72–7.07safer1.03–3.661.13–3.972.16–7.63
Red cards
16%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction0.200.140.34safe0.04–0.360.00–0.330.00–0.69safer0.00–0.510.00–0.460.00–0.97
GK saves
46%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.092.805.89safe1.66–4.531.24–4.352.89–8.88safer1.27–4.910.81–4.782.08–9.69
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.19 0.22–2.15 0.00–2.41 | 1.54 0.68–2.39 0.46–2.62 | 2.72 0.90–4.55 0.42–5.03 | 29% 25% 45% |
| Shots on target | 4.08 2.22–5.95 1.73–6.44 | 4.66 2.92–6.40 2.45–6.87 | 8.74 5.14–12.35 4.18–13.30 | 36% 13% 51% |
| Total shots | 13.02 9.09–16.94 8.00–18.03 | 13.36 9.80–16.93 8.84–17.88 | 26.38 18.89–33.87 16.84–35.92 | 43% 49% |
| Shots in box | 7.14 4.20–10.09 3.37–10.92 | 9.06 6.38–11.74 5.64–12.48 | 16.21 10.58–21.83 9.02–23.40 | 27% 64% |
| Blocked shots | 3.27 1.39–5.16 0.85–5.70 | 3.91 2.26–5.57 1.77–6.06 | 7.19 3.65–10.72 2.62–11.76 | 33% 15% 52% |
| Corners | 4.59 2.38–6.80 1.80–7.38 | 4.93 2.93–6.93 2.40–7.46 | 9.52 5.31–13.73 4.20–14.84 | 39% 13% 48% |
| Possession % | 41.31 34.52–48.10 32.85–49.77 | 58.35 51.56–65.13 49.89–66.80 | — | 14% 83% |
| Passes | 350 282–417 264–435 | 497 430–563 413–581 | 846 713–980 677–1016 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.78 62.75–70.81 61.46–72.10 | 78.39 74.06–82.71 72.75–84.02 | — | 92% |
| Fouls | 14.94 12.10–17.78 11.35–18.53 | 14.86 11.91–17.80 11.17–18.55 | 29.80 24.02–35.58 22.51–37.09 | 47% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.93 0.77–3.09 0.46–3.39 | 3.09 2.00–4.19 1.71–4.48 | 5.02 2.77–7.27 2.18–7.86 | 22% 16% 61% |
| Yellow cards | 2.34 1.29–3.39 1.03–3.66 | 2.55 1.42–3.68 1.13–3.97 | 4.90 2.72–7.07 2.16–7.63 | 37% 18% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.20 0.04–0.36 0.00–0.51 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.34 0.00–0.69 0.00–0.97 | 16% 73% |
| GK saves | 3.09 1.66–4.53 1.27–4.91 | 2.80 1.24–4.35 0.81–4.78 | 5.89 2.89–8.88 2.08–9.69 | 46% 17% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.